Our latest views on data, trends and events influencing the markets.

Capital Markets

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The Federated Hermes Inflation Dashboard is a snapshot of US inflation. The dashboard’s indicators work together to create a more comprehensive picture of inflation’s trajectory along with comparisons to previous time periods.

Inflation dashboard

ADDITIONAL RESOURCE

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A scenario-focused look at what’s moving markets.

third QUARTER 2025

Quarterly Update

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Featuring our latest forecasts and key capital markets trends.

October 2025

Monthly Update

view dashboard

The Federated Hermes Inflation Dashboard is a snapshot of US inflation. The dashboard’s indicators work together to create a more comprehensive picture of inflation’s trajectory along with comparisons to previous time periods.

Inflation dashboard

ADDITIONAL RESOURCE

DOWNLOAD PDF

A scenario-focused look at what’s moving markets.

third QUARTER 2025

Quarterly Update

DOWNLOAD PDF

Featuring our latest forecasts and key capital markets trends.

November 2025

Monthly Update

We’re bullish on consumers’ inclination to shop, provided they have jobs. The Federal Reserve’s current round of rate cuts appears to be designed to ensure that recent stagnation on the jobs front doesn’t develop into something worse. Interestingly, the Consumer Discretionary sector has dramatically underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, suggesting that strong holiday sales are not yet priced in. How is the consumer buying? More than half of online shopping revenue will be via mobile phones. Generative AI is increasingly involved in shaping the buying decision. Retail consultants point to one benefit of AI: gifts purchased with its help are less likely to be returned! For more on our scenario-led outlooks read our monthly and quarterly Capital Markets publications. Our outlook: Consumer Discretionary is very much a cyclical sector: if the economy is solid and jobs are available, consumers shop. (And if not, not.) Expectations for a record holiday shopping season serve to indicate that the economy is expanding. Our moderate growth scenario calls for the US economy to continue strengthening, thanks to tailwinds such as the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and we think it remains the most likely of our three scenarios. Of course, while it’s not our base case, if the labor market were to rapidly deteriorate, Consumer Staples would tend to outperform Consumer Discretionary.

Source: Adobe Analytics *2025 is a forecast estimate (As of 12/1/2025)

This year’s back-to-school shopping season in July and August was robust. That’s good news for investors wondering what to expect in their Christmas stockings this year because back-to-school and holiday spending are highly correlated. Indeed, per Adobe Analytics, this year looks set to be the first-ever holiday season above $250 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year from 2024.