The global biofuels sector demonstrated resilience over the first quarter of 2025, despite various shifts in regional dynamics, policies and trade. Demand continues to be heavily influenced by government policies and mandates. In North America, the EPA is set to raise mandates for 2026 and perhaps 2027. In Europe, the transposition of RED III is set to drive substantial growth, especially in RD demand. Asia-Pacific is witnessing aggressive mandates, such as Indonesia’s B40 and India’s E20.
Global biofuels demand
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Global biodiesel, RD and SAF feedstock demand
Global SAF demand
Global and regional RD and SAF S&D balances
RD and SAF capacity by technology
North America and European Biofuels price forecasts
Global biofuels demand
Recent global biofuels and trade policy shifts have started reconfiguring feedstock slates across regions. In the long term, the biofuels sector continues to grapple with the question of feedstock supply, which will increasingly face legislative and availability limits.
Global biodiesel, RD and SAF feedstock demand
SAF remains a focal point in all regions, driven by new mandates and state-level incentives. Demand in Europe will increase over the year as fuel suppliers prepare for compliance. North America’s SAF market is poised for growth, albeit hindered by the lack of a binding federal mandate.
Global SAF demand
Global RD and SAF supply and demand could continue building on its surplus this year, further pressuring an already oversupplied market. We now expect the global balance to tip into deficit in 2030, without taking into consideration very provisional plants. When taking these into account, they could keep the balance to 2035.
Global and regional RD and SAF S&D balances
Hydrotreatment remains the dominant technology for RD and SAF production, but other technologies are scheduled to start commercialising by the end of the decade. Feedstock availability issues for HEFA may speed up investment in alternative technologies.
Global and regional
North American
US ethanol prices are expected to keep steady as no substantial changes are expected to corn prices across the forecast period. Rising soybean oil prices beyond 2030 are expected to lift biodiesel prices, whereas renewable diesel prices are expected to rise sharply beyond 2030.
North America and European Biofuels price forecasts
Argus Biofuels Analytics Q2 2025 Executive Summary
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Global RD capacity is expected to reach 20.8mn t in 2025. Most capacity additions this year focus on SAF, with new SAF capacity outweighing new RD capacity. Global SAF capacity is forecast to double to 8.9mn t in 2025 and could double again to 17.6mn t by 2030 or triple to 33.1mn t when including very provisional capacity in 2030.
Global RD and SAF capacity
Global RD and SAF capacity