Marketing material for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry
A transition with higher risks
This year, our central scenario combines orderly (Net Zero 2050 and Below 2°C) and disorderly (Delayed transition) pathways to account for a world characterised by geopolitical fragmentation and lower commitments for some countries.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2024
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart above to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Read full comment
Last year, to model increasing geopolitical fragmentation stemming from the Ukraine war, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil.
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2023
Hot house world
Too little too late
Disorderly
Orderly
Climate policy
Consumer preferences
Technology
Extreme weather events
Gradual changes in climate
Transition risk
HIGH
LOW
Physical risk
LOW
HIGH
Divergent
Net Zero
(0.5°C)
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
Low demand
Fragmented World
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
2024
2023
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
Below 2 °C gradually increases the strictness of climate policies, giving a 67 % chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. This scenario assumes that climate policies are introduced immediately and become gradually more stringent though not as high as in Net Zero 2050.*
BELOW 2°C
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Immediate
and smooth
Technology change
Moderate change
Regional policy variation
Low variation
Ongoing delays have reduced the prospects of an orderly transition, increased transition risks in order to reach a 1.5-2°C target, and resulted in overall higher physical risks in our central scenario. This sees the continuation of current geopolitical fragmentation and the willingness of some countries to smoothen their commitment to Net Zero over a longer time horizon. Together with Below 2°C and Net Zero 2050 it constitutes our central scenario.
DELAYED TRANSITION
Delayed Transition assumes global annual emissions do not decrease until 2030. Strong policies are then needed to limit warming to below 2 °C. Negative emissions are limited.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Delayed
Technology change
Slow/fast change
Regional policy variation
Medium variation
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C global temperature rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
NET ZERO 2050 1.5°C
Net Zero 2050 is an ambitious scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 °C through stringent climate policies and innovation, reaching net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050. Some jurisdictions such as the US, EU and Japan reach net zero for all greenhouse gases by this point.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.4°C
Policy reaction
Immediate
and smooth
Technology change
Fast
change
Regional policy variation
Medium
variation
Last year, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil. This year, this path has to some extent been subsumed by orderly scenarios reflecting 1.5-2°C global temperature rises, which have consequently become more disorderly
The Divergent Net Zero (1.5 °C) scenario, previously included in Phase III, has been phased out in this new fourth vintage given the reduced likelihood of a successful uncoordinated transition (this is marked with a cross in the framework).
DIVERGENT NET ZERO (0.5°C)
According to NGFS
NGFS SCENARIO FRAMEWORK
*NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) Scenario framework. All information is retrievable on the NGFS website https://www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenarios-portal/explore
Marketing material for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry
A transition with higher risks
This year, our central scenario combines orderly (Net Zero 2050 and Below 2°C) and disorderly (Delayed transition) pathways to account for a world characterised by geopolitical fragmentation and lower commitments for some countries.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2024
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart above to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Read full comment
Last year, to model increasing geopolitical fragmentation stemming from the Ukraine war, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil.
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2023
Hot house world
Too little too late
Disorderly
Orderly
Climate policy
Consumer preferences
Technology
Extreme weather events
Gradual changes in climate
Transition risk
HIGH
LOW
Physical risk
LOW
HIGH
Divergent
Net Zero
(0.5°C)
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
Low demand
Fragmented World
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
2024
2023
A new more adverse scenario of a "Fragmented world" has been added in 2024 but we don't think it will materialise.
The Fragmented World scenario assumes delayed and divergent climate policy ambition globally, leading to elevated transition risks in some countries and high physical risks everywhere due to the overall ineffectiveness of the transition.*
FRAGMENTED WORLD
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
2.3°C
Policy reaction
Delayed and fragmented
Technology change
First slow, then fragmented
Regional policy variation
High variation
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
BELOW 2°C
Below 2 °C gradually increases the strictness of climate policies, giving a 67 % chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. This scenario assumes that climate policies are introduced immediately and become gradually more stringent though not as high as in Net Zero 2050.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Immediate and smooth
Technology change
Moderate
change
Regional policy variation
Low
variation
Ongoing delays have reduced the prospects of an orderly transition, increased transition risks in order to reach a 1.5-2°C target, and resulted in overall higher physical risks in our central scenario. This sees the continuation of current geopolitical fragmentation and the willingness of some countries to smoothen their commitment to Net Zero over a longer time horizon. Together with Below 2°C and Net Zero 2050 it constitutes our central scenario.
