INVESTMENT OUTLOOK | 2023
Some light for investors after the storm
China's Reopening
Stagflation
Energy Crisis
4 ESG Themes for 2023
Global growth should land at around 2.2% in 2023, down from 3.4% in 2022.
Hover on the shaded area for more information.
Inflation will slow from the current levels but will likely remain above Central Bank targets of 2%.
Inflation
Average GDP Growth
More accomodative
Less accomodative
Stable/ acccomodative
Tighter
Current rate: 4.00%
Expected rate +12m: 5.25%
CB stance: tight
Fed
Current rate: 3.00%
Expected rate +12m: 4.50%
CB stance: tight
BoE
Current deposit rate: 1.5%
Expected rate +12m: 2.5%
CB stance: tight
ECB
Current rate: 13.75%
Expected rate +12m: 10.00%
CB stance: tight
BCB
Current rate: 5.90%
Expected rate +12m: 6.15%
CB stance: less accommodative
RBI
Current rate: 3.65%
Expected rate +12m: 3.65%
CB stance: stable/accommodative
PBoC
Current rate: -0.10%
Expected rate +12m: -0.10%
CB stance: stable/accommodative
BoJ
Current rate: 7.50%
Expected rate +12m: 6.50%
CB stance: more accommodative
CBR
Projected Policy Stance Trend in the next 12 months
Fiscal spending in selected Eurozone countries
The energy crisis will be the main economic driver in Europe. Gaining strategic energy independence and signing new commercial ties will be key in a transformative year.
Russia-Ukraine war: possible scenarios
Energy Crisis
China's Reopening
Stagflation
China’s economy could unveil positive surprises in 2023, depending on the outcome of the two main challenges: housing market and Covid-19 policy. On the former, we see a rebound thanks to looser policy, on the latter a gradual relaxation of restrictions.
Signs of stabilisation are emerging in the housing market. In 2023, we expect housing sales to register a small gain and become less of a drag on GDP growth.
Source: Amundi Institute. Data and forecasts are as of 3 November 2022.
Source: Amundi Institute as of 15 November 2022. Illustrative map for monetary policies. CB: central banks. DM: developed markets. EM: emerging markets. Central bank stance refers to expected changes in CB balance sheets, policy rates, or real rates in 2022. Fed: Federal Reserve, ECB: European Central Bank, BoE: Bank of England, BoJ: Bank of Japan, PBoC: People’s Bank of China, BCB: Central Bank of Brazil, CBR: Central bank of Russia, RBI: Reserve Bank of India. For the Federal Reserve, current rate refers to the upper bound of the target range. For the ECB, current rate refers to the deposit facility.
Source: Amundi Institute. Data as of 31 October 2022.
Source: Amundi Institute. Data as of 7 November 2022. *e.g. after a tactical nuclear attack by Russia in Ukraine.
Investing in 2023
The Possible Solutions
End 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
3 Themes to Watch for in 2023
Cyclical view and its ESG impact
Social themes may be back in focus, as the deteriorating labour market and ongoing high inflation will call for more attention towards social well-being.
A decelerating economy with high inflation tends to favour ESG with a best-in-class approach, to avoid the exclusion of sectors that could benefit from inflation.
Deep dive into key E, S and G subthemes
Search for improvement in E, S and G; look for key material factors on the E, S, and G pillars within each sector, where improvements could lead to value repricing.
Net zero impact
Commitment towards net zero will be crucial in 2023, as investors will need to accelerate this effort.
Top-down view from macro / geopolitical / regulation
Food security across asset classes
Infrastructure in focus to support the energy transition and the geopolitical re-shoring trend
Energy transition (reinforced after the crisis), with opportunities in both equities and green bonds
From a top-down standpoint, key themes are:
Vincent MORTIER
Group Chief Investment Officer
Matteo GERMANO
Deputy Group Chief Investment Officer
“2023 will be a two-speed year, with plenty of risks to watch out for. Bonds are back, market valuations are getting more attractive, and a Fed pivot in the first part of the year could trigger interesting entry points.”
