PIPE Climate

Climate Investment Opportunities

Low-carbon hydrogen

CCUS and DAC

Sustainable fuels

Renewable natural gas

Grid renewables and storage

Distributed energy and efficiency

Nature-based solutions and carbon markets

Waste management and recycling

Asset centric

Technology centric

Service centric

Technology provider handles EPC within facility

Integrated point-soure capture, transport, and storage projects

Facility-level point source capture

Midstream development and operation

Emerging capture tech

Emerging utilization tech

Mature utilization applications

DAC OEMs

Compressors and other system components

EPC and O&M services

Low-carbon hydrogen (H ), a crucial decarbonization lever for many sectors, is expected to show sustained double-digit growth through 2050 in North America. In the near-term, IIJA funding of $8 billion for six to ten regional hubs and the IRA’s production tax credit of up to $3/kg are likely to drive a sharp increase in projects. Although project economics should improve over time, early movers can gain an advantage by securing favorable production locations, rights-of-way for transport, and scarce geological storage.

Asset centric

Technology centric

Service centric

Renewable power generation

Mature system components (e.g., compressors, separation membranes)

EPC and O&M services

Transport and storage infrastructure

Power

H production

Storage

Transport

Retail

Industrial processes

Transport applications

Power and heat generation

Production facilities

Refueling stations

Integrated into existing industrial facilities

H fleet operator

H CHP plants

Electrolyzer OEMs

Fuel cell OEMs

First generation

Second generation

Service centric

Sustainable fuels are hydrocarbons made from organic waste (biofuels) or from H and CO (e-fuels) as replacements for fossil fuels. Biofuels are the more established category and offer the only at-scale solution for decarbonizing modes of transportation that cannot be electrified. These fuels have strong policy support, including a $6 billion allocation under the IRA, the adoption of LCFS in a growing number of US states and in Canada, and the likelihood that US federal RFS will drive strong subsector growth through 2030.

(feedstock agnostic)

Soybean crushing facilities

Animal fats/tallow aggregators and rendering facilities

UCO aggregators

Crushing equipment manufacturers

Advanced second-generation renewable fuels technology developers

EPC and O&M services

Carbon offsets from BECCS

LCFS and RIN trading

Asset centric and technology centric

Asset centric

Tech centric

Sustainable fuels integrated into existing fuel transport, storage, and distribution

RNG is produced through anaerobic digestion of organic feedstocks to produce biogas, which is then filtered to remove impurities and upgraded to methane. Upgrading allows direct injection of the final product into existing natural gas infrastructure. In North America, IRA investment tax credits of up to 50%, LCFS and RIN credit programs in the US and Canada, and cost recovery mechanisms for utilities are expected to drive strong growth through 2040. Even so, market expected to remain supply-constrained, creating pricing opportunities.

Haulers and aggregators

Conversion

Transportation, marketing, and distribution

Trading

Asset centric

Technology centric

Service centric

Upgrading

Organic food waste

Agricultural

Landfill gas

Wastewater

Organic food waste RNG facilities

Agricultural RNG facilities

Landfill gas RNG facilities

Wastewater RNG facilities

Hyperlocal market with limited roll-up synergies

Production largely occurs onsite; no haulage needed

Integrated into existing natural gas transport, storage, and distribution

Digesters, upgrading systems, and other production technologies

EPC and O&M services

LCFS and RIN trading

Asset centric

Equipment/ technology centric

Service centric

Generation

Storage

Transmission

Development

Construction

Operations

Equipment

Grid renewables and storage are set for rapid growth over the coming decade. In the US, IRA and IIJA tax credits, along with renewable power standards in 36 states, could shift generation to 65%–80% renewable by 2030 and increase nonresidential storage by 40X–50X. Significant investment in transmission infrastructure—as well as in generation and storage—will be needed to alleviate interconnection bottlenecks. The industry faces compressing returns, but these challenges also create opportunities to invest in technology and services that optimize performance.

Independent power producers

Utility-scale battery storage developers

Transmission developers

LDES technology

Utility-scale battery integrators

Solar racking and tracking

Integration across generation, storage, and transmission is common

Asset performance management technology

Third-party O&M services

EPC

Solar

Battery storage

Smart metering and grid access

Distributed energy resources encompass generation, storage, and efficiency technologies spanning residential and commercial/industrial segments. The space is growing rapidly in response to new technology, lower costs, favorable policies (including several relevant IRA incentives), and greater focus on sustainability and resilience. Historically siloed business models are converging through software and analytics, shifting competitive dynamics and creating new value pools.

Equipment manufacturing

Installation

The demand for voluntary carbon offsets is set to increase by 25 or more per year through 2030. Nature-based credits should continue to dominate the market because of their maturity and the increasing focus on co-benefits. Although supply will grow significantly, a supply gap is likely in the mid-2020s, leading to price opportunities. Multiple market frictions currently make the market inefficient, creating opportunities for technology solutions and services that address these challenges.

The waste management and recycling subsector is transforming as a result of increased emphasis on protecting biodiversity and mitigating the environmentally harmful impact of extracting virgin materials. In North America, standards governing environmental discharges are tightening, and policies that extend producers’ responsibility are under consideration. The subsector encompasses a wide array of businesses along the collection-sorting-treatment-recycling value chain. Investment theses across the landscape are underpinned by roll-up opportunities, long-term recession-proof contracts, and scarcity in the form of limitations on permits or access to high-demand recycled materials.

Electrified heating and cooling

Building automation and energy management

Wholesale and distribution

System/project design

EV charging

Operations and maintenance

Analytics and aggregation

VPP and DERMS

BEMS

E-mobility service providers and charge point platforms

Microgrids and energy-as-a-service

C&I and community solar

ESCO

EV charge point operators

EV-charging hardware OEMs

Solar and storage system designers and installers

Electrical distributors and suppliers

HVAC, heat pump, and sensor distributors and suppliers

HVAC, heat pump, and sensor OEMs

Solar racking

Microinverters and string inverters

Battery OEM

Smart meter OEM

Note: BECCS = bioenergy with carbon capture and storage; EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction; LCFS = low-carbon fuel standard; O&M = operations and maintenance; RFS = renewable fuel standards; RIN = renewable identification numbers; UCO = used cooking oil.

Non-exhaustive

Note: EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction ; IIJA = Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act; IRA = Inflation Reduction Act; LDES = long-duration energy storage; O&M = operations and maintenance; PPA = power purchase agreement.

Non-exhaustive

Note: BEMS = building energy management system; C&I = commercial and industrial; DERMS = distributed energy resource management system; ESCO = energy service company; HVAC = heating, ventilation, and air conditioning; IRA = Inflation Reduction Act; VPP = virtual power plant.

Non-exhaustive

Note: CDM = clean development mechanism; CORSIA = Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation; MRV = monitoring, reporting, and verification; PRA = price reporting agency; SDM = sustainable development mechanism.

Non-exhaustive

Voluntary market offsets (including industry schemes)

Upstream players

Buyers

Midstream and downstream players

Compliance market offsets

Tech players

Project development

Issuance and retirement

Voluntary

Certification

Structuring

Trading

Settlement

Data services

International organizations supporting carbon offset market

Nature-based solutions credit supply

Project developers

Validation/ verification bodies

Private standards

Portfolio managers

Asset-backed retailers

Retailers

Marketplaces

Buyer advisory services

Bilateral agreements

Registry plat-forms

CORSIA registry

Third-party registries

Data providers; industry data; potential PRAs

Individuals

Oil and gas

Corporate

Technology

Power

Aviation

Others

Oil and gas

Technology

Power

Aviation

Bilateral agreements

Brokers

Public standards

CDM/SDM

Marketplaces

Data providers

Joint crediting mechanism

Joint investment

Credit MRV technology

Block-chain-enabled marketplaces

Valuation and data

Note: AI/ML = artificial intelligence/machine learning; D&D = deactivation and decommissioning; EV = electric vehicle; IIJA = Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act; OFW = organic food waste; RNG = renewable natural gas; UCO = used cooking oil. See “Sustainable fuels” and “Renewable natural gas” tabs.

Non-exhaustive

Technology

(e.g., AI/ML and equipment)

Waste-to-energy

(e.g., testing, remediation, clean-up)

Recycling and waste-to-value

Treatment and disposal

Aggregation and sorting

Pickup and collection

Consulting, engineering, and resource management

Waste streams (nonexhaustive)

End customers

Municipal/consumer

Commercial/industrial

Infrastructure

Municipal wastewater

Plastics

Other recyclables

Electronics, paper, and glass recycling

Waste technology

Environmental remediation

Plastics recycling

Incineration

Municipal wastewater RNG production

Biosolids management

Biofuels and RNG production facilities

Specialty

Construction and demolition

Construction and demolition waste management

Hazardous waste management

Wind turbine recycling Nuclear D&D

Organics (OFW, UCO, agriculture)

Industrial hazardous

EV batteries

EV battery recycling

Environmental consulting

OFW and UCO aggregators

Municipal solid waste management

Municipal wastewater systems

Opportunities

Environmental consulting services that support companies in designing effective waste management programs to mitigate risks associated with regulatory compliance and reputation Tailwinds from tightening regulation, enhanced reporting requirements, and ESG pressure Consolidation opportunities involving niche players that specialize in specific segments that might be used to build more comprehensive offerings

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Opportunities

Development and operation of facilities for physical and chemical treatment of sewage sludge to produce biosolids for fertilizer use Recession-resistant long-term contracts with wastewater facilities, with demand for biosolids benefiting from circularity and sustainability tailwinds in agriculture Fragmented landscape, with 200+ regional players in US, presenting roll-up opportunities to drive operational efficiency

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Opportunities

Services and facilities for collecting and sorting municipal solid waste for ultimate transfer to recyclers or landfill Stable market on a trajectory to grow with GDP, bolstered by sticky, recession-resistant municipal contracts Fragmented tail of local companies that could be targets for roll-up plays to improve operational efficiency

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Opportunities

Companies that recover critical minerals from end-of-life EV batteries, often using proprietary technology Critical area to meet growing EV battery demand, given the fundamental shortage and geopolitical risk associated with several key minerals Lock-up of scarce supplies and establishment of offtake agreements with manufacturers essential for plant scale and profitability

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Services and facilities for collection, treatment, and disposal of hazardous industrial waste Opportunity to generate roll-up synergies through improved geographical density and operational efficiencies, in light of long tail of regional players Potential to leverage an asset to build a platform through numerous adjacent services (e.g., industrial cleaning and emergency response)

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Opportunities

Services that divert construction debris from landfill through recycling/reuse to reduce the impact of extracting virgin resources Expected tailwind for the market due to IIJA’s boost to construction Opportunity to target fragmented tail of local companies for roll-up plays to improve operational efficiency

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Opportunities

Facilities for recycling plastics by various means, the most promising of which is use of pyrolysis to produce feedstock for petrochemical plants Tailwinds from voluntary corporate action to reduce plastic waste and from tighter regulations such as rules that extend producer responsibility Key roles of feedstock stability and offtake stability for pyrolysis plants

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Opportunities

Providers of technology and services for removing pollutants or contaminants from water and soil Tailwinds from rising environmental protection standards and an installed base of older infrastructure that requires abatement (e.g., lead and asbestos) Opportunity to pursue roll-up plays in fragmented tail of local companies to improve operational efficiency

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Opportunities

Companies that develop sensors, software, and robotics solutions to optimize processes throughout the waste management and recycling value chain Tailwinds from broader circularity drivers, tightening labor costs for material recovery facilities, and growing capabilities of AI/ML technologies Numerous early-stage companies along the value chain with potential to secure recession-resistant municipal contracts

