Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.
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Within the US, sectors have performed in a disparate manner too. Energy has risen, while other sectors have fared less well.
The war in Iran is having a differentiated result so far. Larger impacts have been felt on the equity markets of Asia and Europe, while the broad US market has been little changed. Performance in Europe, Japan, and Korea has been particularly affected so far in March.
The prime reason for this disparity has to do with energy (in)dependence: whereas the US is a net exporter of energy, Europe and Asia are importers. (See Does conflict in Iran change the international investment narrative?)
Europe, Japan, and Korea have seen natural gas prices spike since the onset of fighting. The US saw a weather-related jump in prices this January, but its natural gas prices have not been markedly changed by the war.
MARCH 9, 2026
International markets have suffered worse than the US.
Market effects of the Iran war have varied by region
Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.
Capital Markets
S&P 500 sector returns
US consumer debt continues to climb
Our outlook:
Energy prices are important inputs, but they are well known to be volatile and are accordingly excluded from core measures of inflation. In a scenario where fighting ends relatively soon and damage to facilities is limited, we are more likely to see a quick return to the status quo. The economy is growing and that will likely continue. This could be constructive for international equities, which had been outperforming the US until this month.
If, however, fighting drags on, we could see the inflationary effects of a war in the Persian Gulf take on a larger role. The economic expansion could then be dampened by central bankers’ efforts to curb inflation.
A bearish scenario for the economy would be an energy price increase large enough to prompt a recession. (Recall that before the 2008 crash, oil soared to $147, a price which even today remains the record high.) It seems likely, therefore, that the Trump administration would regard a severe increase in the oil price as itself a signal to seek some form of a cease fire.
For more on our scenario-led outlooks read our monthly and quarterly Capital Markets publications.
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