DELAYED TRANSITION
Delayed Transition assumes global annual emissions do not decrease until 2030. Strong policies are then needed to limit warming to below 2 °C. Negative emissions are limited.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Delayed
Technology change
Slow/ Fast
change
Regional policy variation
Medium
variation
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C global temperature rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
NET ZERO 2050 1.5°C
Net Zero 2050 is an ambitious scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 °C through stringent climate policies and innovation, reaching net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050. Some jurisdictions such as the US, EU and Japan reach net zero for all greenhouse gases by this point.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.4°C
Policy reaction
Immediate
and smooth
Technology change
Fast
change
Regional policy variation
Medium
variation
Last year, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil. This year, this path has to some extent been subsumed by orderly scenarios reflecting 1.5-2°C global temperature rises, which have consequently become more disorderly
The Divergent Net Zero (1.5 °C) scenario, previously included in Phase III, has been phased out in this new fourth vintage given the reduced likelihood of a successful uncoordinated transition (this is marked with a cross in the framework).
DIVERGENT NET ZERO (0.5°C)
According to NGFS
NGFS SCENARIO FRAMEWORK
*NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) Scenario framework. All information is retrievable on the NGFS website https://www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenarios-portal/explore
Marketing material for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry
A transition with higher risks
This year, our central scenario combines orderly (Net Zero 2050 and Below 2°C) and disorderly (Delayed transition) pathways to account for a world characterised by geopolitical fragmentation and lower commitments for some countries.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2024
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart above to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Read full comment
Last year, to model increasing geopolitical fragmentation stemming from the Ukraine war, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil.
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2023
Hot house world
Too little too late
Disorderly
Orderly
Climate policy
Consumer preferences
Technology
Extreme weather events
Gradual changes in climate
Transition risk
HIGH
LOW
Physical risk
LOW
HIGH
Divergent
Net Zero
(0.5°C)
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
Low demand
Fragmented World
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
2024
2023
A new more adverse scenario of a "Fragmented world" has been added in 2024 but we don't think it will materialise.
The Fragmented World scenario assumes delayed and divergent climate policy ambition globally, leading to elevated transition risks in some countries and high physical risks everywhere due to the overall ineffectiveness of the transition.*
FRAGMENTED WORLD
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
2.3°C
Policy reaction
Delayed and fragmented
Technology change
First slow, then fragmented
Regional policy variation
High variation
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
BELOW 2°C
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Immediate
and smooth
Technology change
Moderate change
Regional policy variation
Low variation
Ongoing delays have reduced the prospects of an orderly transition, increased transition risks in order to reach a 1.5-2°C target, and resulted in overall higher physical risks in our central scenario. This sees the continuation of current geopolitical fragmentation and the willingness of some countries to smoothen their commitment to Net Zero over a longer time horizon. Together with Below 2°C and Net Zero 2050 it constitutes our central scenario.
DELAYED TRANSITION
Delayed Transition assumes global annual emissions do not decrease until 2030. Strong policies are then needed to limit warming to below 2 °C. Negative emissions are limited.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Delayed
Technology change
Slow/fast change
Regional policy variation
Medium variation
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C global temperature rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
NET ZERO 2050 1.5°C
Net Zero 2050 is an ambitious scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 °C through stringent climate policies and innovation, reaching net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050. Some jurisdictions such as the US, EU and Japan reach net zero for all greenhouse gases by this point.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.4°C
Policy reaction
Immediate
and smooth
Technology change
Fast
change
Regional policy variation
Medium
variation
Last year, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil. This year, this path has to some extent been subsumed by orderly scenarios reflecting 1.5-2°C global temperature rises, which have consequently become more disorderly
The Divergent Net Zero (1.5 °C) scenario, previously included in Phase III, has been phased out in this new fourth vintage given the reduced likelihood of a successful uncoordinated transition (this is marked with a cross in the framework).
DIVERGENT NET ZERO (0.5°C)
According to NGFS
NGFS SCENARIO FRAMEWORK
*NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) Scenario framework. All information is retrievable on the NGFS website https://www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenarios-portal/explore
Ongoing delays have reduced the prospects of an orderly transition, increased transition risks in order to reach a 1.5-2°C target, and resulted in overall higher physical risks in our central scenario. This sees the continuation of current geopolitical fragmentation and the willingness of some countries to smoothen their commitment to Net Zero over a longer time horizon. Together with Below 2°C and Net Zero 2050 it constitutes our central scenario.
