Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.

Capital Markets

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The Federated Hermes Inflation Dashboard is a snapshot of US inflation. The dashboard’s indicators work together to create a more comprehensive picture of inflation’s trajectory along with comparisons to previous time periods.

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ADDITIONAL RESOURCE

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A scenario-focused look at what’s moving markets.

third QUARTER 2025

Quarterly Update

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Featuring our latest forecasts and key capital markets trends.

October 2025

Monthly Update

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Stay ahead of rapidly changing markets with the latest research and commentary from Federated Hermes. Our Insights page provides thoughtfully crafted analysis designed to inform confident investment decisions.

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Timely market analysis

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A scenario-focused look at what’s moving markets.

Fourth QUARTER 2025

Quarterly Update

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Featuring our latest forecasts and key capital markets trends.

FEBRuary 2026

Monthly Update

If 30-year rates continue to fall below 6%, we may see further movement in the housing market. Refinancing could pick up, which might in itself unleash fresh economic activity, as borrowers start to save money on their monthly payments. Importantly, lower rates could also finally break the “lock-in” effect by which potential sellers decline to list their houses because their next mortgage would be at too high a rate. True, existing home sales remain a notable weak spot, with January’s reading falling to the lowest level since September 2024. Here, affordability has been hampered by high demand and a low supply of homes. Equally, the unusually cold winter could also have played a part in January’s soft number. All in, it’s encouraging that affordability — which has been at historic lows — seems to be on the up and is now at its best level in nearly four years. Even so, this is the barest of beginnings. Spring is (almost) in the air but the housing thaw may still take some time to arrive. Our outlook: In recent years, the Magnificent Seven carried much of the economy, but that driver seems less certain. By contrast, nothing is more “old economy” than a house. Fortunately, the multiplier effect for real estate means that getting housing on track again can be a powerful stimulus for growth elsewhere in the economy. A scenario where housing returns to growth would be supportive of the labor market, with benefits for consumption, manufacturing, and construction. Cyclical sectors such as Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary would tend to prosper. In a scenario where housing fails to strengthen, however, other sectors might need to pick up the burden for the economy to stay strong. For more on our scenario-led outlooks read our monthly and quarterly Capital Markets publications.

For the past three years, US housing has been in the doldrums. The median sales price of US homes fell from a peak of $442,600 in December 2002 to a low of $405,300 in December 2025. Until last week, 30-year mortgage rates remained stubbornly above the psychologically important 6% threshold. But could this be about to change? Falling 10-year yields, benign inflation reports, and the prospect of further cuts from the Federal Reserve have sparked lower mortgage rates — and median home prices are now also drifting lower, falling more than 8% over the past three years. (True, the Case-Shiller national home price index has continued to rise over that time on a nominal basis, but in real terms it peaked in 2022.)