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Technology
Demographic Trends
China's Macro Shift
TREND #1
The Growing Chinese Middle Class
The Mirae Approach
A PARADIGM SHIFT
China's Growth Story is Changing
For the past 40 years, China’s economy has developed at an unprecedented rate. For most of
this time, the enlargement was mostly attributed to large-scale capital investment and
market liberalisation. But that is no longer the case. China’s growth story has changed – as have its investment opportunities.
Over these pages, we will explore how China’s US$13.4 trillion economy is evolving,
pinpointing the underlying factors driving the shift in the country’s economy. Also, we will demonstrate how our China Growth Equity Fund places investors in the best position to take advantage of this new landscape.
CHINA'S MACRO SHIFT
DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS
TECHNOLOGY
THE MIRAE APPROACH
As China’s economic drivers evolve, private consumption has unseated international trade and investment as the main force of growth. At the same time, China’s international relationship dynamics have also altered – the country is reducing its exposure to the world.
Private consumption accounted for at least 60% of GDP growth for 11 out of 16 quarters since 2015)
China's Macro Shift - Toward a Self-Sustaining Giant
01 Higher Incomes
Stronger purchasing power has led to higher spending in the search for a higher quality of life.
Average Household Income 1980: US$300
Average Household Income 2018: US$4,000
What is driving this realignment?
01
02
“
”
What is driving this realignment?
01
02
• Demand-side stimulus
• Credit expansion
• Strategic credit loosening
• Lower income tax
• Job creation programmes
02 Government Support
What’s interesting is that this consumption story is still in its early stages. When measured as a share of overall GDP, consumer activity in China still stands at a relatively low 40%. Compare this to 70% in the US and 55% in Japan. There is still room to grow.
From an investment perspective, the firms that serve the domestic market are the ones that will prosper. Furthermore, the clients of those skilled managers who are best able identify the strongest businesses will be the ones to reap the coming rewards.
China’s changing population profile is closely linked to rising household incomes and the broader macroeconomic shift. We have identified several critical demographic trends that are reshaping the nature of consumption in this Asian giant.
• The proportion of the Chinese middle class is still relatively small
• By 2027, it is expected expand to around 65% of households
• Over the same period, this could drive an average consumption growth of 6% per year
Re-positioning a US$13 Trillion Economy
TREND #3
TREND #2
TREND #4
Rising incomes don’t just lift consumers, but retail investors as well – a positive development for Chinese capital markets.
“
”
China’s economic repositioning also has important implications for future financing structures. As businesses become ‘asset-light’, comprising more human capital and intellectual property, a capital asset model reliant on bank financing is no longer the most efficient way forward. Companies will likely progressively look toward capital markets for financing.
The country’s retail investors, part of the very same consumer class, are enthusiastic market participants, accounting for nearly 80% of annual trading.
Technology
China’s advancement toward a global technological powerhouse and the evolving consumption story are irrevocably intertwined. Several factors play into this interlinking.
A key component of AI’s value potential in China comes from the country’s higher capital reinvestment rates.
“
”
Ashley Hsu
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Investment Analyst, Information Technology
Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited
Technological Innovator
In 2016, Chinese graduates in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) numbered 4.7 million – over eight times greater compared to the US.
Mirae Asset China Growth
Equity Fund
China’s huge population into three large segments by GDP per capita:
• GDP per capita at below USD 5,000 (450mn population),
• between USD 5,000-10,000 (560mn population) and
• above USD 10,000 (390mn population).
• By 2027 it is forecast that the Millennials, which refers
to those born in the 90s and 00s, is expected to comprise 15% of Chinese population, and the latter, even greater 21%.
• Also, 324 million people, equating to 22% of the population will be 60 or older.
• For investors, areas such as senior care, dietary supplements, medical treatments, as well as health insurance, will benefit
• As the proportion of Chinese seniors increases, so too will the number of younger people
• By 2027, 21% of the population will have been born in the 1990s and 2000s
• Classed as ‘differentiated’ consumers – those more likely to seek instant gratification and be less price-conscious.
