SPONSORED
LENS ON SINGAPORE
Published: SEP 27, 2024
A second Trump presidency
- A bull or bear run for Asia?
This episode was presented by
Dr Joseph Liow, Dean,
College of Humanities,
Arts and Social Sciences, NTU (right); Geoff Howie, Market Strategist, Singapore Exchange (middle); and Claressa Monteiro, Head of Audio,
The Business Times (LEFT)
THE RECENT American presidential election has significant implications globally, particularly for Asia. In the podcast “Lens on Singapore” from The Business Times, host Claressa Monteiro dives deep into what a second Trump presidency could mean for this region with expert insights from Geoff Howie, market strategist at Singapore Exchange (SGX), and Dr Joseph Liow, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University (NTU).
The podcast episode begins by reflecting on the unexpected swiftness of the election results. This sets the stage for a critical analysis of what his re-election signifies.
Bilateral vs multilateral engagements
One of the major focuses is US-Asia relations. Under Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, US foreign policy, especially toward Asia, has already seen considerable changes. Dr Liow suggests that the trends established in Trump’s first term are likely to persist, including a continued focus on bilateral over multilateral engagements.
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Produced by: Emily Liu, Claressa Monteiro & Chai Pei Chieh Edited by: Emily Liu & Claressa Monteiro
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He explains that Trump might double down on his tariff policies, which could have significant effects on China and other countries in the region. The discussion also covers how these tariffs could influence market behaviour and investor sentiment, both in the US and Asia.
Volatility or bull run for markets
The experts delve into the immediate market reactions to Trump’s re-election, which saw a surge in US markets. Howie notes that this surge’s sustainability depends on the new administration's delivery of its economic policies which might introduce increased risks.
The conversation also touches on the complex dynamics of US-China relations. Dr Liow points out that despite the transactional nature of Trump’s approach, which could lead to increased tariffs, the Chinese government is prepared for such unpredictability. President Xi Jinping’s congratulatory message to Trump, is cited as indicative of China’s pragmatic approach.
Implications for Asia
Monteiro brings the discussion closer to home by considering how Trump’s policies might impact inflation and investor sentiment in Singapore and the broader South-east Asian region. A stronger US dollar and increased tariffs could bring significant changes - requiring adaptable strategies from local markets.
The dialogue briefly explores the implications for US security commitments under Trump. Dr Liow notes that any withdrawal from international commitments could have profound global ramifications, affecting not only regional stability but also international relations and security frameworks.
Opportunity for Singapore
Towards the end of the podcast, Monteiro ponders whether Trump’s immigration policies could drive more bright young Asians to seek opportunities in Asia rather than the US, potentially positioning Singapore as a more attractive hub for talent. Moreover, Singapore’s strategic role as a bridge between the US and China is highlighted as a potential opportunity for the nation to leverage its diplomatic relationships.
The podcast concludes on a cautiously optimistic note. While the full impact of Trump’s second term remains uncertain, the discussion underscores the importance of resilience and adaptability.
Tune in to the full episode for analysis that could inform your understanding of the future of US-Asia relations.
The expert perspectives shared by Howie and Dr. Liow, combined with Monteiro's thought-provoking questions, help to make sense of the outcomes and possible futures stemming from this pivotal election.
Do note: The material contained in this podcast is intended for information only and does not constitute recommendation or advice as it does not take into account personal objectives, specific goals or financial situation. UOB does not accept any responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any use of or reliance on the opinions or views expressed in this publication which may be subject to change due to dynamic market conditions.
For more episodes, go to bt.sg/podcasts and if you have feedback or an episode idea, please get in touch at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
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Do note: The material contained in this podcast is intended for information only and does not constitute recommendation or advice as it does not take into account personal objectives, specific goals or financial situation. UOB does not accept any responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any use of or reliance on the opinions or views expressed in this publication which may be subject to change due to dynamic market conditions.
For more episodes, go to bt.sg/podcasts and if you have feedback or an episode idea, please get in touch at btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.
