Although many US cargoes are likely to be redirected back to the Asian market, following the lifting of sanctions, Europe will likely see a short term increase in imports from the US.
But limited local supplies will prevent any price drops from persisting for an extended period.
Polish prices have normalised relative to western Europe following recent volatility. Prices may rise as we appraoch peak Autogas demand season.
Europe
North America
North America
The tariff announcements caused a large disconnect between Chinese and wider Asian prices.
The temporary reduction in tariffs has caused this spread to narrow, but it remains far above historical norms.
The ongoing uncertainty around the China-US trade talks will keep this dynamic in place, until we get more clarity on tariffs.
Weak crude prices in next couple of months will keep outright LPG prices muted.
Asia
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The re-opening of China to US cargoes following the reduction in US China tariffs has buoyed LPG prices at the USGC.
Uncertainty continues to drag on exports to China though. The length of the voyage between the US and China amplifies risk.
Low inventories and firmer export demand should see prices rising, but, this depends heavily on the outcome of US-China discussions.
The uncertainty from tariffs paralysed the freight sector, but prices swiftly recovered even before the tariffs were alleviated.
Prices will remain strong in the short term as the market makes up for the previous pause in activity.
As the Nederland terminal comes online later this year the freight market will become increasingly tight.
Freight
LPG arbitrage map
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The terminal fee has fallen to the narrowest level in almost half a year off the back of strong domestic demand providing an alternative outlet to excess propane
Export volumes have only been impacted marginally by the cold weather as terminal capacity was the limiting factor
We expect terminal fees to rise as local demand eases and are unlikely to ease until 2H25 when new terminal capacity comes online
Tariffs represent a substantial risk factor, but we currently are not including any in our forecasts
South America
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Colder temperatures over the past month have succeeded in pushing up LPG prices
TTF natural gas now sits at a significant premium to LPG causing fuel switching
But the weather is expected to warm in the coming months and ample US supplies are arriving in February
As a result prices will start to decline from March onwards
Middle East
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South America
Europe
Middle East
Asia
Freight
North America
South America
Europe
Middle East
Asia
Freight
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