2022 Big-Box Outlook
U.S. Research Report | 2021 Year End Review & Outlook
North America
A variety of factors across North America have impacted demand for
big-box industrial facilities. While most sectors struggled through the global COVID-19 pandemic, the industrial market continued to go against the grain. Core markets including the Inland Empire, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Chicago, Northern-Central New Jersey, Southern New Jersey-Eastern Pennsylvania and Toronto continue to be the destinations of choice for many occupiers, while emerging secondary markets that are near the fastest-growing population centers — and in close proximity to the most utilized logistics hubs in the region — continue to grow.
In this unique interactive report, we examine the North American big-box industrial market in 2021, which includes the seven core North American big-box markets and nine emerging secondary markets. We will highlight the fundamentals and look at demand factors, including demographics and logistics capabilities, and assess what lies ahead in the quarters ahead.
Introduction
Unless otherwise specified, all report data is through 2021.
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Disruptions in the supply chain persisted throughout 2021 and sparked immense change for occupiers of bulk product throughout North America. E-commerce growth, spurred by the permanent switch in consumer habits toward online shopping, continued to be a bright spot throughout the economic upheaval for the industrial sector. In 2021, e-commerce accounted for 13.2% of non-automobile retail sales and is expected to grow to 23% by 2025. Occupiers are responding to this continued change in consumers’ purchasing presence by expanding to more locations. This surge in occupancy resulted in 579.7 million square feet of occupancy gains at the end of 2021, and more than 270 million square feet of occupancy gains were recorded in the big-box market — a new year-end record.
Overview
North American
Building Inventory
Historical Data
200,000 - 499,999 SF
4,098
Big-box buildings
127
Fully vacant
1,018
Big-box buildings
41
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
899
Big-box buildings
31
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Northern California
Toronto
Northern-Central New Jersey
I-4 Corridor
Atlanta
Kansas City
Greater Phoenix
Dallas
Columbus
Cincinnati
Chicago
Indianapolis
Houston
Southern New Jersey-Eastern PA
Inland Empire
Memphis
Click each market for more information
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Other Industrial Research Reports
- Q4 2021 Industrial Market Outlook
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Disclaimer: The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
Historical data
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Toronto
Canada
Southern New Jersey
Eastern Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Northern-Central
California
Northern
Memphis
Tennessee
Kansas City
Missouri
Inland Empire
California
Indianapolis
Indiana
I-4 Corridor
Florida
Houston
Texas
Phoenix
Arizona
Dallas
Texas
Columbus
Ohio
Cincinnati
Ohio
Chicago
Illinois
Atlanta
Georgia
Click on each market for more information
Historical data
“Atlanta continues to experience tremendous growth. The market maintained its robust industrial activity in 2021 with a total year-end absorption of 30 million square feet. Atlanta’s vacancy is the lowest in history; average rents are at an all-time high and climbing; construction activity is nearly 40 million square feet, and demand continues to outpace supply. Atlanta is poised continued growth in 2022 with unprecedented tenant demand and asset valuation.”
Ben Logue, SIOR
Senior Vice President & Principal, Atlanta
Atlanta's bulk market greatly surpassed previous records in 2021, as numerous records were broken. Occupancy gains were the most significant achievement as the market topped 30 million square feet, amounting to over 70% of the absorption total for all of 2020. Transaction volume remained robust for the Atlanta industrial market as bulk tenants occupied 22 spaces larger than 500,000 square feet, totaling nearly 18 million square feet. As a result of this record-achieving feat, the overall vacancy rate for bulk product in Atlanta finished the year at 4.0%, a remarkable 690 basis point decline from the previous year.
Atlanta’s bulk market sets milestone year
Georgia
Atlanta
334
Big-box buildings
41
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
80
Big-box buildings
11
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
88
Big-box buildings
10
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
"Big-box activity in 2021 blew any previous year out of the water – record demand and unprecedented leasing pushed the vacancy rate down to 3.7%, by far the lowest ever recorded. Developers have responded to this demand, with more big-box space under construction at the end of the year than at any point in the market’s history. Rental rates have been reacting to the tight market as well, climbing faster than ever before, and expected to continue to climb throughout 2022."