Residential Housing Floor Space Sold, Monthly, mn sqm
Sales set to return to their long-term equilibrium in 2023 ~1.3tn sqm per annum (2017-19 avg 1.5tn)
Source: Amundi Institute, CEIC. Data as of 31 October 2022. sqm: square meters.
China GDP Growth
Source: Amundi Institute, NBS, CEIC. Data and forecasts as of 25 October 2022. sa: seasonally adjusted. PBoC: People’s Bank of China.
China’s cyclical recovery will depend on the continuation of its zero-Covid policy.
Net zero impact
Commitment towards net zero will be crucial in 2023, as investors will need to accelerate this effort.
Deep dive into key E, S and G subthemes
Search for improvement in E, S and G; look for key material factors on the E, S, and G pillars within each sector, where improvements could lead to value repricing.
Cyclical view and its ESG impact
Social themes may be back in focus, as the deteriorating labour market and ongoing high inflation will call for more attention towards social well-being.
A decelerating economy with high inflation tends to favour ESG with a best-in-class approach, to avoid the exclusion of sectors that could benefit from inflation.
Top-down view from macro / geopolitical / regulation
Food security across asset classes
Infrastructure in focus to support the energy transition and the geopolitical re-shoring trend
Energy transition (reinforced after the crisis), with opportunities in both equities and green bonds
From a top-down standpoint, key themes are:
4 ESG Themes for 2023
End 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Investing in 2023
The Possible Solutions
Net zero impact
Commitment towards net zero will be crucial in 2023, as investors will need to accelerate this effort.
Deep dive into key E, S and G subthemes
Search for improvement in E, S and G; look for key material factors on the E, S, and G pillars within each sector, where improvements could lead to value repricing.
Cyclical view and its ESG impact
Social themes may be back in focus, as the deteriorating labour market and ongoing high inflation will call for more attention towards social well-being.
A decelerating economy with high inflation tends to favour ESG with a best-in-class approach, to avoid the exclusion of sectors that could benefit from inflation.
Top-down view from macro / geopolitical / regulation
Food security across asset classes
Infrastructure in focus to support the energy transition and the geopolitical re-shoring trend
Energy transition (reinforced after the crisis), with opportunities in both equities and green bonds
From a top-down standpoint, key themes are:
4 ESG Themes for 2023
End 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Investing in 2023
The Possible Solutions
Net zero impact
Commitment towards net zero will be crucial in 2023, as investors will need to accelerate this effort.
Deep dive into key E, S and G subthemes
Search for improvement in E, S and G; look for key material factors on the E, S, and G pillars within each sector, where improvements could lead to value repricing.
Cyclical view and its ESG impact
Social themes may be back in focus, as the deteriorating labour market and ongoing high inflation will call for more attention towards social well-being.
A decelerating economy with high inflation tends to favour ESG with a best-in-class approach, to avoid the exclusion of sectors that could benefit from inflation.
Top-down view from macro / geopolitical / regulation
Food security across asset classes
Infrastructure in focus to support the energy transition and the geopolitical re-shoring trend
Energy transition (reinforced after the crisis), with opportunities in both equities and green bonds
From a top-down standpoint, key themes are:
4 ESG Themes for 2023
End 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Investing in 2023
The Possible Solutions
Net zero impact
Commitment towards net zero will be crucial in 2023, as investors will need to accelerate this effort.
Deep dive into key E, S and G subthemes
Search for improvement in E, S and G; look for key material factors on the E, S, and G pillars within each sector, where improvements could lead to value repricing.
Cyclical view and its ESG impact
Social themes may be back in focus, as the deteriorating labour market and ongoing high inflation will call for more attention towards social well-being.
A decelerating economy with high inflation tends to favour ESG with a best-in-class approach, to avoid the exclusion of sectors that could benefit from inflation.
Top-down view from macro / geopolitical / regulation
Food security across asset classes
Infrastructure in focus to support the energy transition and the geopolitical re-shoring trend
Energy transition (reinforced after the crisis), with opportunities in both equities and green bonds
From a top-down standpoint, key themes are:
4 ESG Themes for 2023
End 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Investing in 2023
The Possible Solutions
![](https://media-s3-us-east-1.ceros.com/amundi/images/2022/12/05/7984a114f3455b68a172db3be0fe7ead/matteo.jpg)