Judging the judges – who is the strictest on Strictly?
As the 2022 series of Strictly Come Dancing enters its final weeks, we’ve looked at the factors that could make the difference for the remaining couples
Come
Strictly
In dances overseen by the current judging panel, how often has each given the highest or lowest score?
We have also broken down the scores of the current panel to see which dances they tend to score highest – and lowest – relative to the other three
Which dances sway each judge?
Dancing
Shirley
Craig
Motsi
Anton
Highest
Lowest
32.3%
26.5%
92.8%
27.8%
62.3%
77.1%
18.4%
71.3%
Craig has handed out the lowest score in over 90% of dances, with fewer than one in five seeing him hold up the highest number
Anton is the most generous scorer overall, with over three-quarters of dances seeing him reveal the highest number compared to around one in four where he is the lowest scorer
Includes joint-highest and joint-lowest scores
Craig’s reputation as a tough scorer is well-deserved: he has a lower average score than the other three judges combined in every dance
Craig
He is the least harsh when assessing the Tango: on average his score is just 0.35 points lower than the others
3 best dances
3 worst dances
Tango
Salsa
Quickstep
Rumba
Samba
Couple's
-0.35
-0.67
-0.68
-1.61
-1.46
-1.33
Choice
However when it comes to the Rumba or the Samba he has been brutal, handing out around 1.5 fewer points per dance than his colleagues
3 best dances
Viennese
Rumba
Charleston
+0.56
+0.50
+0.49
Quickstep
Tango
Argentine
Tango
3 worst dances
Motsi is far more positive with her feedback and has scored every dance higher than her colleagues on average
Unlike Craig she is particularly generous when scoring the Rumba but rarely goes higher than the rest for a Quickstep or Tango
Motsi
+0.08
+0.17
+0.19
Waltz
3 best dances
Couple's
Samba
Charleston
Viennese
Salsa
Tango
Choice
3 worst dances
Shirley is the only judge who scores some dances higher and some lower than her peers on average
She is most easily swayed by a Samba and unlike Craig she is partial to a Couple’s Choice dance
Shirley
-0.15
-0.11
-0.06
+0.51
+0.51
+0.40
3 best dances
Rumba
Paso Doble
Jive
Waltz
Tango
Charleston
3 worst dances
The newest judge – having recently retired from being one of the show’s professional dancers, Anton’s empathy with the contestants has resulted in consistently higher-than-average scores
Like Motsi he appears to enjoy the Rumba and can also be swayed by the contrasting energies of a Paso Doble or Jive – but tends to be more restrained when assessing some types of ballroom dance
Anton
+0.14
+0.24
+0.31
+0.83
+0.72
+0.70
Waltz
Here are the average scores received from the quarter-final onwards in every series to date, plus the share of performances awarded a perfect score
Which dances should you hope for in the latter stages?
Charleston
American Smooth
Argentine Tango
Quickstep
Viennese Waltz
Paso Doble
Foxtrot
Salsa
Cha-Cha-Cha
Tango
Waltz
Jive
Rumba
Samba
36%
14%
19%
21%
9%
9%
9%
22%
12%
9%
8%
20%
0%
3%
Average score
Perfect scores
Do the judges’ scores matter?
Natasha (1)
Jill (2)
Alesha (5)
Kara (8)
Harry (9)
Abbey (11)
Jay (13)
Kelvin (17)
37.4
36.5
36.5
36.3
35.9
35.5
35.1
34.9
34.6
34.3
34.0
33.3
32.7
32.6
In recent series the judges’ scores have had little bearing on who eventually wins
Only 8 of the previous 19 champions had the highest combined score going into the quarter-final
The Charleston has proved the easiest dance to excel at in the latter stages of a series, with an average score of over 37 and more than a third of couples getting maximum points from the judges
Meanwhile the Rumba and Samba are dances you ideally want to get out of the way early on, as they rarely yield a big score
Mark (4)
Caroline (12)
Darren (3)
Tom (6)
Chris (7)
Louis (10)
Ore (14)
Joe (15)
Stacey (16)
Bill (18)
Rose (19)
Rank of combined score vs. other quarter-finalists
1st
2nd
3rd or worse
(series)
This compares with 9 winners – including 5 of the last 6 – who ranked third or worse
Decoding the dance-off
Excluding the first and last episodes of a series, the two lowest-scoring couples compete in a dance-off to stay in the competition
However it is rare for the judges to save the couple who they originally scored lower – this only happens around once in every 10 dance-offs
Furthermore, only 5 of the 17 lower-scoring couples who survived had scored 3 points or fewer than their dance-off rivals
Higher
Lower
89.2%
(141)
10.8%
(17)
Being in a dance-off doesn’t mean that you are on borrowed time
In the 13 previous series in which there have been dance-offs, roughly a quarter of eventual winners and half of runners-up were in the bottom two at least once before the quarter-finals
In a dance-off before the quarter-final?
Winners
Runners-up
23.1% (3)
76.9% (10)
Yes
Yes
No
53.8% (14)
46.2% (12)
Yes
No
Data correct as of 2 December 2022
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