Six assumptions for measuring health disruption
The future of health is further along than some might think.
The customer will be at the center of a health care
system that’s shifting from responding to illness and
toward sustaining well-being. That’s the conclusion of Forces of Change, our latest report, in which we predict
the fundamental changes to health care by 2040.
Even though 2040 is 21 years away, these forces are already in motion. By understanding these changes and identifying key metrics, you can confidently make the strategic choices you need to keep pace with inevitable change.
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OUR STARTING POINT: HOW WE’LL GET THERE
Our vision for the future of health—and how we’ll measure its progress—is driven by six key assumptions over three distinct periods: initiation, proliferation, and transformation.
Explore the six key assumptions by selecting from the list below.
- Data Sharing
- Interoperable data
- Access
- Empowered consumer
- Behavior change
- Scientific breakthrough
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DATA-SHARING
When data transparency becomes standard practice, consumer trust and willingness to share data will increase. Financial incentives will be used to ensure institutions and individuals participate in data-sharing.
- 1-7 years
- Data-sharing is already happening. New technologies will allow consumers to further share their data across the industry.
- Initiation: 46% of consumers are willing to share their medical information with their health care provider.
- 7-14 years
- As the industry matures, providers will be better equipped to safely pull insights out of the new wealth of information. New business models will encourage stakeholders to participate in data-sharing.
- Proliferation: 65-70% of consumers will use data and tools to link and share their health data with various stakeholders.
- 14-21 years
- Personal and population-based data sets will be readily available, and data ownership and usage rules will be more transparent.
- Transformation: Almost 100% of consumers will use data tools to share their health data with multiple stakeholders.
- Sources: Deloitte health care consumer survey, 2018.
- Note: Measures under proliferation and transformation reflect Deloitte assumptions about the pace of change and are intended as illustrative
- Initial evidence
- Evidence toward progress::Consumers of Apple Health app can link their data on claims and utilization, wellness, genomic, and behavioral patterns from several different sources to understand and improve their well-being.
INTEROPERABLE DATA
Data architecture will transform radically and enable deep, actionable analysis in real time. Aggregated data sets will provide a holistic view of the consumer and enable advanced analytics to generate novel insights in real time.
- 1-7 years
- Interoperable data is becoming a key focus of traditional health care players. New data-focused players will enter the market to fill data gaps and blend new data with traditional data sources.
- Initiation: 76% of life sciences and health care organizations possess capabilities for data exchange/interoperability with external sources.
- 7-14 years
- At this point, data will start to seamlessly move through the health care ecosystem. Advanced analytics will allow for actionable real-time insights for consumers.
- Proliferation: Almost all health care organizations will possess and share consumer health data.
- 14-21 years
- Health data will be a part of consumers’ life. Through proactive decisions based on data-driven insights, many consumers will avoid catastrophic costs to treat conditions.
- Transformation: Almost all health care organizations will have consumer data beyond just health data, and the incentives to keep it accurate.
- Sources: Deloitte health care consumer survey, 2019.
- Note: Measures under proliferation and transformation reflect Deloitte assumptions about the pace of change and are intended as illustrative
- Initial evidence
- Evidence toward progress:HHS (CMS,ONC) has proposed regulations toward greater interoperability. The proposed rules focus on seamless flow of health information across health care stakeholders to foster better care and innovation.
ACCESS
Thanks to a radically transformed health system, traditional barriers to health care access, such as geography and lack of resources, will decline significantly. Socioeconomics will not dictate access as health improves and health care becomes more affordable.
- 1-7 years
- Increasing access will rely on data-sharing and interoperable data radically changing in the next 5-7 years. Retail clinics and telemedicine will continue an upwards trend.
- Initiation: 35% of consumers are interested in engaging with a virtual assistant to identify symptoms and direct them to a physician.
- 7-14 years
- Access to data and tools that inform consumers of their health will rapidly take off. Services will become much more convenient as utilization decreases due to a healthier, more knowledgeable population.
- Proliferation: 60-65% of consumers will engage virtually for their care and well-being needs.
- 14-21 years
- Smart health communities will be integrated into our daily lives, allowing for more preventive and personalized health. Access to medical professionals only in centralized clinics or hospitals will be a thing of the past.
- Transformation: Close to 100% of consumers will participate in smart health communities—both virtual and physical.
- Sources: Deloitte health care consumer survey , 2019; AHRQ National Healthcare Quality and Disparities Report, 2017
- Note: Measures under proliferation and transformation reflect Deloitte assumptions about the pace of change and are intended as illustrative
- Initial evidence
- Evidence toward progress:Walgreens is partnering with regional health systems to expand its retail clinic network. In addition, its partnerships for diagnostics (Labcorp) and urgent care (MedExpress) are helping it create a network of affordable alternative sites of care.
