An FTI Consulting Report
2025 Global Online
Retail Report
An Industry Growing, Maturing and Redefining the Omnichannel Experience
Global online retail has entered a period of steadier, more disciplined growth, with markets advancing at different speeds but responding to the same underlying forces: rising consumer expectations, deeper omnichannel integration, rapid mobile adoption, continued innovation in payment methods and the expanding influence of marketplaces and social commerce. While the pace and shape of this evolution vary, shared themes are emerging that signal a new phase of global e-commerce development. Our retail and consumer products experts’ country-by-country analysis explores how these dynamics are playing out on the ground, highlighting the drivers, challenges and growth outlooks shaping regional markets.
Germany
Italy
Online Retail Regains Its Footing Amid New Pressures
As Online Retail Growth Moderates, Order Frequency and Delivery Speed Redefine Consumer Expectations
From 2025 the online retail market is expected to grow at a +5% CAGR, fueled by the following trends:
Growth in mobile e-commerce
Broader consumer adoption, well above younger cohorts
Tech & “phygital” experiences
Seamless checkout & payments
Re-Commerce marketplaces on the rise
Italy’s online retail market grew +25% in 2019–20, +12% in 2020–23, before levelling to +9% in 2024, reaching €51.3 billion. By 2024, online accounted for 21% of total retail sales, more than double 2017 levels, and is expected to approach 25% by 2030.
€51.3 billion
2019
13%
2020
16%
2021
19%
2022
19%
2023
19%
2024
21%
2025f
22%
2030f
25%
26.8
33.5
40.6
44.9
46.9
51.8
56.3
73.3
+25%
+12%
+9%
+10%
+5%
CAGR
Source: Statista
Italian Online Retail Market Value 2019-2030f (€ Billions)
Online market share on total retail market
2024 marked a return of market share gains in German online retail, following declining relevance compared to pandemic-driven peaks in 2021. After the exceptional growth during COVID and a challenging post-pandemic period, German e-commerce is now back on its historical growth trajectory. For years, the competitive landscape of German e-commerce has been characterized by a few dominant platforms and a long tail of niche players. It is now becoming increasingly international, with new entrants and evolving consumer behavior shaping the market.
3.8%
Solid nominal growth was reached in 2024 (+3.8%), bringing e-commerce sales to a new high of €88.8 billion (net of VAT) despite the ongoing consumer crisis. However, inflationary pressures hampered the ability of market participants to translate this growth into profitability.
13.4%
E-Commerce has steadily captured a greater share of Germany’s overall retail market, reaching 13.4% in 2024. While this is significantly below pandemic-driven peaks (14.8% in 2021), it is in line with the historical e-commerce market share trajectory of the pre-pandemic era.
Looking ahead, German e-commerce will continue to expand for the rest of the decade, albeit at a more moderate pace than in the pandemic boom years, as growth will be driven by organic trends: convenience, assortment, and value.
Mike Zöller
Senior Managing Director
Italy’s online retail is entering a new era: marketplaces dominate, same-day delivery emerges, becoming a vector of a paradigm shift, and consumer re-commerce is surging. What was once a complement to physical retail has become a structural battleground where scale, speed and engagement redefine the rules of competition.
Paolo Androni
Senior Director
Omnichannel Integration:
More than 35% of consumers prefer in-store trials for high-value items, emphasizing the need for seamless online-offline experiences.
Mexico
Spain
A Decade of Strong Growth Propelled by COVID
From Pandemic Peaks to Steady Growth: E-Commerce Matures in Spain
Mexico stands out as one of the fastest growing online retail markets in the world. Strong consumer adoption, new approaches by retailers and the constant evolution of payments and promotions are shaping the way the market develops. We believe there are three distinct forces behind this momentum: promotional campaigns, payment innovation and customer loyalty.
Online Sales Approach $50 billion
Online sales in Spain reached $49 billion in 2025, marking a shift from pandemic-driven peaks to steady and sustainable growth. With e-commerce now representing 10.7% of total retail sales, digital channels are firmly established as a structural driver of the country’s retail sector. However, online share gains of retail sales will moderate over the balance of the decade.