Jack Rosenberg, SIOR
National Director, Logistics and Transportation Group Principal, Chicago
The Chicago industrial big-box market enjoyed a record-setting year in 2021. Unprecedented leasing and demand resulted in Chicago’s big-box vacancy rate plunging by 484 basis points during 2021 from 8.5% at the end of 2020 to an all-time low of 3.7%. The vacancy rate for the market’s biggest and most modern product has never been even remotely as low, with the previous record well above 5%. The tight market Chicago experienced in 2021 offers fewer opportunities to lease space, especially when demand exceeds the rate of new supply being introduced through speculative development or vacancies in second-generation buildings.
Chicago’s big-box product leading the market for every industrial metric
Illinois
Chicago
494
Big-box buildings
10
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
104
Big-box buildings
4
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
90
Big-box buildings
2
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
John B. Gartner III, SIOR
Senior Vice President & Principal, Cincinnati
The Cincinnati big-box market is particularly well-suited to meet the growing demand for faster delivery and the accompanying demand for warehousing and transportation. Cincinnati’s bulk market reached record occupancy levels as 7.8 million square feet of net absorption were recorded in 2021. This is a significant improvement from the 1.9 million square feet recorded a year ago and greater than the last two years combined. As the global spotlight shines on supply chain needs and struggles for commerce, so too will it shine on Greater Cincinnati’s key geographical and logistical role in providing solutions.
Bulk drives Cincinnati to record growth
Ohio
Cincinnati
132
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
39
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
20
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“With booming demand for big-box space, Columbus will continue to see high activity in industrial space in 2022. The ongoing pandemic has fueled the e-commerce sector, and Central Ohio is ideally situated to keep up with demand. Located within a ten-hour drive of half of the U.S. population, the Columbus market’s strategic location assists industrial tenants in reaching their customers. Record-breaking development continues in the market, primarily in the Southeast, East and West submarkets. Additionally, Rickenbacker Inland Port is a major point of access via air and rail, making Columbus logistically well-positioned for increased international cargo demand in the future.”
Michael Linder, SIOR
Senior Executive Vice President, Columbus
Strong momentum for the industrial big-box market continued for the Columbus market. Significant growth in e-commerce has benefitted the Columbus big-box market as leasing activity more than doubled year-over-year. The largest leases of the year were signed by prominent e-commerce companies, which continue to fuel activity in Central Ohio. The ongoing pandemic has caused the e-commerce industry to grow rapidly over the past 18 months, indicated by an influx of demand for prime warehouse and distribution space. As construction continues to rise, Columbus can expect continued activity throughout the new year as demand remains high for the bulk industrial sector.
Columbus big box market posts record year, recording 12.8 million square feet of net absorption
Ohio
Columbus
135
Big-box buildings
4
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
29
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
41
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“They say everything is bigger in Texas and that includes industrial real estate! The Dallas-Fort Worth market had nearly 60 million square feet under construction at the close of the year. To put it in perspective, we’re building the entire Austin industrial market at once. The demand for space continues to keep pace with what is being built largely due to the Dallas-Fort Worth market’s central location in the U.S., infrastructure, the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and competitive rental rates. Land is the most sought-after asset in the metroplex, pushing developers into new frontiers to satisfy the market’s appetite for space.”
James Ewing
Senior Associate, Dallas
The Dallas-Fort Worth big-box market posted records in all major categories, including occupancy gains, new supply and asking rental rates. With the continuation of the area’s population boom – currently close to 7.6 million residents – there is no shortage of labor. Conservative estimates predict the population will organically double in size over the next 30 years – arguably marking that the boom is just starting in Dallas. Overall vacancy levels dropped considerably year-over-year to 6.5%, down from the 10.9% recorded a year ago. While vacancy levels remain historically low, construction levels could push the rate much higher in the quarters to come. The development pipeline in Dallas has remained full throughout the pandemic as companies continue to expand their supply chains and the region solidifies itself as a major distribution hub.
