By Front Office Sports
Posted July 13, 2026
Share
Europe Hits Highs and Lows in Thrilling World Cup
WORLD CUP BETTING PREVIEW
We’re in the home stretch of the FIFA World Cup. As ever, European teams dominate—only Argentina can prevent a UEFA side from winning five of the past six tournaments. In fact, six of the quarterfinalists were from Europe—the most since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup in 1994.
This World Cup’s biggest stars—besides Lionel Messi, of course—are also European. Kylian Mbappé scored his eighth goal of the tournament in France’s 2-0 quarter-final win against Morocco, taking him level with the Argentine legend in the Golden Boot race. Erling Haaland has become a celebrity in the United States, in part thanks to his seven goals that took Norway to a historic quarter-final. And England captain Harry Kane and emerging icon Jude Bellingham are joint-fourth top scorers, on six goals.
Yet not every European heavyweight has made a deep run at the tournament. There have been some surprise exits against teams from South America and Africa. And UEFA’s ongoing domination at the World Cup meant that some big names headed home in all-UEFA clashes.
Front Office Sports and BetMGM take you through how European teams are faring at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Dramatic Exits
Despite Europe’s dominance throughout the group and knockout stages, there have been some shocks along the way.
Germany was among the top 10 favorites for the World Cup, opening at +900. It had a favorable round-of-32 game against Paraguay, with -250 odds at kickoff to move on, with 74% of tickets and 90% of the handle at BetMGM. Yet +425 underdog Paraguay knocked out the four-time winner in a memorable penalty shootout, in arguably the biggest upset of the tournament.
The Netherlands was the next European favorite to be disposed of—again on penalties. The 2010 World Cup finalist had a harder matchup against AFCON champ Morocco, yet was still priced at -135 to qualify for the round of 16. Issa Diop’s last-minute equalizer for the North Africans forced the game into extra time and a shootout most memorable for its misses—taking the 2022 World Cup semifinalist and +105 underdog through to play favorite France.
Continent of Dominance
Everywhere else in the knockout stage, Europe dominated—both as expected and also against the odds.
France overcame Paraguay 1-0 in an ill-tempered round-of-16 game that saw Mbappé score his 19th World Cup goal in just his 19th game—the tournament’s highest-ever goalscorer behind Messi. Opening as BetMGM’s tournament favorite at +600, Les Bleus is now the overall favorite to win its third World Cup on July 19.
Belgium was the -175 favorite to advance against Senegal, with BetMGM odds at +138. The 2018 World Cup semifinalist was down 2–0 with five minutes to go, yet still made it through after extra time. It then faced the home favorite, the USA. The cohost only just edged the odds, at -125, but received seven times as many moneyline bets as any other round-of-16 team. Yet it was swept aside 4–1 in the most one-sided game of the round.
Semifinal Romps
Only the top four seeds remain. It means FIFA and soccer fans have the dream semifinal lineup: four heavyweights, each of them past champions.
There will be one European team guaranteed in Sunday’s final in New Jersey: France plays Spain in the first semifinal. The UEFA Euro 2024 winner has been solid but unspectacular throughout the tournament—built upon a watertight defense rather than its typical attacking flair. In fact, La Roja has conceded just one goal in its six games: its 2–1 quarterfinal win over Belgium. If it’s to overcome the odds (+120) and beat an imperious French team (-150) in Dallas, it may need a star turn from 19-year-old phenom Lamine Yamal, who has had a relatively quiet tournament.
It’s South America versus Europe in the other semifinal in Atlanta: Argentina–England, the renewal of an old World Cup rivalry. The reigning champion is at +195 to make back-to-back finals. Despite a favorable run, it’s been on the brink of elimination in each knockout game—most notably being 2–0 down with 11 minutes remaining against +800 outsider Egypt. It needed extra time to overcome a stubborn Swiss side in the quarterfinal, too. England also required 120 minutes—and another heroic performance from Bellingham—to defeat Norway in the last round. It is -125 to prevail over Argentina and secure a spot in the final.
This means BetMGM odds have it as a France versus England final in New Jersey on Sunday. It would be France’s third World Cup final in a row—it’s at +140 to make it two triumphs out of three. Spain (+333), England (+333), and Argentina (+450) are the next favorites, respectively.
But whatever the results from the semifinals, we are in for a truly blockbuster final—a fitting end to the biggest World Cup ever.
LEARN MORE
Use Code FOS26 for BetMGM's New Player Offer
Presented by
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
*Data provided by
ODDS TO WIN THE 2026 WORLD CUP
Spain
+333
There was just one more European team knocked out by a non-UEFA side in the round of 32: Bosnia and Herzegovina, +425 underdog to advance, comfortably dispatched 2–0 by a triumphant USA.
The final big European name not to qualify for the round of 16 was Croatia, losing 2–1 to Portugal after a dramatic last-gasp equalizer was ruled out, in Luka Modrić’s likely World Cup swan song.
Another upset saw Norway knock out Brazil in the round of 16—the five-time World Cup winner opened at +600 to repeat its 1994 triumph by lifting the trophy on U.S. soil, and it had 12.9% of the handle at BetMGM. But an Erling Haaland double took Norway to its first quarterfinal. Its last-eight opponent, England, knocked out another cohost in Mexico in the round of 16—a 3–2 thriller.
Unfancied Switzerland also made it through to the quarterfinals—the +105 underdog to advance defeated Colombia on penalties, which had 80% of the BetMGM handle to progress.
In fact, the only European team to be knocked out in the round of 16 was at the expense of another UEFA side: Portugal, defeated 1–0 by Spain, in perhaps Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup game.
France
+140
Argentina
+450
England
+333