EMPOWERED CONSUMER
Consumers are no longer passive participants in the health care system. They’re driving the pace of change by demanding transparency, convenience, and access. What’s more, they’re requiring the market to respond with a patient-centric approach that benefits all consumers.
- 1-7 years
- Consumers will still largely rely on engaging with health plans and providers to receive care. Transparency of health care data will begin to shift as pressures ramp up from regulators and consumers.
- Initiation: 55% of patients are likely to use digital tools that show health plan costs before using that service.
- 7-14 years
- Data and technology will enable consumers to address many routine health issues at home. The consumer will decide when to engage with a health plan or provider.
- Proliferation: 70-75 of patients are likely to use digital tools to find convenient, reasonably priced care.
- 14-21 years
- Individuals will have physical, social, mental, and emotional and spiritual health information on demand. Organizations will need to shift business models to align with consumers now having the power of choice.
- Transformation: Almost 100% of patients are likely to use digital tools that show health plan costs before using a service.
- Sources: Deloitte health care consumer survey , 2019; Gallup-Sharecare US well-being index, 2018
- Note: Measures under proliferation and transformation reflect Deloitte assumptions about the pace of change and are intended as illustrative
- Initial evidence
- Evidence toward progress: Digital health care startup Iora Health provides a personalized care team for every patient. Health coaches keep patients on track for no extra fee, resulting in a 40% decrease in hospitalizations -- and Iora doubling its customer base in three years.
- Source: Harvard Business Review, July-August 2018
BEHAVIOR CHANGE
Consumers are already beginning to use technology to manage their health and change their behaviors. This is why, by 2040, the focus will shift from treatment to well-being.
- 1-7 years
- As organizations continue to adopt new technologies, individuals will start to own technology that directly benefits their health.
- Initiation: 16% of the population identify as trailblazers: tech-savvy, using their data to modify behavior.
- 7-14 years
- Continuous monitoring will enable personalized AI and create behavioral “nudges” that drive adherence and improve overall well-being.
- Proliferation: 35% of the population will identify as trailblazers and be willing to share data to improve their well-being. Steady decline in chronic conditions.
- 14-21 years
- Consumer-driven preventative actions will protect against disease, diminishing its presence and shifting health care focus toward mental health and day-to-day well-being.
- Transformation: Close to 90 percent of consumers will adopt customized nutrition plans based on their biological makeup. Significant reduction in chronic conditions.
- Sources: Deloitte health care consumer survey , 2019; Chronic disease management survey, West corporation, 2017
- Note: Measures under proliferation and transformation reflect Deloitte assumptions about the pace of change and are intended as illustrative
- Initial evidence
- Evidence toward progress:People with chronic conditions are engaging with Livongo’s smart, connected devices, personalized digital guidance, and 24x7 access to health professionals to stay healthy.
SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGH
Cell and gene therapy drugs are gaining ground, and by 2040, personalized—and affordable—medicine will be available. Scientific breakthroughs like stem cells, nanobots, and biome sensors will occur at an exponential pace.
- 1-7 years
- Pre-diagnosis for diseases such as diabetes and heart disease will allow patients to adopt lifestyle changes to prevent onset and further progression.
- Initiation: 51% of consumers have used an at-home test to diagnose infection before going to the doctor.
- 7-14 years
- Cell and gene therapies will be used to repair missing or non-existing genes. These interventions will eliminate the need for ongoing treatments.
- Proliferation: By 2030, ? of all gene therapies will be used to repair missing or non-existing genes, eliminating the need for ongoing treatments.
- 14-21 years
- Medicine will be personalized and tailored to the genetic makeup and lifestyle of each patient—all at an affordable cost.
- Transformation: The prevalence of disease will be minimal, as almost all diseases will have a cure. Cell and gene therapies become affordable.
- Sources: Deloitte health care consumer survey , 2019; statement on new policies to advance development of safe and effective cell and gene therapies, FDA, 2019
- Note: Measures under proliferation and transformation periods are aspirational, and are likely indicators of progress toward the Future of Health
- Initial evidence
- Evidence toward progress: Immortagen is a cancer diagnostics company that combines proprietary tumor processing with artificial intelligence to identify true driver mutations in each patient’s tumor.
PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF HEALTH
Preparing for the Future of Health
Those organizations that are hesitant to transform their business model may be left behind by the inevitable changes the health care industry will bring. Here’s what they should consider:
- Build new businesses
- Health organizations should adjust their business models to reflect the decline of major chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and COPD.
- Forge partnerships
- Organizations new to the health care landscape are incentivized to drive change. What they lack is health care and regulatory expertise, a targeted consumer base, and partnerships with other incumbents. As such, it would be beneficial to partner with incumbents that are seen as driving innovation.
- Appeal to the empowered consumer
- To earn trust and demonstrate value, stakeholders should develop tactics to engage with the newly empowered consumers. Things like interoperable data, machine and deep learning capabilities, always-on biosensors, and behavioral research can create the insights that build personal empowerment.
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