Momentum will be disrupted
We’ve looked at the impact of winter breaks in the major European leagues over the last decade to predict what might happen in the Premier League this season
There have been 102 players in the last 10 seasons who have gone into a winter break with at least 10 league goals to their name and played at least 10 matches’ worth of minutes either side of the break...
Defeats
Hot streaks will cool down ...
-10%
-7%
0%
+48%
Teams who were top of the table going into a winter break suffered an average drop of 10% in the number of points they won per game...
…while those in the bottom three saw an improvement of almost 50%
Position going into break
Average points per game change
Top
Rest of top 4
Mid-table *
Bottom 3
* Clubs outside both the top four and bottom three
Roughly one in three teams on a run of at least five games either without a win or without a defeat will see that run end when the season resumes
There have been 11 clubs in the last 10 seasons who have entered a winter break with no defeats against their name:
Unbeaten runs are likely to end
6/11 went on to suffer 4 or more defeats after the break
Only one managed to maintain their unbeaten record
Leverkusen
Bayern
PSG
Roma
Hoffenheim
Juventus
Real Madrid
PSG
Bayern
Barcelona
Juventus
(2009-10)
(2014-15)
(2018-19)
(2013-14)
(2016-17)
(2018-19)
(2016-17)
(2015-16)
(2013-14)
(2017-18)
(2011-12)
0/17
0/17
0/17
0/17
0/16
0/19
0/15
0/19
0/16
0/17
0/16
5/17
5/17
5/21
5/21
4/18
4/19
3/23
2/19
2/18
1/21
0/22
Before break
After break
…on average their goalscoring rate has dropped by 22.3% after the season resumed
Here are the five biggest drop-offs:
Nenê
Theofanis Gekas
Stephan El Shaarawy
Nikola Kalinic
Gervinho
PSG, 2010-11
Frankfurt, 2010-11
Milan, 2012-13 Fiorentina, 2015-16
Lille, 2009-10
Goals scored per 90 minutes
13 goals in 1,570 mins
0.75
0.06
Before break
After break
1 goal in 1,519 mins
14 goals in 1,353 mins
2 goals in 1,386 mins
0.93
0.13
14 goals in 1,502 mins
2 goals in 1,320 mins
0.14
0.84
10 goals in 1,162 mins
2 goals in 1,406 mins
0.13
0.77
11 goals in 1,365 mins
2 goals in 1,098 mins
0.16
0.73
… and misfiring strikers should recover
There have been 61 players in the last 10 seasons who have scored at least 20 goals per season* but went into a winter break with fewer than 10 league goals to their name and played at least 10 matches’ worth of minutes either side of the break...
…on average their goalscoring rate has increased by 54.1% after the season resumed
Mario Gomez
Cristiano Ronaldo Andrej Kramaric
Antonio Di Natale
Andrej Kramaric
Stuttgart, 2017-18
Real Madrid, 2017-18
Hoffenheim, 2017-18
Udinese, 2013-14
Hoffenheim, 2016-17
Here are the five biggest improvements:
Goals scored per 90 minutes
1 goal in 937 mins
8 goals in 1,386 mins
4 goals in 1,065 mins
22 goals in 1,386 mins
Before break
After break
0.10
0.52
1.62
0.34
2 goals in 997 mins
11 goals in 1,231mins
0.80
0.18
3 goals in 1,083 mins
13 goals in 1,226 mins
0.95
0.25
3 goals in 1,122 mins
12 goals in 1,242 mins
0.87
0.24
* Based on the number of minutes in a 38-game season (3,420)
Liverpool’s front three should welcome this winter break
Most minutes played since the start of the 2017-18 season by Premier League players who featured at the 2018 World Cup and one of the international tournaments in the summer of 2019.
Wolves need a rest
Eight Premier League players have already clocked up at least 3,000 minutes in all competitions this season … and five of them play for Wolves.
Wolves
Liverpool
Man Utd
Leicester
Chelsea
Man City
Tottenham
Southampton
Everton
Burnley
Sheffield Utd
Arsenal
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Norwich
Watford
Brighton
West Ham
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
2,500-2,999
minutes
3,000+
minutes
2,000-2,499
minutes
Players with the most minutes played in all competitions this season
Minutes
Premier League
what effect will it have?