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Opportunities

Acquisition of land and development of nature-based offsets (e.g., through forest restoration and soil sequestration) Flexibility to optimize for offsets or produced commodities such as timber, depending on prevailing prices Opportunity for roll-up due to highly fragmented ownership of land in North America Complexity in credit verification and price swings in both produced commodities and offsets markets

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Opportunities

Companies that provide advisory services to developers to maximize offset generation and quality Essential service for project developers seeking to navigate complex verification standards and buyer criteria Opportunity to expand scope of offering through roll-up plays in a broad landscape of players with varying capabilities

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Opportunities

Companies that advise credit buyers on purchase strategy for the voluntary and compliance markets Essential service for buyers to ensure credible climate action as they navigate a fragmented offsets market with limited price visibility and widely varying offset quality Opportunity to expand scope of offering through roll-up plays in a broad landscape of players with varying capabilities

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Opportunities

Technology platforms that connect individuals and businesses to credit suppliers, offering greater transparency and lower transaction costs than over-the-counter brokers A premium on players that have built partnerships with sizable credit suppliers and customers, as multiple early-stage platforms enter the market

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Opportunities

Range of technology solutions for measurement, reporting, and verification of nature-based offsets Key unlock to address market frictions related to verifiability, permanence, and additionality of offsets

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Note: EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction; IRA = Inflation Reduction Act; LCFS = low-carbon fuel standard; O&M = operations and maintenance; RIN = renewable identification numbers; RNG = renewable natural gas.

Non-exhaustive

Opportunities

Development or acquisition of commercial and industrial or community solar photovoltaics and storage Mature opportunity that continues to benefit from rising utility rates, falling solar/storage costs, and corporate decarbonization goals Developers can create value through local market density, scale, and portfolio diversification, and disciplined project selection

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Opportunities

Development and operation of public or fleet EV-charging infrastructure With EV adoption growth, charging infrastructure will have to grow even faster given slower start US public charging points expected to require $30 billion or higher capex through 2030, with IRA incentives offsetting cost in low-income and rural communities

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Opportunities

Companies that provide a range of efficiency services, including energy audit, solution design, financing solutions, and execution for commercial and public sector clients, under the umbrella term energy service company Opportunities in an energy efficiency market that continues to be driven by aging infrastructure, corporate sustainability goals, rising energy costs, and government incentives Consolidation opportunities possible among smaller players with deep local relationships but limited services and scale

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Opportunities

Companies that provide services, integration technology, and financing solutions for microgrids to enhance resilience, sustainability, and cost benefits Potential to benefit from overlapping IRA incentives for renewable generation, efficiency, EV charging, and manufacturing

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Opportunities

Companies that supply software to dynamically monitor and control a building's energy needs with the goal of minimizing total energy cost Fast-growing segment of the overall energy efficiency market that allows building owners to capture savings while deferring HVAC capex In a market dominated by large OEMs, opportunities to invest in standalone players that can build niches with custom applications, establish white label partnerships with ESCOs, or serve underpenetrated segments

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Opportunities

Companies that manufacture charging equipment for electric vehicles, including private low-power AC wall boxes, public slow-charging terminals, and public DC fast-charging terminals Opportunity to target production scale and partnerships with leading EV charge point operators, key success factors in this area

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Opportunities

Technology platforms that aggregate and optimize DERMS to dynamically interact with the grid Potential for aggregated DERMS to receive compensation from the grid for deferred investment, demand response, and ancillary services, as well as to capture arbitrage opportunities in energy markets Early stage of implementation despite FERC order 2222 mandating that regional transmission organizations and independent system operators accommodate DERMS aggregations

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Opportunities

Software solutions for managing EV charge points, providing customer interfaces, and enabling interoperability across charging networks Opportunity to pursue partnerships with leading EV charge point operators, a key success factor to realize scale

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Opportunities

Development or acquisition of a portfolio of grid-scale solar or wind generation Projected tripling of installed capacity by 2030 due to cost reduction and policy incentives Need for developers and operators to navigate increased merchant risk and bottlenecks in grid connection and supply chain Potential for developers to manage risk and maximize value through sophistication in project selection, scale for cost efficiencies, and financing structures to optimize cost of capital

