A steady year for Australian M&A in 2024
43 binding $50 million+ public M&A deals were announced with an aggregate deal value of $45.3 billion – slightly lower than the 45 deals valued at $71.5 billion in 2023, though 2023 was skewed by one massive $26.1 billion transaction.
43 binding
$50 million+
public M&A deals
Positive signs for 2025
Factors such as declining inflation, falling interest rates, available debt and equity funding, distressed asset opportunities and a low Australian dollar are priming the market in 2025.
The M&A market will, however, need to navigate changes to competition laws including mandatory merger notifications and a potential transaction slowdown while the Federal election takes centre stage in Q2. The Trump administration's policies and how the business world adjusts to them could be the wild card which determines if 2025 is a strong or average year for M&A.
Schemes remain the deal structure of choice
32 M&A deals (approx. 79% of total deal value) in 2024 involved schemes of arrangement, with only 11 takeover bids. Schemes were used in 10 of 11 mega deals (>$1 billion) and had higher success rates (92% of schemes were successful in 2024 vs. 73% of takeovers).
79
%
Structured as a scheme in 2024
of total deal value
Materials sector led the way, followed by IT and Industrials
Materials was the most active sector in 2024, with 33% of deals and $24.9 billion total deal value, and significant interest from foreign investors as seen in Alcoa's $3.3 billion acquisition of Alumina. IT came in second, at 14% of deals and $10.2 billion total deal value. Industrials was third, with 12% of deals and $3.1 billion total deal value.
of deals
%
33
total deal value
$24.9b
Private capital accounted for 30% of all deals and enjoyed a high success rate of 91% in 2024. However, total deal value was relatively low at $5.5 billion.
The growing influence of private capital
91
success rate
%
30
of all deals
%
83% of all hostile deals were successful in 2024, a significant improvement on recent years. Hostile deals were nearly as successful as friendly transactions (87% success rate).
Hostile deals were significantly more successful
Reverse break fees featured in 63% of Australian deals in 2024, up from 56% of deals in 2023 and 51% in 2022.
Steady increase in reverse break fees
2024
2023
2022
63%
56%
51%
Transactions continue to face increased attention from regulators (ie ACCC, ASIC and FIRB), in advance of new mandatory merger notification rules.
Increased attention from regulators and imminent changes to Australia's merger review regime
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39
2023
2022
2024
45
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
$50m to $500m
$500m to $1bn
$1bn+
8
5
26
11
3
31
11
2
30
Materials
IT
Industrials
55%
33%
22%
14%
7%
12%
The M&A market will, however, need to navigate changes to competition laws including mandatory merger notifications and a potential transaction slowdown while the Federal election takes centre stage in Q1. The Trump administration's policies and how the business world adjusts to them could be the wild card which determines if 2025 is a strong or average year for M&A.
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Number of Deals announced
Proportion by total deal value
Proportion by number of deals
success rate
Hostile takeovers
Friendly transactions
83%
87%
success rate
success rate