What has surprised you so far either from the US side or the China side in this tit-for-tat escalation?
Almost everything Trump has done is a little different than what I expected… I was surprised by how quickly the Trump administration escalated on China.
The real debate around China is how can they make up for the loss of demand… If the current structure of the tariffs remains... you’re gonna lose all your exports to the US, but you’re going to have ample opportunities to ship parts to other third parties and do assembly elsewhere.
It’s an emergency economic powers tool that… dates back to [the] Cold War, to do essentially universal tariffs… If I were in the administration as a lawyer, I would be concerned that it’s a novel use of a statute.
What I think will happen is the administration will find a way to punt the real decisions until September, because I don't think there will be the basis for major deals.
If Europe is able to create a single market with the kind of demand power that the United States has had, Europe’s going to be in a really strong position.
How do you assess China’s situation?
Explain how novel the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to introduce tariffs is.
What do you think will happen when the pause on “reciprocal” tariffs ends?
How is Europe dealing with the fallout from the high tariff walls?
Josh Lipsky
Josh Lipsky
Josh Lipsky
Josh Lipsky
Josh Lipsky
Brad Setser
Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Beth Baltzan
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center
Beth Baltzan
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center
Beth Baltzan
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center
Brad Setser
Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations