A continued worker and skills shortage in many countries…
A worker and skills shortage is arguably the biggest issue that immigration policymakers are currently trying to solve globally.
The factors that have contributed to this situation include:
an aging workforce
a lack of tech skills in the workforce despite a growing demand
employees leaving the workforce during and post-COVID-19
restrictive immigration policy
The bottom line is that with a declining birth rate, this issue is not set to improve anytime soon — and productivity, innovation and economic conditions are likely to suffer.
70%
66%
62%
58%
54%
50%
46%
42%
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
China
European Union
United States
Japan
…combined with a confusing employment environment
a skills mismatch in China, where there is an oversupply of university graduates, but a shortage of trade workers in specific sectors such as manufacturing
skills mismatch in China
job switching rates doubling in Saudi Arabia
slowing rate of talent acquisition in many businesses in Europe
…has resulted in immigration policymakers working to offset these issues.
Many countries are implementing relaxed immigration policies to welcome skilled migrants and their families, to make it easier for international students to stay after graduating a foreign university, and to help entrepreneurs and investors build businesses and create jobs. Other key changes we foresee in the next two years to help counteract the skills and worker shortage in many countries include:
Countries move to online application systems for their main work permits
Offline
Online
We considered immigration application systems to be "online" if part of the system is digital for the main work authorization scheme as determined in our Immigration Knowledge Library, as of September 27, 2023.
Worldwide Immigration Trends Report
Key elections in 2024 will determine the direction and durability of these policies
Key national elections in 2024 will dictate whether immigration policy will create a path out of the worker and skills shortage, or if governments will instead choose to protect the domestic workforce due to political pressure or nationalistic positions.
2024
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Taiwan
presidential election
Finland
(possible from January-April)
presidential election
Indonesia
presidential election
Russia
presidential election
South Africa
(possible from May-July)
general election
European Parliament
parliamentary election
Belgium
parliamentary election
Mexico
general election
United States
presidential election
Ghana
general election
Access the Worldwide Immigration Trends Report 2024 to read more about these trends and projections
Read more
Source:
The Great People Shortage is coming — and it's going to cause global economic chaos, Business Insider (October 20, 2022), available at https://www.businessinsider.com/great-labor-shortage-looming-population-decline-disaster-global-economy-2022-10
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Click the options above to see which countries do, or do not have, online application systems
Click on each month to explore each country's election
The working age population is declining
In the upcoming election, the Democratic Progressive Party, the party that has been in power for three consecutive terms, is currently in the lead. The main opposition party, Kuomintang, has seen its popularity decline in recent months, partially due to new candidates who have split the vote. Taiwan remains strategically important for the United States since it accounts for 70% of global semiconductor production and because it has recently provided significant economic funding and support to Taiwan. Therefore, the election could have significant geopolitical implications for the global economy and could potentially influence Taiwan's immigration policy, visa regulations and approach to immigrants.
Finland’s president enjoys particularly significant foreign policy sway, and the upcoming presidential election — which will bring to power a new president (the incumbent having served his maximum two terms) — appears to have one concern: the country’s deteriorating relations with Russia. All current frontrunners’ public campaigns speak of increased engagement with the West, including NATO and the European Union. All that said, the immigration implications of this election (unlike the 2023 parliamentary elections) are unlikely to be significant, given the president’s limited domestic powers in this area. However, it is possible that if trade opens up due to increased international engagement, immigration agreements may follow.
The outcome of the election has the potential to influence the direction of immigration policy in the country. At this juncture, however, it is unclear which way candidates will steer immigration policy.
Despite the conflict in Ukraine, the country appears set to go ahead with its presidential election on March 17, 2024. The incumbent Russian leader – Vladimir Putin – is expected to run and to win. Accordingly, the election is unlikely to change the country’s current immigration policy.
The upcoming election is anticipated to be a pivotal moment in the country's political landscape. If the current political party maintains its authority, it is likely that the Trusted Employer Scheme and remote work visa program would be executed. The potential formation of a coalition government that prioritizes business interests may prompt the relaxation of work visa criteria, enhancements to the efficiency of immigration services and a proactive approach to retaining and attracting skilled individuals. In addition, the incoming administration may implement measures aimed at ensuring that the immigration system is financially sustainable.
The main question is whether gains will be made by radical parties, which would further complicate reaching common positions and passing legislation. Right-wing parties are currently predicted to make gains.
The parliamentary election is likely to be as unpredictable as previous elections. The increase in asylum applications in recent years has fueled concern over migration management and seen a rise of Flemish far-right nationalist parties.
The outcome of the election has the potential to influence the direction of border security, refugee policy, visa regulations and bilateral agreements with border countries. With a change in political party, the National Immigration Institute may undergo notable shifts in its operational approach and priorities, such as increased emphasis on humanitarian considerations, streamlined visa processes, or enhanced border enforcement measures. As the election year approaches resignations of current Secretaries of State and other campaigning officials are likely (as has occurred in the past), which could cause operational disruptions.
The result of the presidential election in November 2024 could have significant impact on immigration policy. A change in administration is likely to mean a return to a protectionist approach to all areas of immigration, from employment-based sponsorship to humanitarian categories. Regardless of the election outcome, however, border security is likely to continue to be a focus of U.S. immigration policy.
The outcome of the 2024 elections is expected to be highly disputed, mostly as a result of the low voter turnout observed during the by-elections in 2023, which was in part due to dissatisfaction among voters toward the ruling party. The ruling political party will persist in prioritizing improving the country’s macroeconomic policies and its foreign trade programs, which may be hindered by the country’s high public debt, unless managed appropriately.
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stringent immigration application requirements subsiding
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degrees growingly being removed as a requirement for foreign workers
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a rise in combination visas for worker flexibility
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the use of data to attract the right talent
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more input of stakeholders, particularly employers, incorporated into immigration pathway building
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creation and improvement of online systems to streamline immigration application submission, processing and issuance
See countries with online application systems
Drag the timeline to see more months ahead.
The world is also reeling from a confusing employment environment. Though unemployment rates are low in many countries, job positions are still going unfilled at record levels. Other volatile employment environments include:
job switching rates doubling in Saudi Arabia from 2020 to 2021
A skills mismatch in the workforce is a global issue, leading to decreased economic productivity, higher unemployment and wage disparities, and could stunt a country's growth while widening social inequalities.
The Great Reshuffle has been part of the reason there is a labor and skills shortage in many countries, creating a challenging environment for employers who are struggling to meet worker demands.
Hiring is slowing down across all countries
June 2023, year to year Linkedin Hiring rate
Indonesia
Germany
United Arab Emirates
France
Italy
Netherlands
Mexico
Brazil
Spain
United States
United Kingdom
Canada
India
Sweden
Ireland
Singapore
the slowing rate of talent acquisition in many businesses in Europe despite high employment rates
Source:
LinkedIn Economic Graph, Created with Datawraper available at https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/blog/job-seekers-search-intensity-is-surging-amid-cooling-labor-markets
-15.1%
-17.2%
-18.6%
-17.8%
-20.6%
-20.1%
-19.8%
-18.9%
-33.7%
-28.0%
-27.6%
-25.6%
-24.9%
-22.5%
-20.9%
-20.6%
Access the Worldwide Immigration Trends Report 2024 to read more about these trends and projections
Read more
in many businesses in Europe
Tap to highlight the country or region
Click each point to learn more
China
European Union
United States
Japan
slowing rate of talent acquisition in many businesses in Europe
job switching rates doubling in Saudi Arabia
skills mismatch in China
China
European Union
United States
Japan
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