Consumption Upgrade by Income Group
TREND #1
TREND #3
TREND #4
TREND #2
A Cohort Analysis of Consumption
TREND #1
TREND #3
TREND #4
TREND #2
‘Little Emperors’ becoming the
Key Spenders
TREND #1
TREND #3
TREND #4
TREND #2
Demographic Trends
Step 2
Quantitative Screening
Refine the opportunity set to a more defined investment group of approximately 2,000 stocks
This filtration is guided by our assessment of liquidity, financial, and business risk.
Step 3
Qualitative Screening
Analyse each stock at the fundamental level by understanding the company’s key growth drivers
Independent valuation models – we carry out numerous company and site visits supported by on-the-ground research teams
Step 1
Opportunity Set
A potential investment universe of over 5,500 stocks, including
A-shares H-shares
Chinese ADRS IPOs
The Power of Big Data
Winning the AI Race
A Consumption-Driven Digital Economy
THE POWER OF BIG DATA
Despite being still in its early stages, China’s consumer class boom is driving the so-called ‘big-data economy’. This isn’t a pure private-sector-led effort – the government is taking an active role in this transformation with a targeted big-data development programme
Winning the AI Race
AI is poised to be the ‘jet fuel’ for economic growth – increasing the productivity factor. Analysts believe that AI could trigger a surge in global output of USS13 trillion or more between 2019 to 2013.
Also, China may ultimately overtake the US as the global leader in ASI. This move will be helped by the government’s New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan.
Link to example
Another Link
A CONSUMPTION-DRIVEN DIGITAL ECONOMY
In 2005, China accounted for 1% of global e-commerce transactions. By 2016, that figure was 42%. China also has the highest rate of fintech adoption in the world – 69% compared to the global average of 33%.
Link to example
Another Link
Capture Opportunities in the New Chinese Economy
TREND #1
A Cohort Analysis of Consumption
The Growing Chinese Middle Class
TREND #2
Consumption Upgrade by Income Group
TREND #4
Little Emperors’ becoming the
Key Spenders
• Classed as ‘differentiated’ consumers – those more likely to seek instant gratification and be less price-conscious.
• By 2027, 21% of the population will have been born in the 1990s and 2000s
• As the proportion of Chinese seniors increases, so too will the number of younger people
• As the proportion of Chinese seniors increases, so too will the number of younger people
• By 2027, 21% of the population will have been born in the 1990s and 2000s
• Classed as ‘differentiated’ consumers – those more likely to seek instant gratification and be less price-conscious.
TREND #3
China's Growth Story is Changing
At Mirae Asset, we believe that fundamental analysis is key to navigating the Chinese market and are strong advocates of achieving excess returns from bottom-up stock selection strategies.
The strength of our approach is the quality and quantity of research we conduct on each stock that goes into our final portfolio. Our experienced on-the-ground teams go out to see first-hand the economic, demographic, and technological changes going through the Chinese economy, obtaining data that they then incorporate into our detailed analyses.
For the past 40 years, China’s economy has developed at an unprecedented rate. For most of this time, the enlargement was mostly attributed to large-scale capital investment and market liberalisation. But that is no longer the case. China’s growth story has changed – as have its investment opportunities.
Over these pages, we will explore how China’s US$13.4 trillion economy is evolving, pinpointing the underlying factors driving the shift in the country’s economy. Also, we will demonstrate how our China Growth Equity Fund places investors in the best position to take advantage of this new landscape.
Menu
TREND #1
TREND #2
TREND #3
TREND #4
Download Full Report
1 Congressional Research Service, as of June 25, 2019. 2 CEIC, data range 1098-2013, as of Aug 31, 2019. 3 National Bureau of Statistics of China, as of Jan 24, 2019. 4 McKinsey & Company, as of Jul 31, 2019.
5 Mckinsey & Company, data as of Sep 30, 19. 6 World Economic Forum, as of Apr 10, 2018 . 7 Congressional Research Service, as of June 25, 2019. 8 BBC, as of Mar 16, 2016, data accessed on Sep 10, 19.