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Opportunities

Development or acquisition of a portfolio of utility-scale storage assets, either standalone or co-located with generation Anticipated 40X increase in installed utility storage from 2020 to 2030, driven by increased penetration of renewables and advances in battery technology Significantly improved project economics as a result of addition of storage to the IRA’s investment tax credit program

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Opportunities

Development or acquisition of high-voltage transmission infrastructure Need for significant investment to address grid interconnection bottlenecks and replace aging infrastructure Expectation that IRA and IIJA funding will drive a $70 billion incremental investment in transmission through 2030 Higher returns in transmission than in renewables for developers that navigate permitting hurdles and lengthy development timelines

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Opportunities

Companies that develop long-duration energy storage, with the capacity to store and discharge energy for eight or more hours Greater renewables penetration possible with LDES owing to its cost-effectiveness than an overbuild of lithium-ion storage would accommodate Anticipated 40X growth in total addressable from 2025 to 2035 Potential rapid growth in several emerging technologies approaching commercialization if they can demonstrate economics at scale

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Opportunities

Companies that provide software solutions to maximize the value of renewable generation and storage Key functionalities of data aggregation, generation forecasting, price forecasting, predictive maintenance Likely acceleration in penetration, with margin pressures increasing the need to optimize operations and with growing portfolio complexity Varying player capabilities, which investors must navigate to pick winners

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Opportunities

Engineering, procurement, and construction contracted by developers for renewables, storage, and transmission design and construction Likely to benefit from tailwind of grid investment over the next decade, with potential to roll up local and regional players

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Opportunities

Renewables and storage third-party operations and management service providers Source of best-practice maintenance to optimize performance, with faster response times than OEMs, along with multivendor flexibility Most developed option in solar, with providers beginning to take share from OEMs in storage and wind

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Opportunities

Development of facilities to convert organic food waste into RNG Likely rapid growth despite lower feedstock ceiling, buoyed by high LCFS revenue, corporate zero-landfill targets, and local landfill diversion regulations Additional revenue through tipping fees, with some corporations willing to pay 20% premiums for landfill diversion Optimal site selection with proximity to urban hubs for food waste and to alternative feedstocks critical for success

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Opportunities

Development of facilities to convert livestock waste into RNG Rapid expansion of space over the past five years, outpacing the overall industry, supported by low carbon intensity, relative stability of supply, and California subsidies Potential of agricultural waste to offer the largest economical supply of all major RNG feedstocks Drawbacks of potentially low yield per site and potentially high cost of connecting additional farms to the cluster feeding the facility

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Opportunities

Development of facilities to convert landfill gas into RNG Status of landfill gas as the most mature RNG feedstock, accounting for the bulk of production today and posing a low risk of feedstock disruption Drawbacks of ceilings on new landfill developments and limited opportunity to secure the most economically attractive landfills near gas networks

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Opportunities

Development of facilities to produce RNG from wastewater treatment plants Reliable feedstock supply and lengthy contracts; also, in many cases, presence of onsite anaerobic digestors, which may lower capex Drawbacks of low total availability vs. other feedstocks and potentially low site yield, requiring co-digestion with agricultural or food waste

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Opportunities

Companies that design, manufacture, and service RNG production equipment Various types of equipment (e.g., anaerobic digestors, upgrading systems, decanter centrifuges, and bioextruders) Well-developed technology with innovation (e.g., in catalysts) offering incremental rather than disruptive improvement Downside protection for most players through diversification across multiple oil and gas, petrochemical, and industrial applications

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Opportunities

Companies contracted by developers to design, construct, and operate RNG production facilities Highly fragmented market with limited technical differentiation, making developer relationships and project track record keys to success Downside protection for most players due to diversification across oil and gas and chemicals end markets

