No respite
Profit from selling groceries is likely to remain squeezed by rising costs, price pressure,
and heavy investment
170
150
130
110
70
90
2016
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
US
Europe
Mind the loyalty gap
Grocers with a low Net Promoter Score are particularly exposed,
because loyal shoppers spend more than detractors
Grocer with highest NPS
Pandemic rebound
Grocer with lowest NPS
Inflationary pressures
Revenue
EBIT margin
Volume
Forecast
Strength from the core
Enhancing omnichannel 3.0 capabilities will be key to winning in grocery
Offset inflation by using advanced analytics/AI to buy better and focus price investments and promotions where it changes price perception
Constantly optimize assortment, differentiating through private label
Perfect every episode
of the customer journey, not just a few stages
Build a profitable online fulfillment model tailored to each catchment area
€102
Detractors
€184
Promoters
29
–37
Make rapid and agile trade-offs on where to invest (and where not to) as disruption continues
Growth beyond trade
Grocers can thrive if they also expand into higher-margin activities outside their core
Potential EBIT margin
B2B
B2C
Retail media
Tech solutions (e.g., SaaS)
Consumer banking services
Healthcare services
Marketplace
Pet care services
Travel services
Data monetization
Cloud services
60%–80%
15%–25%
3%–25%
5%–15%
3%–15%
3%–10%
3%–10%
2%–8%
20%–40%
Additional ingredients
Combine technology, talent, scale, and stakeholders to succeed
TECH UP
PLAY TALENT TETRIS
CONTINUOUSLY RECHARGE
SERVE ALL STAKEHOLDERS
Use technology and generative AI to stand out and streamline
Optimize investment
to catch up with
tech leaders
Become the employer
of choice: Happy employees equal happy customers
Future-proof your talent mix, while reskilling and upskilling
Free up extra investment funds by pushing costs down year after year
Scale up through M&A
to spread out the investment burden
Give customers, employees, suppliers, and communities
the same weight as investors
By 2030,
US
Europe
Notes: Europe data based on modeling for UK, France, and Germany; promoters defined as those answering 9 or 10
when asked how likely they are to recommend a grocer, on a scale of 0–10; detractors defined as those answering 0–6.
Sources: Bain NPS Prism US Grocery survey (n=17,423); Food & Grocery Bain Shopper Pulse survey (n=7,436 for UK, France, and Germany); Bundesanzeiger; EDGE; Euromonitor; IRI; Office for National Statistics; Pyxis; S&P Capital IQ; Statista; USDA Economic Research Service; company financials; expert interviews.
Net Promoter®, NPS®, NPS Prism®, and the NPS-related emoticons are registered trademarks of Bain & Company, Inc., NICE Systems, Inc., and Fred Reichheld. Net Promoter Score and Net Promoter System are service marks of Bain & Company, Inc., NICE Systems, Inc., and Fred Reichheld.
Revenue
EBIT margin
Volume
Change indexed to 2016
Average monthly spending at grocer, by shopper loyalty
40%–60%
of a grocer’s profit could come from “beyond trade” activities
Click on a globe to see data for the region
$79
Detractors
$147
Promoters
71
12
Grocer with lowest NPS
Grocer with highest NPS®
Average monthly spending at retailer, by shopper loyalty
SM
Notes: Europe data based on modeling for UK, France, and Germany; promoters defined as those answering 9 or 10 when asked how likely they are to recommend
a grocer, on a scale of 0–10; detractors defined as those answering 0–6.
Sources: Bain NPS Prism US Grocery survey (n=17,423); Food & Grocery Bain Shopper Pulse survey (n=7,436 for UK, France, and Germany); Bundesanzeiger; EDGE; Euromonitor; IRI; Office for National Statistics; Pyxis; S&P Capital IQ; Statista; USDA Economic Research Service; company financials; expert interviews.
Net Promoter®, NPS®, NPS Prism®, and the NPS-related emoticons are registered trademarks of Bain & Company, Inc., NICE Systems, Inc., and Fred Reichheld. Net Promoter Score and Net Promoter System are service marks of Bain & Company, Inc., NICE Systems, Inc., and Fred Reichheld.