The rubber really hits the road on second-round effects [of the Iran war], and we won't have definitive evidence of second-round effects for a while.
Megan Greene
External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
We probably will see inflation jump up into that threshold of 3 to 3.5 percent where people notice it.
There seems to be this consensus view that because the Fed is the central bank for the world's largest economy, that when the Fed kind of sneezes, everybody else catches a cold . . . For a small open economy like the UK, it actually turns out that the opposite is often true.
I see a few dead ringers for negative supply shocks, and one is climate change . . . And also economic statecraft, which seems here to stay I think, represents negative supply shocks for someone. Take tariffs, for example . . . I just think that we have a bunch more negative supply shocks coming down the pike.
If you have an energy shock and people are paying much more for their energy bills and potentially food bills . . . you could have households pull back even more, so there are definitely downside risks to demand. I think that's important, but I think that the upside risks to inflation are paramount.
Megan Greene
External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
Megan Greene
External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
Megan Greene
External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
Megan Greene
External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England