The Dallas-Fort Worth big-box market shows no signs of cooling
Texas
Dallas
454
Big-box buildings
15
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
121
Big-box buildings
6
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
88
Big-box buildings
2
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“Houston’s big-box market has seen continued positive absorption and new construction growth in 2021. Houston’s port has also seen its busiest year ever. Year-over-year, the port surpassed its previous high-water mark for total loaded twenty-foot equivalent unit volume increased 7%. Material shortages, increased consumer demand and labor shortages in other port markets are all contributing factors to the record growth. Developers continue to seek viable land positions in Houston’s east and southeast submarkets to service this ever-expanding port activity. The COVID-19 pandemic and low-interest rates continue to fuel massive e-commerce growth. Amazon and Walmart have continued the rapid expansion of their distribution networks in the Houston MSA and across the U.S., with other competitors following suit to claim their piece of the pie. Same-day delivery and direct-to-consumer fulfillment needs are fueling the rapid increase in distribution space occupied by retailers. 2021 retail sales are estimated at roughly $4.5 trillion. Within that total is e-commerce (non-store) sales, which have grown nearly 20% to a range of $1.09 - $1.13 trillion. Developers continue to deliver new product in an attempt to meet this demand.”
Robert Alinger, SIOR
Principal & Director, Houston
2021 was a banner year for Houston industrial real estate. A number of factors contributed to record-setting deliveries and occupancy gains, including historically low-interest rates, increased port activity, e-commerce expansion, increased capital investment and continued pent-up consumer demand due to COVID-19. Each element contributed to a perfect storm, allowing the Houston market to absorb more than 18.3 million square feet of bulk warehouse space, where the 10-year historical average is just 5.8 million square feet. This level of growth was achieved despite labor and material shortage obstacles.
Houston’s industrial big-box market fueled by e-commerce expansion
Texas
Houston
247
Big-box buildings
17
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
43
Big-box buildings
4
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
27
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“Gaining national exposure as a growing market in both population and industrial tenant demand over the last three to five years, the I-4 Corridor has seen a large uptick in speculative development. In the trailing six months, the market has seen a surge in occupier activity, especially within the Fortune 100. Accompanying the increase in demand, we’re seeing the average size requirement grow — with over a handful of occupier requirements surpassing one million square feet.”
Robyn Hurrell
Executive Managing Director, Tampa
The availability of big-box facilities remains low in the I-4 Corridor as there are only five existing facilities fully available in the region. The lack of 500,000-plus-square-foot product, especially, combined with growing demand for this size range from e-commerce and 3PL tenants, has created a significant opportunity for speculative development. A total of 3.1 million square feet remained under construction at year-end. Development growth has moved outside the core Tampa market due to the diminishing supply of viable industrial land sites. Big-box construction completions totaled 3.2 million square feet in 2021, with just four facilities that delivered fully vacant during the year.
The big-box industrial sector continues to be active in Central Florida
Florida
I-4 Corridor
71
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
13
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
16
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“The Indianapolis big-box market is experiencing record growth and healthy market fundamentals. At year-end 2021, the MSA posted historic net absorption levels, low vacancy and robust construction deliveries. Another strong wave of new product is underway, rolling into 2022. Every major submarket is seeing unprecedented growth, including pockets that were viewed as a potential new frontier just a few years ago. Accelerated growth in these areas, which include Monrovia, Mount Comfort and Whiteland, contributed to more than half of all the new big-box product in 2021. Across the board, occupier demand for modern bulk space remains at an all-time high, and we anticipate the market to thrive in 2022.”
