Hover on the shaded area for more information.
Countries with donwside scenario in 2024
Mixed scenario
Countries with upside scenarios in 2024
Tighter
US election and China's faster-than-expected tech advance will lead to further downside for the US/China relationship.
United States
Will not escalate into a regional
war, and expansion of coflict drawing Iran would be a downside
Middle East
EU and UK’s effort to position themselves will be hindered by elections.
Rising US-China tensions mean that European investors in China are better positioned
Eurozone
Centre of new supply chain routes in Asia but also rich in natural resources
Latin America
China should diversify away from the US
China
Russia will be motivated to hold out in 2024 in the hope of a change in the WHite House
Russia
Geopolitical Alignment
India
Gaining global influence, establishing as new 'poles' in the multi-polar world
Geopolitical realignment will also play out in 2024, with messy consequences
As 2023 draws to a close and the conflict between Israel and Hamas rages on, the geopolitical realignment underway is now in plain sight. The ruptures that have come to the forefront since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s emergence as a challenger to the US world order, will continue to play out in 2024. As global powers compete, most countries will refuse to be boxed into a bipolar world, but instead continue to prioritise individual needs. The US and the EU will lose influence as other powers rise. Regimes keen to undermine the US will seek to exploit this vulnerability and will work together to do so, while others will seek to improve their negotiating position. While the US will try to keep its allies close, its ability to do so will be constrained. On the one hand, the US is stretched by having to offer military support on multiple fronts. On the other, the possible return of Donald Trump to the presidency also threatens the US relationship with allies. The EU and UK’s efforts to position themselves anew for the geopolitical context will also be hindered by elections. We expect 2024 to be a year of transition, growing tensions and protectionism.
China should diversify away from the US
China
Russia will be motivated to hold out in 2024 in the hope of a change in the WHite House
Russia
Will not escalate into a regional
war, and expansion of coflict drawing Iran would be a downside
Middle East
Centre of new supply chain routes in Asia but also rich in natural resources
Latin America
EU and UK’s effort to position themselves will be hindered by elections.
Rising US-China tensions mean that European investors in China are better positioned
Eurozone
US election and China's faster-than-expected tech advance will lead to further downside for the US/China relationship.
United States
Tighter
Mixed scenario
Countries with upside scenarios in 2024
Countries with donwside scenario in 2024
Hover on the shaded area for more information.
Geopolitical Alignment