win
US Masters?
What does it take to
the
We’ve analysed the historical data to identify the patterns that point towards a Masters champion
A modest showing on the previous tour
1st - 10th
11th - 20th
21st - 30th
31st or lower
Unranked
Phil Mickelson (2010) Tiger Woods (2019)
Jordan Spieth (2015)
Bubba Watson (2012) Adam Scott (2013) Patrick Reed (2018)
Trevor Immelman (2008) Ángel Cabrera (2009)
Bubba Watson (2014) Sergio García (2017)
Charl Schwartzel (2011) Danny Willett (2016)
A sparse trophy cabinet
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Charl Schwartzel
Bubba Watson
Adam Scott
Bubba Watson
Jordan Spieth
Danny Willett
Sergio García
Patrick Reed
Tiger Woods
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
14
Experience rather than youth
Two thirds of the winners since 1990 were already in their thirties when the tournament began.
2
8
9
11
35 or over
30 to 34
Under 25
25 to 29
Driving accuracy
Greens in regulation
Putting average
Strong approach play
7 of the last 9 winners had never won a major championship before.
Over half of the last 20 winners ranked in the top 50 for Greens In Regulation on the previous season’s PGA Tour.
11
1
7
A late birthday
8 of the last 9 winners were born in the second half of the year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Charl Schwartzel
Bubba Watson
Adam Scott
Bubba Watson
Jordan Spieth
Danny Willett
Sergio García
Patrick Reed
Tiger Woods
August
November
July
November
July
October
August
December
January
A strong previous showing
Two thirds of the winners since 1990 had already finished in the top 10 at a Masters tournament before winning it.
Below 20th
11th to 20th
Winner
2nd to 10th
6
3
10
11
Home advantage
In the last four decades, the United States has provided more Masters champions than the rest of the world combined.
USA
Europe
Other
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
5
5
0
4
6
0
6
0
4
6
2
2
Who will be wearing the green jacket in 2020?
Among this year’s favourites, the following three golfers appear to have the best chance of winning the 2020 Masters based on a weighted average of the factors above:
Cantlay ticks nearly all of our data-derived boxes as an American who has never won a major but performed well in last year’s Masters. While he’s still in his late 20s, his respectable approach and putting statistics last season and improvements made on a decent FedEx Cup finish make him our top pick.
Patrick Cantlay
Jon Rahm
Spaniard Rahm’s relative youth and strong showing last season aren’t typical of a Masters champion, but otherwise the data is on his side. Successive top 10 finishes at the last two tournaments bode well, as does his high Greens In Regulation (GIR) percentage last season.
Xander Schauffele
Schauffele is also a bit on the young side and finished 2nd in last season’s FedEx Cup, which often jinxes a Masters. However he finished just one stroke behind last year’s champion Tiger Woods and he is the only favourite whose GIR was among the top 10 in last season’s tour.