DELAYED TRANSITION
Delayed Transition assumes global annual emissions do not decrease until 2030. Strong policies are then needed to limit warming to below 2 °C. Negative emissions are limited.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Delayed
Technology change
Slow/ Fast
change
Regional policy variation
Medium
variation
BELOW 2°C
Below 2 °C gradually increases the strictness of climate policies, giving a 67 % chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. This scenario assumes that climate policies are introduced immediately and become gradually more stringent though not as high as in Net Zero 2050.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Immediate and smooth
Technology change
Moderate
change
Regional policy variation
Low
variation
Marketing material for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry
A transition with higher risks
This year, our central scenario combines orderly (Net Zero 2050 and Below 2°C) and disorderly (Delayed transition) pathways to account for a world characterised by geopolitical fragmentation and lower commitments for some countries.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2024
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart above to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Read full comment
Last year, to model increasing geopolitical fragmentation stemming from the Ukraine war, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil.
Click on the pulsing circles in the chart to find out more about Amundi's choices on scenarios.
Amundi Investment Institute central scenario* in 2023
Hot house world
Too little too late
Disorderly
Orderly
Climate policy
Consumer preferences
Technology
Extreme weather events
Gradual changes in climate
Transition risk
HIGH
LOW
Physical risk
LOW
HIGH
Divergent
Net Zero
(0.5°C)
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
Low demand
Fragmented World
Net Zero
2050
(1.5%)
Below
2°C
Delayed transition
NDCs
Current policies
2024
2023
A new more adverse scenario of a "Fragmented world" has been added in 2024 but we don't think it will materialise.
The Fragmented World scenario assumes delayed and divergent climate policy ambition globally, leading to elevated transition risks in some countries and high physical risks everywhere due to the overall ineffectiveness of the transition.*
FRAGMENTED WORLD
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
2.3°C
Policy reaction
Delayed and fragmented
Technology change
First slow, then fragmented
Regional policy variation
High variation
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
Below 2 °C gradually increases the strictness of climate policies, giving a 67 % chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. This scenario assumes that climate policies are introduced immediately and become gradually more stringent though not as high as in Net Zero 2050.*
BELOW 2°C
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Immediate
and smooth
Technology change
Moderate change
Regional policy variation
Low variation
Ongoing delays have reduced the prospects of an orderly transition, increased transition risks in order to reach a 1.5-2°C target, and resulted in overall higher physical risks in our central scenario. This sees the continuation of current geopolitical fragmentation and the willingness of some countries to smoothen their commitment to Net Zero over a longer time horizon. Together with Below 2°C and Net Zero 2050 it constitutes our central scenario.
DELAYED TRANSITION
Delayed Transition assumes global annual emissions do not decrease until 2030. Strong policies are then needed to limit warming to below 2 °C. Negative emissions are limited.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.6°C
Policy reaction
Delayed
Technology change
Slow/fast change
Regional policy variation
Medium variation
The orderly scenarios aligned to 1.5°C and 2°C global temperature rises are now assuming increased disorderliness. We acknowledge a more disorderly transition by combining these two with the Delayed transition scenario.
NET ZERO 2050 1.5°C
Net Zero 2050 is an ambitious scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 °C through stringent climate policies and innovation, reaching net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050. Some jurisdictions such as the US, EU and Japan reach net zero for all greenhouse gases by this point.*
According to NGFS
Policy ambition
1.4°C
Policy reaction
Immediate
and smooth
Technology change
Fast
change
Regional policy variation
Medium
variation
Last year, our central scenario relied on the disorderly ‘Divergent Net Zero’ path characterised by higher short-term costs due to divergent policies resulting in abrupt adjustments to phase out the use of oil. This year, this path has to some extent been subsumed by orderly scenarios reflecting 1.5-2°C global temperature rises, which have consequently become more disorderly
The Divergent Net Zero (1.5 °C) scenario, previously included in Phase III, has been phased out in this new fourth vintage given the reduced likelihood of a successful uncoordinated transition (this is marked with a cross in the framework).
DIVERGENT NET ZERO (0.5°C)
According to NGFS
NGFS SCENARIO FRAMEWORK
*NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System) Scenario framework. All information is retrievable on the NGFS website https://www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenarios-portal/explore