This material is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy a security to any person in any jurisdiction where such solicitation, offer, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the laws of that
jurisdiction. Investment involves risk.
The information in this material is based on sources we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee the accuracy of completeness of the information provided. This material has not been
reviewed by SFC and shall only be circulated in countries where it is permitted.
This material is intended solely for your private use and shall not be reproduced or recirculated either in whole or in part, without the written permission of Mirae Asset Global Investments.
This document has been prepared for presentation, illustration and discussion purposes only and is not legally binding. Whilst compiled from sources Mirae Asset Global Investments believes to
be accurate, no representation, warranty, assurance or implication to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy from defect of any kind is made. The division, group, subsidiary or affiliate of Mirae
Asset Global Investments which produced this document shall not be liable to the recipient or controlling shareholders of the recipient resulting from its use. The views and information discussed
or referred in this report are as of the date of publication, are subject to change and may not reflect the current views of the writer(s). The views expressed represent an assessment of market
conditions at a specific point in time, are to be treated as opinions only and should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding a particular investment or markets in general. In addition,
the opinions expressed are those of the writer(s) and may differ from those of other Mirae Asset Global Investments’ investment professionals.
The provision of this document shall not be deemed as constituting any offer, acceptance, or promise of any further contract or amendment to any contract which may exist between the parties.
It should not be distributed to any other party except with the written consent of Mirae Asset Global Investments. Nothing herein contained shall be construed as granting the recipient whether
directly or indirectly or by implication, any license or right, under any copy right or intellectual property rights to use the information herein. This document may include reference data from thirdparty
sources and Mirae Asset Global Investments has not conducted any audit, validation, or verification of such data. Mirae Asset Global Investments accepts no liability for any loss or damage
of any kind resulting out of the unauthorized use of this document. Investment involves risk. Past performance figures are not indicative of future performance. Forward-looking statements are
not guarantees of performance. The information presented is not intended to provide specific investment advice. Please carefully read through the offering documents and seek independent
professional advice before you make any investment decision. Products, services, and information may not be available in your jurisdiction and may be offered by affiliates, subsidiaries, and/or
distributors of Mirae Asset Global Investments as stipulated by local laws and regulations. Please consult with your professional adviser for further information on the availability of products and
services within your jurisdiction.
Hong Kong: This material is prepared by Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited (Mirae HK). Mirae HK is regulated by the SFC (CE reference: ALK083).
United Kingdom: This document does not explain all the risks involved in investing in the Fund and therefore you should ensure that you read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information
Documents (“KIID”) which contain further information including the applicable risk warnings. The taxation position affecting UK investors is outlined in the Prospectus. The Prospectus and KIID
for the Fund are available free of charge from http://investments. miraeasset.eu, or from Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd., 4th Floor, 4-6 Royal Exchange Buildings, London EC3V 3NL,
United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7715 9900.
This document has been approved for issue in the United Kingdom by Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd, a company incorporated in England & Wales with registered number 06044802,
and having its registered office at 4th Floor, 4-6 Royal Exchange Buildings, London EC3V 3NL, United Kingdom. Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority with firm reference number 467535.
TREND #3
1
2
3
4
4
5
6
8
7
7
1
01 Higher Incomes
Stronger purchasing power has led to higher spending in the search for a higher quality of life.
Average Household Income 1980: US$300
Average Household Income 2018: US$4,000
What is driving this realignment?
01
02
2
4
4
5
China’s economic repositioning also has important implications for future financing structures.
As businesses become ‘asset-light’, comprising more of human capital and intellectual property, a capital asset model reliant on bank financing is no longer the most efficient way forward Companies will likely progressively look toward capital markets for financing.
The country’s retail investors, part of the very same consumer class, are enthusiastic market participants, accounting for nearly 80% of annual trading.
8
1 Congressional Research Service, as of June 25, 2019. 2 CEIC, data range 1098-2013, as of Aug 31, 2019. 3 National Bureau of Statistics of China, as of Jan 24, 2019. 4 McKinsey & Company, as of Jul 31, 2019.
