FULL-SCALE SANCTIONS
POSSIBLE EFFECTS
Economic Value at Direct Risk of Disruption
Blocking sanctions on several smaller banks with military or strategic technology ties
Economic countermeasures aimed at China’s financial system
LIMITED SANCTIONS
Hundreds of millions of dollars in disrupted cross-border transactions, likely redirected to other financial institutions
Minimal impact on China’s financial system
Low global spillovers
Major disruptions to China’s financial system
Large immediate interruptions to trade with China
Potential contagion to global financial institutions
Minimal impact on China’s financial system
Low global spillovers
POSSIBLE EFFECTS
$3.7 trillion in Chinese overseas bank assets and reserves under potential risk of disruption
$178 billion in G7 banking assets held in China under potential risk of disruption
Hundreds of millions of dollars in disrupted cross-border transactions, likely redirected to other financial institutions
Economic Value at Direct Risk of Disruption
Blocking sanctions on China’s four largest banks, the China’s Ministry of Finance, and the People’s Bank of China
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
BROAD SANCTION PACKAGE
POSSIBLE EFFECTS
Economic Value at Direct Risk of Disruption
Sanctions on a narrow group of CCP, government, and PLA officials
Economic countermeasures aimed at individuals and entities associated with CCP and PLA leadership
NARROW SANCTION PACKAGE
Negligible, given narrow target set and likely domestic scrutiny around their wealth
Limited financial impact.
Unlikely to be effective given targets’ alignment with leadership actions on Taiwan
Non-negligible and asymmetric financial impact on targets
Potentially limited effect given limited political sway of business elites
POSSIBLE EFFECTS
Tens of billions of dollars in exposed overseas assets
Economic Value at Direct Risk of Disruption
Sanctions on a broad group of officials and business elites
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH