Legal | Privacy | Cookie Notice
Read The One Brief
Developed by Aon, The One Brief explores how organizations can prepare for political risk and terrorism as implications become more widespread.
Explore aon.com
Share:
Access the Interactive Risk Maps | Download Full Report
Sign Up for Analysis
The One Brief
Contact an Expert
Quarterly Analysis
Contact an Expert
Feel that you would benefit from further insights into your Political Risk and Terrorism and Political Violence insurance programmes? Speak with one of our team about your exposures and the solutions available.
Sign up
Aon plc (NYSE:AON) is a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries empower results for clients by using proprietary data and analytics to deliver insights that reduce volatility and improve performance.
The Risk Advisory Group provides intelligence, investigations, screening and security management to support organisations dealing with complex international threats. Our guidance, intelligence and analysis help many of the world’s foremost businesses negotiate challenging and uncertain environments to choose the right opportunities, in the right markets, with the right partners.
Continuum Economics is the international market-leading service for independent economic research powered by 4Cast and Roubini Global Economics. With its growing user base of 10,000 clients and a reputation for incisive analysis on every aspect of the market, it provides research that spans short-term market signals and long-term strategic themes.
Insights into the Political Risk, Terrorism and Political Violence environment are available to clients interested in the threat posed to their people and operations.
Serious Incidents:
04/01/2016-
Sidra, Sirte
Target:
Business-Extractives-Oil
Deaths: 3
Injured:0
4 ATTACKS
Serious Incidents:
26/11/2016- Pasni thesis, Gwadar, Baluchistan
Target:
Business-Extractives-Oil
Deaths: 2
Injured:0
7 ATTACKS
Serious Incidents:
15/05/2016- Taji, Saladin
Target:
Business-Extractives-Oil
Deaths: 11
Injured: 21
7 ATTACKS
Serious Incidents:
08/06/2016- Teorama, Norte de Santander
Target:
Business-Extractives-Oil
Deaths: 2
Injured:0
22 ATTACKS
Serious Incidents:
01/06/2016- Omadino Idjere junction, Warri, South Local Governorate, Niger Delta
Target:
Business-Extractives-Oil
Deaths: 2
Injured:4
56 ATTACKS
7.51% Likelihood as Target
7.51% Likelihood
as Target
7.51% Likelihood
as Target
11.86% Likelihood as Target
8.70% Likelihood
as Target
33.20% Likelihood
as Target
“The interaction between risk transfer and mitigation - and how to develop the most responsive solutions - is best informed when we are more articulate about the threat. If we can understand what might reasonably reach out and impact our people and organisation, then we are better able to apply best fit, consistent approaches to manage risk.”
Scott Bolton, Aon
“We’ve found two key trends: Inter-state tensions driving up political violence risks and diversifying terrorist threats. The trend of extremists being the main political violence concern is shifting to geopolitical risks, including war. These are more business-threatening and demand higher-level ownership."
Henry Wilkinson, The Risk Advisory Group
204
2017
1,092
1,133
96
2016
Source: The Risk Advisory Group
2017
2016
Download Full Report
Terrorism incidents in the West doubled in 2017 but, at the same time, casualties remained roughly the same as security services took steps to restrict access to heavy vehicles – a favoured improvised weapon among terrorists in the past 18 months. Nevertheless, terrorism risk remains elevated in Europe and North America, with threats apparent from both jihadist and far-right groups.
Terrorist incidents in the West doubled in 2017, but casualties
were roughly the same.
75% drop in fatalities.
The use of vehicles as improvised weapons was the most lethal form of terrorist attack in the West for the second year running. However, there was
WATCH
Our video analysing the abdication of global political leadership and what this means for international security
Access the Interactive Risk Maps
“In Asia, exports to China are fast replacing those of the US, while Asian economies are now increasingly reliant on demand from China. This two-way growth is positioning China at the heart of the continent, but is also creating complex dependencies. Regional trade, both globally and with China will continue to grow this year even in the case of increased US protectionism.”
Paulina Argudin,
Continuum Economics
"If we include the six elections scheduled for 2019, 14 out of the 18 Latin American countries will hold their presidential elections within a two-year period. Make no mistake, this will be a turbulent time for the region."
Sarah Taylor, Aon
Asian countries have been increasing their reliance on China for export growth
Presidential
runoff
October 28
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
20
15
10
5
0
2002
What does the shifting balance of power in Asia mean for trade in the region?
How will Latin America’s super-election cycle increase political risk in the region?
What are the structural factors impacting sovereign risk in West Africa?
What are the geopolitical implications of the GCC blockade?
-
-
-
-
% Export to China
Paraguay
Colombia
El Salvador
Brazil
Venezuela
Cuba
Costa Rica
Presidential & legislative elections
October 7
Presidential election
May 20
Presidential
transition of power
April 19
Presidential &legislative elections
February 4
Presidential runoff
April 28
Presidential & legislative elections
April 22
Presidential election
March 27
Legislative elections
March 11
Legislative elections
March 4
Presidential &legislative elections
July 1
Mexico
% Export to US
Terrorism
Political Risk
Key Political Risk findings provide insight and deeper analysis into the following questions:
Access the Interactive Risk Maps
Download Full Report
WATCH
Our video on the shifting balance of economic power in Asia
Access the Interactive Risk Maps
What 2017’s developments mean for international trade and security
Key findings from this year’s Political Risk, Terrorism and Political Violence maps provide insights and analysis for a number of pressing questions:
Political violence risk rose in 2017 due to complex and protracted armed conflicts between multiple state and non-state actors - which has had a degrading effect on international stability and security.
Why is the tourism sector so exposed to rising levels of international terrorism?
What impact will Latin America’s election super-cycle have on regional stability?
How is the balance of power shifting in Asia and what are the implications for regional trade?
Competition for global political leadership and shifting patterns of trade
What does competition for global political leadership mean for international security and terrorism?
Share:
Access the Interactive Risk Maps | Download Full Report |
Sign Up for Analysis
Political Risk
Terrorism
Blockades, tourist targets and a world of greater uncertainty
Aon’s Global Terrorism and Political Risk Maps
©2018 Aon plc. All rights reserved.