Carter Jonas continually monitors the planning and development landscape across local authorities to locate and manage opportunities. This quarterly news bulletin provides insight and analysis of the current development climate for clusters of local authorities within the home counties. This quarter we look at East Berkshire and Buckinghamshire.
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The second instalment of the Government’s Housing Delivery Test (HDT) was published in February, confirming that all authorities - except Slough – met the test. Slough will incur a 20% buffer to its housing targets until need is met.
APRIL 2020
HOME COUNTIES
HOUSING & LOCAL
PLAN UPDATE
East Berkshire and
Buckinghamshire
Local Plan position & 5-year housing supply
Housing Delivery Test data
Development drivers
Critical calendar dates
Seven local authorities within the East Berkshire and Buckinghamshire area
This map illustrates local authorities individual Local Plan positions and their 5-year housing supply
Aylesbury Vale*
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Wokingham
Bracknell Forest
Windsor & Maidenhead
Slough
Chiltern & South Bucks*
Wycombe*
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WY
C&SB
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WO
Housing Delivery Test 2019
However, due to the transitional arrangements currently in place for the HDT, the November 2020 results will be the first year where the standard methodology for calculating local housing need will fully impact the HDT results. The below table compares how the next instalment of the HDT test may look if existing delivery rates are maintained.
Housing delivery requirements vs delivery
The requirement to deliver enough housing to meet Local Housing Need figures will place authorities, who are currently delivering at lower rates, under pressure. Should delivery rates fail to keep up or fall from existing levels, authorities will be required to identify additional 20% buffers to five-year supplies, and/or produce action plans to address poor delivery. This has the potential to create additional opportunities, either through the identification of new sites, or the need to densify existing development sites.
View 2020 estimates
View 2019 HDT
Future housing distribution in Buckinghamshire
Aylesbury Vale has emerged as the focal point for meeting the needs of Buckinghamshire, driven by its low proportion of Green Belt and compounded by lateral pressure to the east from Milton Keynes (outlined in its recent 2050 Growth Strategy). The emerging Local Plan plans to deliver 28,600 dwellings above its assessed need, taking on unmet need from Chiltern & South Bucks and Wycombe. Further increases to Aylesbury Vale’s need was established at the postponed 2018 examination, based on its strategic location in the Oxford-Cambridge Arc, leading to the authority seeking to identify additional delivery options.
The emerging Aylesbury Vale plan contains no specific policy for an early review, but we predict that if these patterns continue, one is likely, particularly as a result of the new Buckinghamshire Unitary Authority. The planning operation of such a unitary authority is yet to be finalised but any joint approach is likely to focus growth in Aylesbury Vale for years to come.
Much of the land within the monitored authorities is constrained by Metropolitan Green Belt and the Chiltern Hills AONB (area of outstanding beauty) designations. This has led to the need for strategic and site-specific assessments (completed or underway) of the Green Belt and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty in both Buckinghamshire and East Berkshire, in turn, resulting in the identification of site allocations within these locations.
Designated land increased allocations
The purple line illustrates where Slough has proposed a ‘northern extension’ to the metropolitan area – entirely on Green Belt land and within the boundaries of South Bucks. The potential and strategic importance of this area was highlighted in a June 2019 Growth Study.
Emerging shortfall in Slough
Wokingham finds itself in the unique position of possessing an identified Local Housing Need below recent average housing delivery rates. Despite this strong delivery, amongst the highest in the South East, the requirement to adopt a new, higher, housing target, (from the adopted Local Plan) is a contentious issue for the Council to address. A Summer 2018 public consultation indicated that 94% of resident responses supported a reduced target from that set by Government.
An alternative strategy in Wokingham
The uncertainty of the northern extension, and the unmet need it is proposed to accommodate, could threaten the progression of emerging Local Plans. If it is accepted that Chiltern & South Bucks and Windsor & Maidenhead are unable to take on Slough’s demand, this is likely to result in higher densities and further sites being considered within Slough itself. If unmet need remains, this could have knock on effects for Slough and the authorities in the form of early reviews, imposed increases to housing targets, or plans being found unsound by an inspector.
Consequently, Wokingham recently set out in its preferred options consultation with an intention to progress a housing target below that set by the standard methodology, looking to justify this on the basis of recent housing ‘over delivery’ resulting in an uplift in median house prices, together representing ‘exceptional circumstances’. If maintained, this would be stringently tested at examination and would be the first local authority seeking to justify such exceptional circumstances.
Development drivers
Heathrow
Public consultation ran from 18 June – 13 September 2019 on the proposed plans for the third runway. Plans included the demolition of 800 homes, many within Slough, and runway completion by 2026 with all phases completed by 2050.
Slough has raised objections with regards to the loss of homes and effect on the environment. Windsor & Maidenhead will also be impacted through noise and air pollution.
On the 27 February, The Court of Appeal ruled the proposed 3rd runway
at Heathrow as unlawful due to the lack of consideration of Government policy in relation to climate change, as secured as part of The Paris Agreement (2016).