Spain’s e-commerce market has moved beyond the volatility of the pandemic years into a phase of sustainable, long-term growth. Digital channels are no longer a complement but a structural driver of the retail sector, reshaping how consumers shop and how companies compete.
Ramón Baeza
Senior Managing Director, Leader of Spain Business Transformation
By 2025, online transactions will represent 16.6% of total retail sales.
In 2019, e-commerce represented just 4.9% of total retail sales. By 2025, that figure is expected to reach 16.6%, and projections suggest it could climb to more than 20% by 2029.
The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market is projected to reach MX$6.09 billion (approx. $324 million USD) in 2025, with growth above 30% year-on-year, and is expected to triple by 2030.
Credit card use remains relatively limited and cash is still essential for many households. To reach a broader set of shoppers, retailers and fintechs are introducing more flexible payment models.
Large-scale promotional events have become a hallmark of Mexico’s retail calendar.
El Buen Fin and Hot Sale now account for about 12% of annual online sales. For many households, these are not just moments for bargains but the key opportunity to buy high-value goods. El Buen Fin 2024 generated more than MX$35 billion in online sales, the highest on record.
More than half of Mexican consumers say loyalty programs influence their purchase decisions, especially when linked with high service quality and exclusivity.
Loyalty has become a decisive factor in Mexico’s increasingly crowded online market. Retailers are moving past simple points-based rewards towards strategies that build broader engagement.
0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Spain E-Commerce Forecast in Billions of USD
Retail E-Commerce Sales
E-Commerce Market Share
Source: EMARKETER
Brazil
Brazil’s E-Commerce Surges Ahead with Pix, Social Commerce, while Global Competition, Digital Transformation Reshapes the Online Retail Landscape
11.8%
sector growth
Brazil’s e-commerce grew 11.8% in 2024, surpassing the global average of 8.4%, with total sales reaching BRL 381 billion (USD 76.36 billion), according to EMARKETER.
77%
have purchased via social media
9%
share of total retail
The e-commerce market share has increased from 8.62% in 2023 to 9.03% in 2024.
40%
of transactions used Pix
Pix, Brazil’s instant payment system launched by the Central Bank in 2020, now accounts for 40% of e-commerce transactions. With the upcoming launch of Pix Parcelado (installment Pix), its adoption is expected to grow even further.
The Netherlands
The Dutch online retail market, one of Europe's most advanced, has transitioned from explosive growth to steady, mature expansion. E-commerce is deeply integrated into the Netherlands' retail landscape, supported by world-class digital infrastructure and high consumer adoption. With a market size of €36.5 billion in 2025, representing 31% of total retail sales, the sector is poised for resilient growth through 2030, driven by innovation, convenience and sustainability.
Market Size and Growth:
€36.5 billion in 2025, a 7.9% increase from 2024, with a projected CAGR of 4-8% through 2030.
Source: Thuiswinkel.org, Mordor Intelligence
20
25
30
35
40
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
E-Commerce Market Growth in the Netherlands (2020-2025)
Source: Landmark Global
€ Billions
Year
Dutch consumers demand convenience, value, and trust, making innovation and sustainability key to staying competitive.
Thuiswinkel.org
Dutch E-Commerce Association
United Kingdom
Mobile-led Growth and Omnichannel Habits Shaping a Mature but Pressured Market
Europe’s most mature e-commerce market, the United Kingdom, reached $163 billion in 2025 and continues to demonstrate robust growth potential, primarily driven by underlying trends of digitalization and an expanding addressable market. Despite this positive outlook, geopolitical turbulence and a confluence of local challenges, such as labor shortages, pricing competition and cybersecurity, pose threats for retailers which can’t be ignored.
The boundaries between online and offline retail continue to blur with 80% of United Kingdom consumers preferring a blend of in-store and online shopping.
80%
Mobile commerce has emerged as the fastest-growing segment, with smartphones now handling 55% of all e-commerce transactions.
55%
Success in the United Kingdom retail market environment requires operational excellence, technological sophistication, and a relentless focus on customer value creation. The next five years will likely see further consolidation and innovative partnerships, with well-capitalized and operationally efficient retailers gaining market share while those unable to adapt to changing consumer expectations and cost pressures facing continued difficulties.
