Egypt’s Future Dependence on Fossil Fuels: Five Policy Scenarios
Percent (%)
Renewable Target40: In this scenario, the country targets a minimum of 20% renewable energy based power generation by 2020 and 40% by 2050.
Reference scenario: This scenario demonstrates a continuance of existing energy economic dynamics without any policy changes.
Limited gas production: This scenario evaluates impacts of a reduction in Egypt’s natural gas production for power generation. This scenario considers a 2% growth of natural gas production for power generation until 2050 compared to the historic increase of 2.8%.
CO mitigation: This scenario evaluates technology choices that explicitly reduce CO emissions. We simulate a 5% CO emissions mitigation rate by 2020, 10% by 2030, and 25% by 2050.
Renewable Target30: In this scenario, the country targets a minimum of 20% renewable energy based power generation by 2020 and 30% by 2050. This policy option is based on Egypt’s Vision 2030 plan.
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Reference scenario
Limited gas production
CO mitigation
Renewable Target30
Renewable Target40
Fossil Fuel Dependency (%)
100 80 60 40
2016
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
*Percentage of Egypt’s total energy generated from fossil fuels, based on projected demand and scenarios employing different mixes of policy options to generate energy from different sources.
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