The full opening of Crossrail within central sections has been delayed until Summer 2021, with links to Heathrow expected to be completed by 2022.
The Reading to Paddington branch of Crossrail officially opened in December 2019, serving train stations in Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead.
Crossrail
The government confirmed that it would go ahead with the project following a viability review.
The HS2 route will travel directly through Aylesbury Vale, Chiltern, Wycombe and South Buckingham.
HS2
In January 2020, the Government announced its preferred route for the central section of the new East West Rail from Bedford to Cambridge.
The Oxford-Cambridge Arc will directly affect northern parts of Buckinghamshire, particularly Aylesbury Vale. The National Infrastructure Commission’s (NIC) aspiration is for one million homes in the arc by 2020.
Oxford-Cambridge Arc
On 26 February 2020, the NIC called upon the Government to make 2020 a ‘year of action’ in finalising the details of the arc, including developing a spatial vision and places for new settlements, establishing ministerial ownership and clarification of the route taken by the Oxford-Cambridge expressway.
Critical calendar dates
Contact francis
contact francis
Contact the key contributors to this research:
EMAIL francis
0207 518 3297
Partner
Francis Truss
Planning Appendix
These stages of the Local Plan explore different policy options, including the production of, and public consultation on, supporting evidence documents. The most common stages are listed below, although all will not necessarily occur or in the listed order:
• Evidence gathering • Issues and options
• Preferred options • Draft policies
Regulation 18
This stage of the Local Plan represents the final collection of policies, fully supported by an evidence base, that the Council consider is legally and policy compliant. It is the final stage of public consultation prior to submission of a Plan for Examination.
Regulation 19
These stages involve the assessment of a submitted plan by appointed planning inspector(s). The plan is examined on various subjects through hearing sessions, sometimes resulting in further consultation and/or modifications to the plan. Once the inspector(s) is content with a plan, they will issue their final report on whether the plan is sound and legally compliant. The Inspector can also choose to reject the plan. This is a lengthy process and can typically take 8-24 months.
Examination in public (EiP)
Following receipt of the inspector’s final report and the conclusion that a plan is viable, the council can then choose to adopt the plan to make it part of the local development framework (LDF).
Adoption
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Wokingham
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Bracknell Forest
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Windsor & Maidenhead
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Slough
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Chiltern & South Bucks*
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Wycombe*
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Aylesbury Vale*
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*Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 these provisional dates are subject to change.
hover to explore the links
will combine to
make one singular
authorities within Buckinghamshire
Key change
Four individual
Buckinghamshire Unitary Authority
unlocking development potential
Beauty remains the optimum route to
and Areas of Outstanding Natural
Promotion of sites within the Green Belt
Glossary
South Bucks rejected this option in its joint Local Plan. Windsor & Maidenhead indicated that it is unable to accommodate Slough’s unmet need (October 2019 Housing Topic Paper) and supported the northern extension. Slough has no current agreements with other surrounding authorities to accommodate its overspill but has, with Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead and Chiltern & South Bucks commenced a study to determine where future growth should be accommodated. The first part of the assessment has identified indicative areas of search that encapsulates the northern extension area and beyond.
The area within the red boundary illustrates the most suitable location to
fulfil Slough's housing requirements, as recommended by the growth study commissioned by Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead, Slough and Chiltern
& South Bucks.
Hover over to
see the proposed Northern extension
The red boundary illustrates the most suitable location for Slough’s housing requirements
Proposed Northern extension
Most suitable location for Slough’s housing requirement
EMAIL DAVID
07866 794560
Partner, Planning
David Churchill
EMAIL FRANCIS
07787 282092
Partner, Strategic Land
Francis Truss
Our regional planning experts work out of five hubs, providing a truly national service for their clients:
EMAIL NICK
07584 681596
London
Nick Taylor
EMAIL EMMA
North
Emma Winter
EMAIL STEVEN
07970 796762
South and South West
Steven Sensecall
EMAIL COLIN
07771 924426
East
Colin Brown
07973 505576
EMAIL ROBERT
07771 898954
National Strategic Land
Robert Smith
EMAIL JOHNNY
07557 428136
National Masterplanning
Johnny Clayton
Our national service specialists:
Buckinghamshire Unitary Authority
will combine to
make one singular
authorities within Buckinghamshire
Key change
Four individual
*Aylesbury Vale, Wycombe and Chiltern & South Bucks have now combined to create the Buckinghamshire Unitary Authority. The Authority has published a position statement that, for the time being, each area will continue to measure its own respective five year housing land supply, but we expect this to change in time.
For more information, click here
The below research is a snippet from the full published piece. To read the full content, view this link on a desktop. If you wish to discuss the current position of any Local Plan, please speak to one of our professionals.
Housing Delivery Test 2019 (2016/17 – 2018/19)
Estimated Housing Delivery Test 2020 (2017/18 – 2019/20) 2018/19)