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Opportunities

Companies that aggregate and broker LCFS and RIN credits from renewable fuel production Arbitrage opportunity, given market fluctuations and geographical price differences Downside protection for traders that operate across multiple environmental markets in addition to LCFS credits and RINs (e.g., renewable energy certificates)

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Opportunities

Development of facilities for crushing soybeans as a step prior to offtake to soybean oil refineries Likely rapid increase in US soybean crushing capacity (currently at 90%+ utilization) to keep pace with growing renewable fuels demand Announced expansions to increase capacity by 30% by 2025, with further increases needed by 2030 Continued status of soybean oil as a key feedstock, due to its relative security of supply and consistency of quality, despite its sustainability properties being lower than other feedstocks

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Opportunities

Companies that aggregate and render animal fat for refinery offtake Position of animal fat an attractive middle ground for refiners between UCO and soybean oil—second to UCO in sustainability properties and LCFS revenue, and second to soybean oil in supply availability and quality consistency Downside protection for aggregators/renderers due to opportunity to supply oleochemical and pet food industries in addition to renewable fuels

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Opportunities

Companies that collect, aggregate, and pretreat used cooking oil for offtake by refineries Status of UCO as the feedstock of choice, with the highest LCFS revenue, due to having the lowest carbon intensity of first-generation and nonadvanced second-generation feedstocks Opportunity for suppliers to capture incremental margin prices, forecasted to increase by 3X to 5X over 2020–2025 numbers Opportunity for investors to create value by rolling up fragmented supplies to provide consistent quality and volumes to refiners

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Opportunities

OEMs that produce soybean- and other oil-seed-crushing equipment Benefit from tailwind of rapid increase in soybean-crushing capacity over the next decade Downside protection for most players against sustainable fuel market risks as a result of diversification across end markets

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Opportunities

Companies that produce second-generation biofuels, often with proprietary processes and technologies Vital role of second-generation fuels in meeting projected 2030 demand for sustainable fuels, with a potential price premium due to lower carbon intensity and land use impact Early-mover opportunity to secure offtake agreements with key customers such as airlines, and potential to scale rapidly through technology licensing

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Opportunities

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Opportunities

Companies that aggregate and broker low-carbon fuel standard and renewable identification number credits from renewable fuel production Arbitrage opportunity, given market fluctuations and geographical price differences Downside protection for traders that operate across multiple environmental markets in addition to LCFS credits and RINs (e.g., renewable energy certificates)

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Note: EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction; IIJA = Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act; IRA = Inflation Reduction Act; O&M = operations and maintenance. Limited in North America today.

Non-exhaustive

Opportunities

Onsite or offsite renewable generation to supply green H production facilities that must maximize renewable electricity consumption in order to maximize the IRA production tax credit Natural adjacency for developers of grid scale renewables, with the bonus, if onsite, of avoiding current grid interconnection bottlenecks

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Opportunities

Development of low-carbon H or H -derivative (e.g., ammonia) production facilities—either greenfield or via retrofit of existing gray H facilities Rapid growth in domestic demand in North America for low-carbon H through 2030, driven by industrial and transport applications Enhanced US cost-competitiveness owing to the IRA production tax credit, creating export potential Reduction in production costs of 30% or more by 2030, due to declining costs of electrolyzers and renewable energy

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Opportunities

Development of transport and storage infrastructure for low-carbon H , including compression, salt caverns, liquid tankers, pipelines, and CO storage for blue H projects Early-mover opportunity to secure rights-of-way in high-density hubs and scarce geological storage locations; potential for cost reduction and patentable IP in storage Investor access to opportunity through greenfield development or conversion of natural gas infrastructure

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Opportunities

Development of H refueling stations at transport nodes (e.g., ports and trucking stops) Potential acceleration of emerging opportunity due to IRA incentives and improved fuel cell performance (e.g., California to build 200 stations by 2025) Early-mover opportunity to secure the most attractive locations, capture long-term offtake contracts with fleets, and lock in low-carbon H supply, driving predictable noncyclical cash flows

