Andrea Auerbach
Global Head of Private Investments
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Sources: Bloomberg L.P., International Monetary Fund, National Sources, and Thomson Reuters Datastream.
Note: Numbers in parentheses reflect the 20-year annualized growth rate through the end of 2024.
China
Inflation
(2.2%)
0.8%
Growth
(7.8%)
4.4%
Eurozone
Growth Rate
0.6%
Inflation Rate
2.7%
Inflation
(2.1%)
1.8%
Growth
(1.1%)
1.1%
United Kingdom
Growth Rate
0.4%
Inflation
(2.8%)
2.5%
Growth
(1.3%)
1.1%
Inflation Rate
3.1%
Japan
Inflation
(0.7%)
1.8%
Growth
(0.5%)
0.7%
Canada
Inflation
(2.1%)
2.0%
Growth
(1.9%)
1.3%
United States
Inflation
(2.6%)
2.9%
Growth Rate
(2.1%)
1.9%
Brazil
Inflation
(5.6%)
4.2%
Growth
(2.1%)
1.7%
Australia
Inflation
(2.7%)
2.9%
Growth
(2.5%)
2.2%
India
Inflation
(6.6%)
4.1%
Growth
(6.7%)
6.5%
As of November 30, 2025 • Bloomberg consensus estimates for 2026
Expected rates of real economic growth and inflation in key markets
Drew Boyer
Senior Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research
Aaron Costello
Head of Asia
Celia Dallas
Chief Investment Strategist
Tiffany DiLiberto
Senior Editorial Project Manager, Capital Markets Research
Sean Duffin
Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Max English
Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Christina Fenton-Neblett
Senior Director, Capital Markets Research
Zach Gaucher
Senior Investment Director, Venture Capital
Simon Hallett
Head of
Climate Strategy
Justin Hopfer
Senior Investment Associate, Investment Strategy Office
Song Han
Managing Director, Compliance
Graham Landrith
Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Andres Marin
Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research
Brian McDonnell
Global Head of Retirement, Insurance & Government Practice
Marcelo Morales
Senior Director, Capital Markets Research
Wade O'Brien
Managing Director, Capital Markets Research
Thomas O'Mahony
Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Kristen Ouellet
Editorial Project Manager, Capital Markets Research
Kevin Rosenbaum
Head of Global Capital Markets Research
Mark Pepdjonovic
Managing Director, Private Client Practice
TJ Scavone
Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Mark Sintetos
Senior Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research
Caryn Slotsky
Managing Director, Private Investment Strategy Research
Theresa Sorrentino Hajer
Head of US Venture Capital Research
Our investment views are shaped by the expectation that global growth will be slightly below trend in 2026, consistent with the consensus forecast for global real GDP growth of 2.9%, compared to the ten-year average of 3.1%.
The likelihood of upside growth surprises is low, given a softening US labor market and the lagged effect of tariffs, while the risk of a sharp recession appears limited. We expect inflationary pressures to diverge across regions. In the United States, inflation will likely be temporarily elevated as tariffs push prices higher, especially as inventories are drawn down and firms pass on costs to consumers. Outside the United States, tariffs should dampen demand and moderate price pressures.
This divergence may constrain the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates as aggressively as markets expect, while giving other central banks greater flexibility to adjust policy.
Our economic outlook is anchored by several key drivers:
The global economic backdrop in 2026
Our 2026 views
Contributors
Click on each to learn more
Real assets
04
Sustainability &
impact investing
03
Private credit
06
Diversifier Views
05
Private Equity & Venture Capital Views
04
Public Equity
Views
03
Fixed Income Views
02
LEARN MORE
01
Watch the 2026 Outlook Webinar Replay
Missed our Investment Outlook Webinar? The replay is now available. In the webinar, our team examined the key themes from our 2026 Outlook—including artificial intelligence, central bank policies, energy demand, geopolitics, and labor market shifts—and shared our perspectives on which public and private asset classes are best positioned for the year ahead.
Click the button below to watch the replay and access valuable insights and actionable ideas for 2026.
WATCH THE WEBINAR REPLAY
Aaron Costello
Head of Asia
Andrea Auerbach
Global Head of Private Investments
Tiffany DiLiberto
Senior Editorial Project Manager, Capital Markets Research
Celia Dallas
Chief Investment Strategist
Drew Boyer
Senior Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research
Contributors
Sean Duffin
Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Max English
Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Christina Fenton-Neblett
Senior Director, Capital Markets Research
Zach Gaucher
Senior Investment Director, Venture Capital
Justin Hopfer
Senior Investment Associate, Investment Strategy Office
Song Han
Managing Director, Compliance
Graham Landrith
Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Andres Marin
Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research
Simon Hallett
Head of
Climate Strategy
Brian McDonnell
Global Head of Retirement, Insurance & Government Practice
Marcelo Morales
Senior Director, Capital Markets Research
Wade O'Brien
Managing Director, Capital Markets Research
Thomas O'Mahony
Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Kristen Ouellet
Editorial Project Manager, Capital Markets Research
Kevin Rosenbaum
Head of Global Capital Markets Research
TJ Scavone
Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Research
Mark Sintetos
Senior Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research
Caryn Slotsky
Managing Director, Private Investment Strategy Research
Mark Pepdjonovic
Managing Director, Private Client Practice
Key risks to our outlook include a meaningful deterioration in the US labor market—though this appears unlikely—AI enthusiasm fading, and potential reductions in US tariff rates resulting from US Supreme Court decisions.
First, easing global financial conditions and reduced tariff uncertainty should support consumer and business activity worldwide.
Second, increased investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, along with moderate fiscal stimulus in the United States, euro area, and potentially China, should further bolster growth.
Third, offsetting these positives, a weaker US labor market, slowing economic momentum in China, and the fading boost from tariff front-running are likely to limit upside surprises.
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Australia
Inflation Rate
(2.7%)
2.8%
Growth Rate
(2.5%)
2.0%
Japan
Inflation Rate
(0.6%)
2.0%
Growth Rate
(0.6%)
1.2%
India
Inflation Rate
(6.4%)
4.7%
Growth Rate
(6.5%)
6.8%
China
Inflation Rate
(2.4%)
1.1%
Growth Rate
(8.0%)
4.5%
Eurozone
Inflation Rate
(2.1%)
2.0%
Growth Rate
(1.2%)
1.2%
United Kingdom
Growth Rate
0.4%
Inflation Rate
(2.8%)
2.4%
Growth Rate
(1.3%)
1.4%
Inflation Rate
3.1%
Brazil
Inflation Rate
(5.7%)
4.0%
Growth Rate
(2.2%)
2.0%
United States
Inflation Rate
(2.6%)
2.4%
Growth Rate
(2.1%)
2.1%
Canada
Inflation Rate
(2.2%)
2.0%
Growth Rate
(1.9%)
1.8%
Theresa Sorrentino Hajer
Head of US Venture Capital Research
Portfolio-Wide Views