Andrea Hopper
Senior Vice President, Indianapolis
The Indianapolis bulk industrial sector remains red hot despite ongoing supply and labor shortages, inflationary concerns, and other factors triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The growing demand for e-commerce, third-party logistics providers and big-box industrial real estate is boosting industrial market fundamentals. The area achieved 14.7 million square feet of leasing activity – a new record for the market. Tenant activity experienced a sharp surge as the 10-year big-box leasing activity average is just 7.3 million square feet. The ready availability of new speculative facilities delivered to market is helping Indianapolis draw new-to-market operations, including 17 new lease
Outsized user demand outpacing supply in Indianapolis
Indiana
Indianapolis
132
Big-box buildings
8
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
66
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
42
Big-box buildings
2
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“Whether you’re selling ice cream or leasing buildings in the Inland Empire, I think we can all say it’s lived up to the buzzword that’s been overused throughout this year: unprecedented. Vacancy has dropped to 0.2% in the Inland Empire if you remove a 1.4-million-square-foot building to be demolished for redevelopment in Rancho Cucamonga. For buildings over 500,000 square feet, we’ve arrived at a 0% vacancy. Gross absorption has remained stable at an upper level of 48 million square feet, while net absorption hit a high of 29 million square feet. We’ve now achieved 51 straight quarters of positive occupancy gains. With vacancy at all-time lows and tenant demand doubling since 2019, rental rates are putting all brokers, landlords and tenants to task with placing a fair number on valuation as rates have been shifting up every few weeks. Rental rates on average have increased year-over-year by nearly 35% for buildings 200,000 square feet and above and it’s predicted that we will likely have a 2022 year-over-year increase even higher than that.”
Mark Zorn, SIOR
Senior Executive Vice President, Inland Empire
Leasing activity in the Inland Empire totaled 32.6 million square feet, net absorption more than doubled year-over-year, and construction completions totaled 10.3 million square feet. These totals are impressive given the lack of available big-box options in the Inland Empire. At the close of the year, only two spaces greater than 200,000 square feet were fully vacant. This lack of available space caused overall vacancy to plummet to a historic low of 0.4% - making the Inland Empire the only market in the U.S. with vacancy lower than 1.0%.
A banner year for the Inland Empire
California
Inland Empire
482
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
138
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
125
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“The Kansas City market continues to be a thriving industrial market with robust activity. Kansas City’s ideal location, established infrastructure and steady supply of speculative product continues to cater to the space and timing needs of third-party logistics and e-commerce growth throughout the market.”
Ed Elder
President, Kansas City
With nearly 58 million square feet of big-box real estate, Kansas City is one of the smallest markets showcased in this report. While the region is much smaller than the core markets, its logistical advantages provide a wealth of opportunity for both occupiers and developers. Kansas City’s geography provides a level of access to consumers that is difficult to match in North America. The region has access to nearly 15 million people within 250 miles of its core and major employers include food companies Seaboard Corporation, Farmland Foods and Hostess Brands. For logistics, manufacturing and supply chain companies, the Kansas City metro is a growing hub, with five of the seven major rail lines converging in America’s crossroads.
Demand for Kansas City industrial product remains on pace with supply
Missouri
Kansas City
84
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
31
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
13
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“Memphis finished 2021 with record-setting big-box absorption of 10.4 million square feet with 23 Class A new deals signed over 200,000 square feet. New construction increased in 2021 to 14.7 million square feet, with 11 developers concentrating on DeSoto County and Marshall County submarkets. 79% of completed construction was leased in 2021, leaving just three options over 800,000 square feet. This robust leasing activity coupled with continued demand from big-box users pushed new development to 10.1 million square feet under construction at the end of the year. 2022 will see continued new development activity across all submarkets, as well as a focus on infill projects in the Southeast submarket near the Memphis International Airport.”
Tim Mashburn
Senior Vice President & Principal, Memphis
Memphis is an international distribution hub with a transportation and logistics infrastructure that includes five Class I railroads, 490 truck terminals and the nation’s fifth-largest inland port. Due to these factors, occupiers and developers alike have expressed interest in the region. However, despite continued demand, Memphis remains the most economical big-box market in North America. The outlook for 2022 remains extremely positive for the Memphis market; however, vacancy rates may rise slightly as speculative developments are delivered. High interest by tenants looking for big-box Class A product with a minimum threshold of 800,000 square feet should spur further development. This healthy and consistent growth will allow the Memphis market to remain a desirable bulk market.