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Opportunities

Companies that manufacture electrolyzers for green H production Projected 9X growth in electrolyzer production by 2025 to meet increasing demand Path to profitability through scale Investor opportunity to secure a stake in OEMs poised for technology and cost leadership as the market expands

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Opportunities

Companies that manufacture fuel cells for mobile and stationary applications Opportunity to shift from low or negative margins today to profitability, as a result of increased production scale Opportunity to build durable advantage with patented technology and locked-in vehicle OEM relationships

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Opportunities

Companies that produce and/or distribute compressors, separator membranes, storage tanks, valves, and other mature system components required along the H value chain Optimized go-to-market for players active in other subsectors to maximize the low-carbon H tailwind, while retaining downside protection through end-market diversification

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Opportunities

Engineering, procurement, and construction and operations and maintenance service providers that operate across the low-carbon H value chain Optimized go-to-market for players active in other subsectors to maximize the low-carbon H tailwind, while retaining downside protection through end-market diversification

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DAC OEMs

Note: CCUS = carbon capture, utilization, and storage; DAC = direct-air capture; EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction; IRA = Inflation Reduction Act; O&M = operations and maintenance.

Non-exhaustive

Note: CCUS = carbon capture, utilization, and storage; DAC = direct-air capture.

Engineering, and operations/maintenance service providers engaged in plant design, construction, and operations Optimized go-to-market to maximize the sustainable fuels tailwind but retain downside protection through exposure to oil and gas and other subsectors Possible proprietary process and tech platforms owned by select engineering targets, creating durable advantage and recurring licensing revenue

Select an area below for a deeper dive

CCUS and DAC

Low-carbon hydrogen

Sustainable fuels

Renewable natural gas

Grid renewables and storage

Distributed energy and efficiency

Nature-based solutions and carbon markets

Waste management and recycling

Utilization

Offsets

Adjacencies

Storage

Transport

Capture

Capture of CO streams from stationery emitters or the atmosphere

Transport

Compression and transport via pipeline for storage or utilization

Storage

Permanent storage in the subsurface onshore or offshore

Adjacencies

Utilization: Repurposing of captured CO for applications (e.g., sequestration, mineralization) Offsets: Generation and trading of carbon offsets from captured CO

Opportunities

Development of a portfolio of integrated point-source capture-transport-storage projects Stable cash flows offered by §45Q and offtake agreements, with potential internal rates of return of 10% to 25% depending on stream concentration and emitter density Early-mover opportunity to capture high-concentration emitters, obtain right-of-way for transport infrastructure, and access scarce geological storage locations in high-density hubs

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Opportunities

Development of carbon capture infrastructure at emitters plugging into existing transport and storage infrastructure Stable cash flows through revenue-sharing model with emitters for §45Q tax credits and CO offtake Early-mover opportunity to capture opportunities with high-concentration CO streams in regions where transport and storage are not bottlenecked

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Opportunities

Development of transportation and storage infrastructure to enable creation of CCUS hubs—either greenfield or converted legacy oil and gas infrastructure Early-mover opportunity to secure right-of-way for transport infrastructure and scarce geological storage locations in high-density hubs to maximize returns

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Opportunities

OEMs that develop carbon capture technology Positioned for rapid growth as carbon capture deployment accelerates, unlocking economies of scale to improve the bottom line Exposure to emerging technologies with cost reduction potential for low-concentration streams, unlocking further demand

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Opportunities

Developers of mineralization, chemical synthesis, and other emerging utilization technologies Mineralization to make building materials: a mature technology with a large addressable market and multiple active early-stage players, with potential exit to cement companies Chemical synthesis (e.g., to produce synthetic fuels): long-term tailwinds in hard-to-abate sectors, with economics expected to become more attractive as costs of renewable energy, low-carbon H , and catalysts decrease

