China Property toolkit
High-frequency Property
Market Performance Snapshot (incl. Proprietary Completion Forecast)
Nationwide Property Market Development and Trends
A compilation of the most topical charts on the weekly property market performance, with implications for Top-100 developers' monthly sales, nationwide construction activities (new starts/completion), as well as brokerage and home appliance sales trends.
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A visual summary of the latest household demand changes (including both fundamental affordability and secondary market sentiments) as well as industry liquidity circumstances based on developers' funding gap analysis.
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A glance of China property market development on official NBS data release and monthly mosaic of mortgage and secondary market.
Primary and secondary transactions in c.75/c.20 cities
Tracking escalated/comprehensive HPR
easing impact
Key barometers we track
Demand – Composite Household Demand Score
○ Fundamental: affordability at the cost-side (home purchase cost and property price gap against fair value) and the income-side (if Stage II policies launched)
○ Sentiment: secondary market indicators, including secondary prosperity index, listing volume growth, turnover days and agency confidence index
NBS data snapshot
Mortgage and secondary market monthly mosaic
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Property Barometers Tracking Demand and Supply Changes
Where we are: Property demand-side strength and developers’ funding gap
Supply - Developers' Liquidity Changes
○ Developers' funding gap: derived from the gap between implied cash balance against cash level that can support normalized operation
○ Major cash flow items: developers’ contract sales and cash collection, land acquisition payment, construction activity and payment, and multi-channel debt balance changes
Source: CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Primary GFA sold YTD on average in c.75 cities vs. historical level
Source: CREIS, Beike, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Sublime China Information, Wind, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GS Property Completion (GSPC) tracker
Source: NBS, CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: beike, Rong360, Zhuge, Centaline, CREIS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Property Barometers Tracking Demand and Supply Changes
Nationwide Property Market Development and Trends
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
High-frequency Property
Market Performance Snapshot (incl. Proprietary Completion Forecast)
Property Barometers Tracking Demand and Supply Changes
A compilation of the most topical charts on the weekly property market performance, with implications for Top-100 developers' monthly sales, nationwide construction activities (new starts/completion), as well as brokerage and home appliance sales trends.
High-frequency Property
Market Performance Snapshot (incl. Proprietary Completion Forecast)