winter break:
Coady
Joao Moutinho
van Dijk
Rui Patricio
Robertson
Dendoncker
Maguire
Jimenez
Salah
Alexander-Arnold
Wolves
Wolves
Liverpool
Wolves
Liverpool
Wolves
Man Utd
Wolves
Liverpool
Liverpool
3,510
3,219
3,210
3,150
3,093
3,039
3,010
3,008
2,938
2,885
Players who have played:
/10
This isn’t the first
mid-season break in Premier League history
While this is the first formal break for the entire league, there have been plenty of accidental breaks for specific clubs over the years
QPR
Sheff Utd
Aston Villa
Middlesbrough
Newcastle
1993-94
1993-94
2006-07
1999-00
2015-16
5 Feb 1994
QPR 2
Man Utd 3
Here are the five longest gaps between competitive matches - including international fixtures -
in Premier League history:
5 Mar 1994
QPR 1
Man City 1
28
21
21
20
18
Last match before break
First match
after break
Break (days)
22 Jan 1994
Sheff Wed 3
Sheff Utd 1
12 Feb 1994
Sheff Utd 0
Coventry 0
10 Feb 2007
Reading 2
Aston Villa 0
3 Mar 2007
Fulham 1 Aston Villa 1
26 Dec 1999
Sheff Wed 1
Boro 0
15 Jan 2000 Boro 1
Derby 4
13 Feb 2016
Chelsea 5 Newcastle 1
2 Mar 2016
Stoke 1 Newcastle 0
All five clubs failed to win their first match after the break, so there’s clearly more to turning your season around than just having a rest
Mohamed Salah
Roberto Firmino
Sadio Mane
Nicolas Otamendi
Wilfred Ndidi
Willian
Davinson Sanchez
Alisson
Gabriel Jesus
Sergio Aguero
Liverpool
Liverpool
Liverpool
Man City
Leicester
Chelsea
Tottenham
Liverpool
Man City
Man City
12,433
11,874
11,519
10,968
10,314
10,224
10,210
9,098
9,080
8,851
Minutes played since start of 2017-18
First result after the break
34.8%
Won
Drawn
Lost
23.6%
41.6%
45.2%
21.5%
33.3%
Teams on a 5+ match winless run
Teams on a 5+ match unbeaten run
Which clubs have recruited the most EFL talent?
Percentage of signings made by current Premier League clubs on deadline day during the last 10 summer transfer windows
Everton
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Leicester
Bournemouth
Tottenham
Watford
Aston Villa
Burnley
Arsenal
Chelsea
West Ham
Southampton
Man City
Man Utd
Liverpool
Norwich
Wolves
Newcastle
Which clubs have been the
on
most
active
deadline
day?
23.0%
21.6%
20.8%
19.5%
17.2%
16.9%
16.3%
15.6%
13.6%
12.1%
10.4%
10.2%
9.8%
8.8%
6.6%
6.2%
5.3%
2.2%
1.7%
x15
Percentage of money spent by current Premier League clubs on deadline day during the last 10 summer transfer windows
31.4%
29.9%
25.2%
22.4%
19.8%
18.5%
18.0%
15.2%
13.8%
12.6%
11.1%
8.3%
6.6%
6.1%
4.5%
3.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.0%
Crystal Palace
Leicester
Tottenham
Everton
Aston Villa
Burnley
Arsenal
Chelsea
Southampton
Brighton
Man Utd
Liverpool
Watford
West Ham
Bournemouth
Man City
Newcastle
Wolves
Norwich
£50.9m
Which clubs have made the most money on deadline day?
Combined income from players sold on deadline day
Income £m
Players sold
Liverpool
Everton
Arsenal
Tottenham
Man City
Leicester
Chelsea
Man Utd
West Ham
Watford
10
£49.1m
6
£44.7m
4
£38.7m
8
£35.6m
8
£34.9m
3
£33.4m
3
£19.9m
3
£12.0m
6
£8.0m
3
Excludes transfers completed when clubs were
outside the Premier League
The later you join, the smaller your chances of being a first-team regular
Percentage of new signings who played at least 75% of Premier League minutes in their first season, after joining:
What is the
impact
of making
late signings?
22.3%
18.4%
13.2%
11.7%
On July 1st
During the rest of July
During August before deadline day
On deadline day
x16
… and of being an ever-present
14
6
0
On July 1st
During the rest of July
During August
There have been 20 summer signings who have gone on to play every single minute for their new club in the last decade … and none of them signed in August
x4
Does it matter when you sign players in different positions?
Defensive players signed late in the window have a better chance of becoming a first team regular … but it’s the other way around for attackers
66.7%
61.8%
43.8%
40.5%
28.3%
20.6%
45.7%
53.5%
41.2%
48.1%
36.2%
37.6%
Position
Final week
Earlier
+21.0%
+8.3%
+2.6%
-7.6%
-8.0%
Difference
Percentage of signings who played at least half of their new club’s Premier League minutes in their first season
Goalkeeper
Centre back
Full back
Central midfield
Winger
Forward
-17.1%
Excludes players who didn’t feature in the league during their first season
Forwards are particularly vulnerable to the perils of ‘panic buying’ - only around one in five signed in the final week of the summer window played at least half of the Premier League minutes available in their first season
Buying a proven Premier League player can make a big difference
Apart from wingers and goalkeepers, players signed in the final week of the summer transfer window are more likely to become an immediate first-team regular if they join from another Premier League club
Signings made in the last week of the window who played at least half of their new club’s Premier League minutes in their first season
69.2%
40.7%
68.0%
45.5%
66.7%
21.7%
Centre back
Forward
Full back
Central midfield
Goalkeeper
Winger
26.3%
7.3%
56.7%
36.6%
66.7%
34.8%
Position
Premier League
Other
+42.9%
+33.4%
+11.3%
+8.9%
0.0%
-13.0%
Difference
Excludes players who didn’t feature in the league during their first season
Bought from ...
Late moves can impact younger forwards
Those aged 26 or older have been almost twice as likely to record a double-digit goal tally in their first season after joining in the last week of the summer transfer window
5 to 9 goals
0 to 4 goals
25 or under
10+ goals
25.0%
37.5%
37.5%
26 or older
71.4%
14.3%
14.3%