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Opportunities

OEMs that develop and deploy direct-air capture technology Near-term, growing demand from corporations willing to pay a premium for permanent and verifiable engineered removals; long-term potential demand from synthetic aviation fuel Path to 50%+ declines in cost by 2030, despite costs exceeding $500 per ton of CO today Significant valuation growth in funding rounds for market leaders; similar opportunities for emerging players as the market grows

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Opportunities

Suppliers of CO for various mature applications, such as food and beverage and industrial use Opportunity to lock in low-cost CO supplies from high-concentration streams (e.g., ethanol processing), creating a cost advantage as new end-use markets emerge Limited alignment with climate mandates because applications typically do not result in permanent sequestration

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Opportunities

Companies that produce and distribute compressors, tanks, valves, and other system components required for the CCUS value chain Optimized go-to-market for players active in other subsectors to maximize the CCUS tailwind while retaining downside protection through end-market diversification

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Opportunities

Engineering, procurement, and construction and operations and maintenance players active in CCUS development and operation, typically outside plant limits in transport and storage Optimized go-to-market for players active in other subsectors, such as oil and gas, to maximize the CCUS tailwind while retaining downside protection through end-market diversification

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Extensive use of CCUS and DAC to capture and offset emissions from hard-to-abate sectors is crucial to meeting decarbonization goals. The North America market is poised for rapid acceleration in these areas, as government incentives unlock project viability. In the US, the IRA increased the §45Q tax credit to $85 per ton for storage and $60 per ton for utilization, driving a step change in the volume of “in-the-money” emissions to more than 300 megatons—15 times the US’s current capacity.

Transportation and aggregation of feedstock

Conversion

Conversion of feedstock to biogas through anerobic digestion

Transportation, marketing, and distribution

Integration into the existing natural gas supply chain

Trading

Haulers and aggregators

Upgrading

Filtering of impurities and CO from biogas to allow direct injection into existing natural gas infrastructure

Environmental credit transactions linked to renewable natural gas production

Equipment

Production of software and hardware for grid scale renewables

Development

Land acquisition, engineering design, procurement, permitting, and financing for renewable projects

Construction

Logistics, installation, and commissioning for renewable projects

Operations

Asset management, operation, and maintenance to ensure project success

Installation

Installation of distributed energy and efficiency equipment

Equipment manufacturing

Manufacturing of distributed energy and efficiency system components

Wholesale and distribution

Suppliers linking manufacturers with end-customers

System/project design

Techno-economic design of distributed energy and efficiency systems

Operations and maintenance

Management of installed system, with or without ownership in "as-a-service" model

Analytics and aggregation

Software solutions enabling maximization of value derived from installed systems

Midstream and downstream

Marketing and trading of generated carbon credits

Buyers

Acquisition of credits to offset carbon emissions

Upstream players

Development and certifitcation of carbon credits

production

logistics

utilization

production

Production of low-carbon H and derivatives

logistics

Storage, transportation, and retail of low-carbon H and derivatives

utilization

End-use of low-carbon H industrial, transport, power, and heat applications

Feedstock, aggregation, and processing

Conversion

Transportation, marketing, and distribution

Trading

Feedstock, aggregation, and processing

Feedstock collection, pretreatment, and conversion into intermediate products (e.g., soybean crushing or tallow rendering) to be refined

Conversion

Conversion of feedstock oils into renewable fuels; no major technical differences from current refining

Transportation, marketing, and distribution

Integration into existing fuel supply chains

Trading

Environmental credit transactions linked to renewable fuel production

CCUS and DAC

Low-carbon hydrogen

Sustainable fuels

Renewable natural gas

Grid renewables and storage

Distributed energy and efficiency

Nature-based solutions and carbon markets

Waste management and recycling

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Climate Investment Opportunities

Note: CCUS = carbon capture, utilization, and storage; DAC = direct-air capture.

Renewable power equipment dominated by large OEMs; limited transactable opportunities

Waste management and recycling

Nature-based solutions and carbon markets

Distributed energy and efficiency

Grid renewables and storage

Renewable natural gas

Sustainable fuels

Low-carbon hydrogen

CCUS and DAC

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Description