Convictions
Cross Asset
Bright spots
Broaden the opportunity set in equities and look at sector
While excessive valuations persist in US mega caps, we see bright spots appearing in Europe, the US market beyond the mega caps and Japan
Uncover income opportunities across the board
With yields close to historic highs, central bank easing and no recession in sight, government bonds, credit, leveraged loans and EM bonds present attractive income opportunities.
Play dynamic asset allocation in a world of anomalies
An anomalous cycle calls for a frequent reassessment of the economic backdrop and dynamic allocation adjustments, with a focus on risk assets in H1 (equity and investment grade credit).
Diversify across different axes
Exploit volatility diversifiers (hedge funds and absolute return strategies), liquidity diversifiers (private markets) and macro/geopolitical diversifiers (gold).
Explore transformative long-term themes
Balancing growth perspectives and valuations in artificial intelligence, clean energy, manufacturing re-insourcing, infrastructure, health care and an ageing population.
Embrace the power of Asia and EM's comeback
India and Indonesia are long-term winners. In the short term, China may benefit from additional stimulus. EMs are expected to outperform DMs.
Bright spots...
Broaden the opportunity set in equities and look at sectors
While excessive valuations persist in US mega caps, we see bright spots appearing in Europe, the US market beyond the mega caps and Japan
Uncover income opportunities across the board
With yields close to historic highs, central bank easing and no recession in sight, government bonds, credit, leveraged loans and EM bonds present attractive income opportunities.
Play dynamic asset allocation in a world of anomalies
An anomalous cycle calls for a frequent reassessment of the economic backdrop and dynamic allocation adjustments, with a focus on risk assets in H1 (equity and investment grade credit).
Diversify across different axes
Exploit volatility diversifiers (hedge funds and absolute return strategies), liquidity diversifiers (private markets) and macro/geopolitical diversifiers (gold).
Explore transformative long-term themes
Balancing growth perspectives and valuations in artificial intelligence, clean energy, manufacturing re-insourcing, infrastructure, health care and an ageing population.
Embrace the power of Asia and EM's comeback
India and Indonesia are long-term winners. In the short term, China may benefit from additional stimulus. EMs are expected to outperform DMs.
High costs of US debt
trillion will be spent on interest payments in 2024, highest on record1
Strong household finances
net wealth as a share of US disposable income, highest in the past two years 2
Healthy liquidity
in a resilient economic backdrop contrasts with high perceived macro uncertainty
High equity concentration
weight of top 7 stocks in the S&P5003
Stretched valuations
of the time the S&P500 has been more expensive than now since 18814
Diverging volatility trends
in 2024 vs previous 10-year average
>$ 1.1
7.9x
Healthy liquidity
30%
<3%
-21% in equity volatility
+34% in bond volatility5
...IN A WORLD OF ANOMALIES
Macro anomalies
Macro anomalies
Macro anomalies
Macro anomalies
Market anomalies
Macro anomalies
Macro anomalies
Macro anomalies
Market anomalies
Market anomalies
Market anomalies