Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.

Capital Markets

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The Federated Hermes Inflation Dashboard is a snapshot of US inflation. The dashboard’s indicators work together to create a more comprehensive picture of inflation’s trajectory along with comparisons to previous time periods.

Inflation dashboard

ADDITIONAL RESOURCE

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A scenario-focused look at what’s moving markets.

third QUARTER 2025

Quarterly Update

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Featuring our latest forecasts and key capital markets trends.

October 2025

Monthly Update

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Stay ahead of rapidly changing markets with the latest research and commentary from Federated Hermes. Our Insights page provides thoughtfully crafted analysis designed to inform confident investment decisions.

Insightful perspectives and forward-looking market analysis

Timely market analysis

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A scenario-focused look at what’s moving markets.

Fourth QUARTER 2025

Quarterly Update

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Featuring our latest forecasts and key capital markets trends.

March 2026

Monthly Update

Gas prices have jumped higher since the beginning of the war in Iran, from about $3.00 per gallon in the US to roughly $3.60 now. This event has implications for the “K-shaped” economy. The less well-off will be especially hard hit by the new prices at the pump, as gas is an essential expense that cuts into already-stretched budgets. The more affluent are better positioned to absorb these price hikes, but they may be spooked by a negative wealth effect if equity indexes move lower. The elevated price of oil appears to tie the Federal Reserve’s hands at a time when the labor market looks vulnerable, with February’s labor report showing an economy shedding jobs. Meantime, the inflation rate was already far enough above the central bank’s 2% target to keep hawks from supporting further cuts in the near term. Extended severe oil price shocks can induce recessions, as was seen in 1973, 1979, and 2008. However, the brief upward shock in the oil price to $123 in 2022 did not set off a recession. Futures markets expect oil prices to head back down from current levels to roughly $70 per barrel over the next year.

MARCH 16, 2026

Filling up has gotten much more painful.

No laughing gas

Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.

Capital Markets

US consumer debt continues to climb

Our outlook: Should oil prices begin to moderate, a scenario of continued economic growth could see equity prices rebound higher. A scenario where oil prices remain elevated and the economy slows (stagflation) could be challenging for equities, though real assets might thrive. A rapidly growing (and inflationary) economy might see growth stocks return to the fore. One potential casualty from sticker shock at the pump is the consumer discretionary sector. Other sectors that could suffer from higher oil prices are industrials (due to increased transportation and manufacturing costs) and materials (because oil is an input in making chemicals, plastics, and other goods). By contrast, defensive sectors, particularly energy, might prosper if the current environment continues. For more on our scenario-led outlooks read our monthly and quarterly Capital Markets publications.