Surprise
Expected
Weak economic outlook, with energy crisis and recession in Europe.
Inflation on a downward trend, but sticky core inflation.
Tightening central banks, but a slower pace than in 2022. Fed pause in Q1-Q2.
Geopolitical pressure and intensifying US-China confrontation.
Confirmation that bonds are back, in particular govies and quality credit.
Weak risky assets outlook, entry points in Q1-Q2.
US equity favoured against other markets.
Comeback of 60/40 portfolios.
Downward dollar trend.
Source: Amundi Institute as of 30 May 2023. DM: developed markets. EM: emerging markets. CB: central banks
US regional banks turmoil and spill-over on some European banks.
Easing energy crisis in Europe, recession averted.
China’s earlier-than-expected reopening, with uneven recovery amid property sector woes.
Strong performance of equity markets, supported by earnings resilience.
Overperformance of European, Japanese equities, and US tech.
Downside in commodities, except for gold.
Resilience of EM assets, but Chinese equity underperforming.
Economy and politics
Financial
markets
H1 2023: mid-year in review
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