AI ABUNDANCE
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The explosive rise of AI technologies eventually leads to global cooperation on strict regulatory standards—enabling exceptional productivity growth, plentiful low-carbon energy, and governments that prioritize stability over individual liberty.
BATTLING BLOCS
The world transitions to a tense stalemate among economically decoupled and mutually distrustful blocs. International trade and cooperation decrease, while national governments centralize power and control of critical resources to face external threats.
CLIMATE COALITION
An onslaught of extreme weather shocks drives nations to prize resilience over unbridled economic growth—and a multilateral agreement on carbon standards unlocks green innovation and infrastructure buildout.
DIGITAL DARWINISM
With governments and institutions in retreat, corporations dominate a low-regulation, rapidly warming world. Inequality soars, with work increasingly taking place in the gig economy, while huge leaps are made for the wealthy in bionics and longevity technology.
A warmer climate has reduced global crop yields, increasing reliance on technology to replace what nature once provided. Bioengineered crops, precision agriculture, and urban vertical farms like this one are now commonplace, supplementing rural production and stabilizing food supplies through tightly controlled, tech-intensive systems.
Nature loss is slowing thanks to sustained, high-tech intervention, but several ecological tipping points have already been breached. AI-driven monitoring and restoration technologies are deployed at scale to rebuild habitats, and advanced carbon removal systems actively clean the atmosphere.
AI and robots are everywhere in this scenario, from offices to schools to factories. The increased productivity means working hours have fallen, and four- or even three- day workweeks are common.
It’s a normal spring day, but heat exposure is a real risk. City centers are organized around climate-controlled “cooling bubbles”—offices, transit hubs, and public spaces designed for extreme heat. Compared with 25 years ago, heat wave days are roughly eight times more frequent, reshaping urban life.
Humans are still essential for some jobs, like those in the caring profession, as well as AI oversight and governance. AI and robots are trusted for almost everything, thanks to global regulation of AI models, but people are still needed for roles requiring high-value judgment.
climate coalition
battling bloCS
AI Abundance
hub
Tech-Intensive Agriculture
Four-Day Workweeks
Hot World, Cooling Bubbles
The Restoration of Nature
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digital darwinISm
Work Transformed by AI
AI technologies drive all aspects of society, and data centers like these are commonplace. A series of escalating cyberattacks in the 2030s known as the Compute Wars led to multilateral regulations on AI models and greater cybersecurity enforcement. Now, regulated tech stacks and data interoperability standards have led to rapid breakthroughs.
Ubiquitous AI
This world is tense and untrusting. Each bloc invests heavily in surveillance, cyber defense, and physical security to protect its borders and infrastructure. Defense spending is at 7% of global GDP, a huge jump from 2.4% in the 2020s.
Government propaganda emphasizes loyalty to the blocs, and most people feel a sense of belonging and purpose. The global internet has been replaced by a local version, and information about rival blocs is heavily censored.
With globalization rolling backwards, each bloc needs to be self-sufficient. A huge reorganization of society and work has taken place, with land taken over for farming and factories. Governments play an active market role in key industries like manufacturing and defense.
It’s late morning, and some people have been lining up since dawn. Many goods are scarce, because local supply chains can’t cope with demand. A thriving black market operates on the sidelines, especially for those who want products from rival blocs.
Despite the drop in international travel, the skies are busy. This plane is seeding clouds with silver iodide, forcing it to rain on crops on this side of the border, rather than in rival territory. Advanced geoengineering is another tool in the tense interplay between blocs.
Climate change is mainly a question of adaptation and resilience. In areas where sun and wind are plentiful, low-carbon energy generation is prioritized because it supports energy resilience, while other parts of the world continue to rely on their own sources of fossil fuels.
Self-Reliance over Climate Mitigation
Competitive Geoengineering
Scarcity of Goods
Local Production
Surveillance and Control
Defense Technology
Large emissions cuts came from retrofitting what already existed. Buildings are insulated, electrified, and connected to smart grids that manage peak demand. Heat pumps, district energy, and efficiency upgrades are ubiquitous.
Making Better Use of What’s Already Here
In the central park, a protest is taking place. Many young people feel they’re being treated unfairly, financing the energy transition through a heavy tax burden, as a result of climate damage their generation didn’t cause. With public debt high, governments have few options to cool tensions.
Youth Protestors
Huge investments and innovations in low-carbon energy have enabled rapid energy transitions across the world. Most of the electricity mix comes from renewable, biomass, and nuclear sources—a full 92%. That’s a jump from 41% in the 2020s.
Renewable Energy Infrastructure
People live leaner, less consumerist lives owing to higher costs of living and changing attitudes about waste. Carbon taxes mean many goods are much less affordable. Retailers have adapted, offering recycling and repair facilities and longer-lasting products. Every item comes with a carbon passport, as customers prioritize their impact on the environment.
Changing Habits
An aging population in the Global North means labor is scarce, and people retire much later. The caring professions have expanded dramatically, while new roles have developed to oversee AI in low-carbon energy generation, engineering, and biotechnology.
Work for Everyone
Although the population continues to grow, the loss of natural environments has slowed as a result of significant investment in nature-based climate solutions. While some tipping points have been breached (for example, the collapse of fish stocks), carbon taxes have enabled funding of large-scale interventions to dampen the societal impacts.
The Natural World
Global temperatures continue to rise beyond 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and many ecological tipping points have been breached. Changes to weather patterns are a major drag on global GDP. Food production now relies heavily on technology-intensive environments, as nature can no longer provide.
Tipping Points Breached
The top 1% are the tech elite and their investors, thanks to tech deregulation and the rise of megacorporations. They live in beautiful, temperature-controlled homes, connected by walkways, and are rarely exposed to heat or disruptions. The only people outside are the ones who have to be.
A Temperature-Controlled Lifestyle
For most workers, jobs are insecure and competitive. From hospitality to construction—and even these firefighters—jobs are assigned through apps on a gig work system. Workers are managed and assessed by AI cobots, which are part friendly coworker, part all-seeing manager.
The Gig Economy
The gulf between the haves and the have-nots is vast, with most people living in cramped apartments with decaying infrastructure. Work and leisure time is spent plugged into VR headsets and immersion pods. Digital addiction is endemic, and average human happiness has declined from the 2020s.
Life Outside of the Elite
For the wealthy, longevity treatments and cognitive enhancements are the must-have luxury goods. But these AI-driven breakthroughs increasingly benefit those who can pay. Outside of the elite, healthy life expectancy is on the decline.
The Luxury of Longevity
Geoengineering Projects
With public budgets chronically strained, private actors take the lead on tackling global challenges. Trillionaire-funded geoengineering projects like these orbital reflectors, which reflect sunlight to cool the planet, proceed without global coordination, raising questions about legitimacy, risk, and who decides how the planet is managed.