5 Mckinsey & Company, data as of Sep 30, 19. 6 World Economic Forum, as of Apr 10, 2018 . 7 Congressional Research Service, as of June 25, 2019. 8 BBC, as of Mar 16, 2016, data accessed on Sep 10, 19.
This material is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy a security to any person in any jurisdiction where such solicitation, offer, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the laws of that jurisdiction. Investment involves risk.
The information in this material is based on sources we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee the accuracy of completeness of the information provided. This material has not been reviewed by SFC and shall only be circulated in countries where it is permitted.
This material is intended solely for your private use and shall not be reproduced or recirculated either in whole or in part, without the written permission of Mirae Asset Global Investments.
This document has been prepared for presentation, illustration and discussion purposes only and is not legally binding. Whilst compiled from sources Mirae Asset Global Investments believes to be accurate, no representation, warranty, assurance or implication to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy from defect of any kind is made. The division, group, subsidiary or affiliate of Mirae Asset Global Investments which produced this document shall not be liable to the recipient or controlling shareholders of the recipient resulting from its use. The views and information discussed or referred in this report are as of the date of publication, are subject to change and may not reflect the current views of the writer(s). The views expressed represent an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time, are to be treated as opinions only and should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding a particular investment or markets in general. In addition, the opinions expressed are those of the writer(s) and may differ from those of other Mirae Asset Global Investments’ investment professionals.
The provision of this document shall not be deemed as constituting any offer, acceptance, or promise of any further contract or amendment to any contract which may exist between the parties.
It should not be distributed to any other party except with the written consent of Mirae Asset Global Investments. Nothing herein contained shall be construed as granting the recipient whether directly or indirectly or by implication, any license or right, under any copy right or intellectual property rights to use the information herein. This document may include reference data from thirdparty sources and Mirae Asset Global Investments has not conducted any audit, validation, or verification of such data. Mirae Asset Global Investments accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any kind resulting out of the unauthorized use of this document. Investment involves risk. Past performance figures are not indicative of future performance. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. The information presented is not intended to provide specific investment advice. Please carefully read through the offering documents and seek independent professional advice before you make any investment decision. Products, services, and information may not be available in your jurisdiction and may be offered by affiliates, subsidiaries, and/or distributors of Mirae Asset Global Investments as stipulated by local laws and regulations. Please consult with your professional adviser for further information on the availability of products and services within your jurisdiction.
Hong Kong: This material is prepared by Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited (Mirae HK). Mirae HK is regulated by the SFC (CE reference: ALK083).
United Kingdom: This document does not explain all the risks involved in investing in the Fund and therefore you should ensure that you read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Documents (“KIID”) which contain further information including the applicable risk warnings. The taxation position affecting UK investors is outlined in the Prospectus. The Prospectus and KIID
for the Fund are available free of charge from http://investments. miraeasset.eu, or from Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd., 4th Floor, 4-6 Royal Exchange Buildings, London EC3V 3NL, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7715 9900.
This document has been approved for issue in the United Kingdom by Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd, a company incorporated in England & Wales with registered number 06044802, and having its registered office at 4th Floor, 4-6 Royal Exchange Buildings, London EC3V 3NL, United Kingdom. Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 467535.
At Mirae Asset, we believe that fundamental analysis is key to navigating the Chinese market and are strong advocates of achieving excess returns from bottom-up stock selection strategies.
The strength of our approach is the quality and quantity of research we conduct on each stock that goes into our final portfolio. Our experienced on-the-ground teams go out to see first-hand the economic, demographic, and technological changes going through the Chinese economy, obtaining data that they then incorporate into our detailed analyses.
At Mirae Asset, we believe that fundamental analysis is key to navigating the Chinese market and are strong advocates of achieving excess returns from bottom-up stock selection strategies.
The strength of our approach is the quality and quantity of research we conduct on each stock that goes into our final portfolio. Our experienced on-the-ground teams go out to see first-hand the economic, demographic, and technological changes going through the Chinese economy, obtaining data that they then incorporate into our detailed analyses.
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