Timing and shape of the global economic rebound
Regional themes with potential global spillovers
Q4 2023
End 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
US:
Fed pivot
Europe:
Energy
crisis
China:
Growth
path
A Fed pivot by end-Q1 with terminal rate at 5.25% amid tightening financial conditions and weakening job market
Inflation falls back quickly and China’s growth rebounds
Excrecessionessive Fed tightening or a in China could lead to a deep recession
Worsening energy crisis could lead to a deep recession
15% probability
upside scenario
70% probability
central scenario
15% probability
downside scenario