Memphis excels in a year of highs, lows and unknowns
Tennessee
Memphis
103
Big-box buildings
2
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
51
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
64
Big-box buildings
7
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“Northern California continued to see enormous demand from big-box industrial tenants throughout 2021. Sacramento, specifically, posted annual record highs for both net absorption and new supply in 2021 while also setting an all-time high asking rent and annual sales volume. Speculative developments are regularly 90% leased or more by the time of delivery and developers are active throughout the region to address skyrocketing demand. We project rents will increase another 20% in 2022 as demand shows no sign of slowing and availability is at an all-time low. Sacramento is seeing big-box development deliver at an unprecedented pace and new projects continue to break ground in early 2022.”
Mark Demetre, SIOR
Executive Vice President, Sacramento
Record-setting levels of demand continued unabated throughout 2021 and are anticipated to persist in 2022. The need for modern distribution space in core markets continues to drive up lease rates and sales prices in the inventory-constricted Northern California industrial market. The unprecedented e-commerce growth continues to transform the industry and drive demand for warehouse/distribution product. The relentless demand for big-box space driven by e-commerce has led to continued downward pressure on vacancy rates, measuring 7.3% in Northern California, down 140 basis points from a year ago. Thriving industries over the past two years include food and beverage delivery, home improvement, construction material supplies and self-wellness/fitness amongst others.
Record-setting levels of leasing activity in Northern California
California
Northern California
197
Big-box buildings
5
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
54
Big-box buildings
4
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
32
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“Although leasing activity slowed and renewals increased during the latter half of the year, positive net absorption persisted as pre-leased construction deliveries drove occupancy gains. During this time, there were four new buildings totaling 2.8 million square feet that were delivered fully occupied, and of the 3.8 million square feet that broke ground in the fourth quarter, 52% had already been pre-leased. With this ongoing demand for industrial product, it is no surprise that New Jersey’s vacancy rate improved 160 basis points year-over-year to 1%.”
Linda Hill
Senior Managing Director, Woodbridge
New Jersey's industrial market continued to benefit from a shift in consumer buying habits that caused pricing and demand to increase at a record-setting pace during 2021. Bulk leasing activity totaled an impressive 22.2 million square feet in 2021, an increase of 20% higher than 2020’s total of 17.1 million square feet. Amazon increased activity throughout the nation and occupied 10 bulk facilities in the New Jersey market totaling 4.8 million square feet, the largest of which was a 1.3-million-square-foot facility in Carneys Point. Overall, there were 54 transactions greater than 200,000 square feet in 2021, accounting for 23 million square feet of occupancy gains for the region.
Unprecedented occupier demand for industrial product in New Jersey persists
New Jersey
Northern-Central New Jersey
202
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
49
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
41
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“To sum up the activity level in Phoenix, we can use several superlatives, ‘white-hot,’ ‘on fire,’ and ‘best we have ever seen,’ to name a few. All sectors in the industrial world in Phoenix are running on all cylinders. User demand is up, new construction is at an all-time high and developer activity and new starts are setting records. Deer Valley, the Southeast Valley, Airport and Southwest Valley markets are all absorbing space at record levels. We are seeing a reset in industrial rental rates because of demand, lack of supply and a constrained land market. This is great news for a past ‘second-tier’ distribution market moving into new territory as a ‘top tier’ destination. Phoenix is now attracting headquarter relocations, regional logistics users and significant investment dollars from all major REITS and Wall Street capital.”
