As of May 2023, international arrivals to key markets in Asia Pacific stood at ~71% of 2019 levels (ex. mainland China). Growth in tracked international arrivals in H1 2023 has been led by Japan and Hong Kong SAR.
For Asia Pacific, the International Air Transport Association is now forecasting available seat kilometres* for international travel to reach 84% of 2019 levels by year’s end and a full recovery by the end of 2024.
Mid-year review
Monthly international arrivals are currently at just 20% of the levels that were registered in 2019, indicating substantial room for improvement in the hotels and hospitality sector this year and beyond with a full recovery expected in 2024.
Forecast made in January 2023
Steady Growth in International Arrivals
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Mainland Chinese travellers have demonstrated a cautious approach to international travel, with outbound travel in H1 2023 being muted compared to initial expectations. Mainland Chinese arrivals in Asia Pacific for May 2023 y-t-d were just 29% of May 2019 y-t-d levels. Outbound activity from mainland China has favoured Hong Kong SAR and Southeast Asian markets (Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore), but inbound activity in Korea and Japan is now growing despite ongoing visa restrictions.
Mid-year review
Mainland Chinese tourists will boost the regional hotel and hospitality sector following their country’s re-opening in January. However, the recovery will be gradual and dependent upon the availability and cost of air travel. Japan, Korea and Hong Kong SAR will be the main beneficiaries of this trend.
Forecast made in January 2023
Mainland Chinese Tourists to Return
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Overall RevPAR in Asia Pacific grew by 56% in H1 2023 y-t-d vs H1 2022 y-t-d, However, this is still 8% lower than H1 2019. The recovery in H1 2023 has been propped up by the re-opening of key markets in mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and Japan.
ADRs are expected to remain stable for the rest of 2023, while growth in occupancy will drive moderate RevPAR increases in Asia Pacific throughout the rest of the year.
Mid-year review
Many markets are now recording Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) levels above what was seen in 2019. The return of mainland Chinese tourists and the expected prolonging of revenge tourism should see the hotels and hospitality market show modest growth in 2023, before returning to pre-pandemic levels in early 2024.
Forecast made in January 2023
Hotel performance
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