Global Energy Perspective 2019
The Global Energy Perspective Reference Case provides our view on how the energy transition will unfold.
A changing landscape
Energy systems around the world are going through rapid transitions that affect many aspects of our lives. The continuation and acceleration of these shifts will bring important changes to the way we fuel our cars, heat our homes, and power our industries in the coming decades. Our Reference Case provides our consensus view on how energy demand will evolve.
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Global primary energy demand plateaus around 2030 after more than a century of rapid growth, primarily driven by the penetration of renewable sources in the energy mix.
Energy demand expected to plateau around 2030
Despite a growing population with rising incomes, declines in energy intensity driven by a switch to service industries offset increasing energy demand.
… and also changing energy-use patterns.
Buildings
Industry
Road Transport
Road Transport
Industry
Buildings
Global energy-related emissions will peak in 2024 and decline by around 20% by 2050, mostly driven by the decline of coal usage in the power sector.
What are the implications for emissions?
2024
–22%
This downward trajectory, however, is still far off from a 2-degree pathway*
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Gas continues to grow until 2035, when it plateaus and then declines. Meanwhile, oil and coal demand growth is expected to slow down, with oil peaking in the early 2030s.
What does this mean for gas, oil, and coal?
Gas
Oil
Coal
China’s gas demand growth is greater than that of the next 10 largest growth countries, including the US, and represents nearly half of demand growth through 2035.
Even in a scenario with lower oil prices, cost parity for electric trucks would only be delayed by a few years. Coal demand is set to fall by 40% by 2050, primarily driven by a reduction in the Chinese power sector.
Electric vehicle sales are expected to exceed
by 2035, causing oil demand in road transport to decline
100 million
By 2050, there could be more than
electric vehicles on the road across all segments
2 billion
The number of electric passenger car sales is expected to grow by more than
from 2018 to 2050
a factor of 60
Buildings-related electricity demand is expected to increase
from 2016-2050 as a result of increased use of space cooling and appliances driven by higher living standards in non-OECD countries
80–85%
Increased use of space cooling and appliances both contribute about
to total electricity demand growth for buildings
40%
of the increase for appliances comes from Africa’s growing middle class
One third
In China, steel production falls by
but the total energy consumption for steel production halves due to the uptake of more efficient blast and arc furnaces
25%
*Scenario that leads to 2-degree Celsius warming or less
2016
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Post 2035, more than
of power generation will be renewable
50%
Wind and solar accounted for more than half of new power generation capacity additions in recent years. Renewables will continue to penetrate the global energy mix with solar and wind generation expected to increase by a factor of 60 and 13, respectively, from 2015 to 2050.
Why? Primarily a shift to renewables …