Don MacWilliam
Executive Vice President, Phoenix
Despite hitting near-record activity over the last year, growth in the Phoenix industrial market is showing no signs of slowing. Tenant activity is so strong that tenants are committing to space once walls are tilted on buildings under construction, and tenants are committing to space sight unseen. Product under construction has reached an all-time high, marking one of the lowest vacancy levels ever witnessed in the market. National developers have noticed the rapid rent growth of the market, increasing 8.2% year-over-year for big-box space and are quickly moving to get buildings constructed. Demand for bulk space is not expected to wane in the greater Phoenix area, which results in stronger attention from investors and occupiers. Rental rates will continue increasing at a healthy pace throughout the year. However, looking ahead at possible headwinds, big-box vacancy could increase during the coming year as the robust supply pipeline begins to deliver.
Big-box manufacturing is leading the way in Phoenix
Arizona
Phoenix
120
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
30
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
19
Big-box buildings
1
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“As occupiers work to resolve global supply chain issues, demand will likely continue at its record-setting pace. Demand continues to outpace supply despite the high level of new construction. This imbalance will exert upward pressure on rental rates for the foreseeable future. Large amounts of capital chasing fewer sale offerings have resulted in record-high building sale prices and low capitalization rates. Strong competition for infill land sites along the I-95 corridor has caused FAR prices to skyrocket.”
Mark V. Chubb
Senior Managing Director & Principal, Conshohocken
Strong momentum and increased activity caused net absorption totals to reach 44.5 million square feet in 2021 — nearly doubling the previous record of 24.2 million square feet set at the end of 2020 and the highest among the big-box markets covered in this report. E-commerce demand, fueled by the global pandemic, has greatly benefitted the Southern New Jersey-Eastern Pennsylvania big-box market as Amazon accounted for 15% of the total occupancy gains in the region. A total of 41.3 million square feet remained under development at the end of the year. E-commerce demand persists in this region and across the nation and occupiers are racing to modernize their omnichannel approach and a lack of large-format vacancies (greater than 750,000 square feet) is driving this development boom. A strong pipeline of requirements in the market indicates a continuation of strong fundamentals for the foreseeable future.
Record high occupier demand has driven vacancy to the lowest level in a decade
New Jersey / Pennsylvania
Southern New Jersey-Eastern PA
366
Big-box buildings
10
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
121
Big-box buildings
3
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
136
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
Historical data
“A continued period of tightening and improving fundamentals is being exhibited across the greater Toronto area market. Larger buildings continue to be in limited supply and are hotly sought-after when they do become available for lease via new construction or backfill. E-commerce fulfillment companies are expanding their footprints at a rapid pace, along with the third-party logistics, food service, industrial supply and technology/pharmaceutical sectors, all seeing strong activity levels. Rapidly rising land and entitlement charges are pushing rents to higher and previously unrealized levels. Vacancy levels have remained low through 2021 into 2022 and are poised to remain low well into 2023.”
David Colley, SIOR
Senior Vice President,
Toronto West
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) industrial market is an active big-box market in North America. Despite the pandemic-related challenges, the region remains resilient as it is home to a number of e-commerce fulfillment and distribution centers for companies such as Amazon, Wayfair and IKEA, drawn by the region’s vast transportation infrastructure. Robust demand for big-box product maintained the record-low vacancy rate of 0.3% at year-end, unchanged from 2020. The GTA maintains the tightest big-box market with exceedingly low vacancy and just two big-box facilities in the region that were fully vacant at the end of 2021.
Historic year for Greater Toronto Area industrial market
Ontario
Toronto
545
Big-box buildings
2
Fully vacant
200,000 - 499,999 SF
49
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
500,000 - 749,999 SF
55
Big-box buildings
0
Fully vacant
750,000+ SF
Building inventory
“Greater Cincinnati industrial made a statement in 2021. Net absorption surged to 10.6 million square feet, almost doubling the total absorption of 2019 and 2020 combined. No other year of industrial activity comes close in the market’s long history. Across new deliveries, construction and leasing, it is the bulk warehouse sector that has provided the spark for tremendous growth and led global logistics and distribution firms to the region. The demand for this large, modern logistics and warehouse space has been responsible for most of the market’s absorption and the increase in overall market rental rates. A record-breaking 2021 serves as a signal to industrial users and investors alike of long-term momentum in 2022 and beyond.”
James Ewing