Ralph Fernando
Senior Managing Director
U.S.
As the Endgame for E-Commerce Draws Closer, DTC Strategies Are Evolving
U.S. retail sales remain historically high, yet much of that growth is illusory-driven by inflation rather than true gains in purchasing power. At the same time, e-commerce is showing signs of maturity – slow growth which is expected to plateau by 2030. The pure DTC model faces challenges, and the strategies needed to compete are evolving, with three main paths forward for legacy DTC businesses: physical retail, wholesale and marketplaces.
The clear takeaway is that the future success for DTC is in omnichannel sales, yet brands still need to be strategic in how they deploy resources across channels based on their brand heritage and ambition.
Cailyn Mittur
Managing Director
$1.27 trillion
total in sales
online sales will grow 8.5% in 2025 to a projected $1.27 trillion total in online sales
30%
by 2030
e-commerce market share of total retail sales expected to plateau near 30% by 2030
23.5%
market share
projected e-commerce market share of total retail sales in 2025
Key Contacts
Mexico
SPAIN
The Netherlands
United Kingdom
United states
Australia
Brazil
Germany
ITALY
Brazil is emerging as one of the most dynamic digital retail markets globally. The combination of highly connected consumers, rapid adoption of technologies like Pix and social commerce, and the aggressive entry of international players is reshaping the competitive landscape. Companies that fail to adapt quickly to these new digital consumption patterns risk being left behind.
Samuel Aguirre
Senior Managing Director,
Head of FTI Consulting Latin America
A Mature Market Still Exhibits Dynamism and Growth Prospects
Australia
Online Retail Comeback: Reaccelerating to Double-Digit Growth
The growth of Australia's online retail sector is back on track, driven by consumer demand for value and convenience. This is especially evident in the food, hardware and automotive categories, with supermarkets, in particular, expanding the availability of click and collect services. As the retail sector rebounds, the landscape is also evolving, with established players like Amazon facing increased competition from fast-growing, low-cost platforms like Temu and SHEIN.
Despite a post-COVID dip in FY23, online sales grew 4.3% in FY24 to more than A$60 billion and are projected to continue growing, driven by innovation and digital adaptation.
Expected modest in-store sales growth will push online sales to 14% of total sales in FY25 and to more than 20% by FY31.
A$60 billion in sales
20% growth by FY31
Australian online growth is accelerating, particularly in fashion, electronics, and furniture, supported by the rise of marketplaces and investments in fulfillment centers and faster
delivery options.
Kate Warwick
Senior Managing Director,
Head of Australia Retail & Consumer Products
Source: NAB, ABS, MST Marquee
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
ABS measure
Marketplace for C2C
Offshore online
Not captured
Media
Small enterprise, not defined as part of ABS
Online Retail Sales (ASm)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
National Australian Bank (NAB)
Australian Online Market Growth
Seventy-seven percent of Brazilian digital shoppers made purchases via social media — placing the country ahead of markets like the U.S. and UK. Instagram is currently the most used platform for social shopping in Brazil and the recent launch of TikTok Shop is expected to further accelerate this trend.
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Jeff Wray
Senior Managing Director
UNITED STATES
Tim Schleeter
Senior Managing Director
UNITED STATES
Bill Krogstad
Managing Director
UNITED STATES
Cailyn Mittur
Managing Director
UNITED STATES
John Yozzo
Managing Director
UNITED STATES
Jorge Lacayo
Senior Managing Director
MEXICO
Dimitrio Gomez
Managing Director
Mexico
Ramón Baeza
Senior Managing Director
SPAIN
Martijn Hulshof
Managing Director
NETHERLANDS
Ralph Fernando
Senior Managing Director
United Kingdom
Kate Warwick
Senior Managing Director
Australia
Ben Shrimpton
Senior Managing Director
Australia
Samuel Aguirre
Senior Managing Director
Brazil
Mike Zöller
Senior Managing Director
germany
Giuseppe Farinacci
Senior Managing Director
italy
Australia
Brazil
Germany
Italy
Mexico
Spain
The Netherlands
United Kingdom
U.S.
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