Women have handled the pressure better
% of finalists who triumph
Yorkshire
is the UK’s baking capital
The Yorkshire and Humber region has produced 4 of the previous 9 winners.
Based on previous series and how this year’s finalists have performed.
Great British
Who will win the final
of the
BAKE OFF
men
women
11
16
3
6
Finalists
Winners
Experience can count in a final
Bakers in their 30s have fared better in the final than those in their 20s.
11 Bakers
4
Winners
5
Finalists
There have been twice as many female winners and a higher proportion of female finalists claim the prize.
Alice, Steph*
David*
*2019 finalists
*2019 finalists
Finalists
Winners
aged 20-29
9
11
2
5
22.2%
45.5%
Alice, Steph*
David*
% of finalists who triumph
27.3%
37.5%
aged 30-39
Based on age at the start of the series
Yorkshire & Humber
1
Winners
5
Finalists
13 Bakers
North West
2019 finalist: David
1
Winners
2
Finalists
18 Bakers
South East
Winning Star Baker is crucial
Nobody has ever won the competition without bagging at least one Star Baker award.
Series winners
Star Baker awards
3+
2
1
0
2
2
4
0
David
Steph(4)
Alice
Excludes the first series when Star Baker wasn’t awarded
Strong starters tend to prevail
Since the current 10-episode format was introduced in series 3, only one winner didn’t claim Star Baker at least once in the first half of the series
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Series
EPISODE
John
Frances
Nancy
Nadiya
Candice
Sophie
Rahul
Alice
Steph
Winner
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
David has not won Star Baker this series.
James
Kimberley
Richard
Nadiya
Andrew
Sophie
Ruby
Alice
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Series*
A strong semi-final performance is often a jinx
Only 2 of the 7 previous finalists who won Star Baker in the semi-final went on to win the series:
John
Frances
Nancy
Nadiya
Candice
Sophie
Rahul
?
Semi-final Star Baker
Series winner
* There was no Star Baker award in series 1.
In series 2 they didn’t award it for the semi-final.
Prue
is the judge to impress
Since Prue Leith replaced Mary Berry, there have been 8 episodes in which the winner of the technical challenge also won Star Baker…
… and in 6 of those it was Prue’s challenge they aced, so she’s clearly the judge to impress
Paul
Prue
Prue
Prue
Prue
Prue
Paul
Prue
Challenge set by
8
8
8
9
9
9
10
10
Series
5
7
9
4
6
9
2
4
Episode
Sophie
Steven
Sophie
Dan
Briony
Ruby
Alice
Steph
Winner
Here’s how this year’s finalists have fared in each judge’s technical challenges:
Challenge set by
Paul
Prue
Alice
David
Steph
(1st, 7th, 6th, 3rd)
(2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st)
(10th, 3rd, 4th, 4th)
(5th, 8th, 6th, 1st, 4th)
(10th, 2nd, 9th, 2nd, 2nd)
(3rd, 1st, 4th, 3rd, 3rd)
Average
rankings
4th
2nd
5th
Average
rankings
5th
5th
3rd
Steph should be Prue’s favourite, having performed the best in her technical challenges …
… however the final challenge is likely to be set by Paul and David has been his star pupil.
The technical challenge could decide the final
Only one previous winner came third in the final technical challenge (Frances in series 4).
3rd
2nd
1st
1
3
4
Excludes series 1 as the first final didn’t contain a technical challenge.
Summarising each finalist’s chances
Steph may have the edge given her status as Prue’s star pupil and David’s lack of Star Baker awards. It doesn’t look good for Alice.
Home town
Gender
Age
Episode performance
Awards are essential
Impress them in technical challenges
Alice
David
Steph
?
2019 finalist: Steph
2019 finalist: Alice
2019 finalist
Paul
Prue
Star Baker
Judges
Yorkshire reigns supreme
Women fare better in finals
30-somethings can handle the pressure
There’s a semi-final jinx
Prue is the judge to impress
Since Prue Leith replaced Mary Berry, there have been 8 episodes in which the winner of the technical challenge also won Star Baker…
Here’s how this year’s finalists have fared in each judge’s technical challenges:
Steph should be Prue’s favourite, having performed the best in her technical challenges …
… however the final challenge is likely to be set by Paul and David has been his star pupil.
… and in 6 of those it was Prue’s challenge they aced, so she’s clearly the judge to impress
Paul
Prue
Prue
Prue
Prue
Prue
Paul
Prue
Paul
Prue
Challenge set by
Challenge set by
Rankings (Average)
Alice
David
Steph
(4th)
(2nd)
(5th)
Rankings (Average)
8
8
8
9
9
9
10
10
Series
5
7
9
4
6
9
2
4
Episode
Sophie
Steven
Sophie
Dan
Briony
Ruby
Alice
Steph
Winner
(5th)
(5th)
(3rd)
1st, 7th, 6th, 3rd
2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st
10th, 3rd, 4th, 4th
5th, 8th, 6th, 1st, 4th
10th, 2nd, 9th, 2nd, 2nd
3rd, 1st, 4th, 3rd, 3rd