NA
EUR
APAC
LATAM
MEA
2024 Global
End-of-Year Forecast
The growth of advertising, driven by all of its digital forms, has seemingly defied expectations of a slowdown, accelerating again in 2024 and maintaining a faster rate of growth through 2029 than we predicted at this time last year. The ad industry will surpass, for the first time, $1 trillion in total revenue this year and climb 7.7% in 2025 to $1.1 trillion.
See how well you can forecast ad revenue growth for the media we track. Select a point for each year. Then click 'Next' to see how close you are.
The Elements Edition
Chemical elements rarely occur on their own in the natural environment. More often, they appear in combination with other elements to increase stability. Marketers, too, combine elements within media plans to take advantage of performance improvements that come from reaching audiences across multiple touchpoints, activities, times of day, etc.
7.7%
6.3%
2024
6.0%
2025
2026
2027
6.3%
5.9%
2028
2029
Advertising revenue growth
In 2024, global advertising revenue is forecast to grow
9.5%
and accounted for a total revenue of
$1.04
TRILLION
(excluding the impact of U.S. political advertising).
Test your predictions
Global Ad Growth vs. Global GDP Growth
Digital consolidation is driving several imperatives for advertisers
03
Bt
In a year where incumbent governments lost vote share in elections around the world, denoting people’s growing distrust in existing power structures, the consolidation of revenue among a few major tech platforms may increase public wariness of corporate as well as political power. We may expect to see brands seeking to authentically position themselves as distinct from the establishment.
Building
Trust
04
Ai
AI is a multiplier of technology and creativity, not a driver of advertising growth in and of itself. Brands are often rewarded by shareholders for touting their use of the technology to increase efficiency and improve productivity. Yet consumers are more fickle, at times embracing its uses and at other times decrying them. Brands that lean into the obvious direction of travel toward more AI while ensuring it remains ethically responsible are likely best positioned over the long-term to capitalize on the effects.
Artificial
Intelligence
02
Pb
The ease of basic performance marketing on these large digital platforms (alongside AI automation) tempts brands to over-rotate to short-term metrics. But this same environment actually makes distinctive brand building more crucial than ever, not less. When everyone has access to the same performance tools and AI capabilities, brand differentiation becomes a competitive advantage.
Performance
vs. Branding
01
Nc
Marketers are reliant on the largest tech and media platforms to reach their audiences and communicate with consumers. But as the products and services overlap, complexity increases, pushing one-time specialists to broaden their own capabilities and think about KPIs more holistically.
Navigating
Complexity
01
Nc
Navigating
Complexity
02
Pb
Performance vs. Branding
03
Bt
Building
Trust
04
Ai
Artificial
Intelligence
Media Forecasts
10.0%
Dg
Digital
10.0%
$813.3BN
Digital
2025 growth percentage
2025 total ad revenue
“Pure-play” digital, excluding the digital extensions of traditional media such as CTV and digital out-of-home (DOOH), but including YouTube and TikTok—is the largest segment of advertising revenue globally and will account for 72.9% of total advertising in 2025 and 76.8% in 2029.
1.9%
Tv
Television
1.9%
$169.1BN
Television
2025 growth percentage
2025 total ad revenue
TV remains the most effective form of advertising, according to research. Yet we forecast global TV (including both linear and streaming, but excluding political revenue) will grow just 2.4% on a compound basis from 2024 to 2029, significantly slower than total advertising growth of 6.4%.
0.3%
$27.0BN
Audio
2025 growth percentage
2025 total ad revenue
0.3%
Au
Audio
Streaming audio will see double-digit growth in 2024 and 4.4% growth on a compound annual basis through 2029. Traditional audio, however, will see its share drop from 1.8% of global advertising in 2024 to 1.2% in 2029 (although it will still account for more than 60% of total audio ad revenue).
7.2%
$56.1BN
2025 growth percentage
2025 total ad revenue
7.2%
OOH
Out-of-home
Out-of-home
Outdoor advertising has maintained its share of the global advertising industry in the face of the digital onslaught better than any other channel. It is forecast to account for 5.0% of total ad revenue in 2025. The channel has almost certainly benefited from its “unskippable” nature in more recent years, its location-based value proposition, and its rapid digitalization and innovation.
-3.0%
$48.1BN
2025 growth percentage
2025 total ad revenue
Globally, total print advertising revenue, inclusive of all traditional and digital formats across both newspapers and magazines, will decline 4.5% in 2024 and a further 3.0% in 2025. By 2029 their combined share will represent just 3.0% of total ad revenue, down from 10.7% in 2019 and 35.1% in 2009.
-3.0%
Pr
5.9%
$2.3BN
Cinema
2025 growth percentage
2025 total ad revenue
Cinema advertising is forecast to grow 5.2% in 2024 and a further 5.9% in 2025, though the $2.3 billion total will fall short of 2019’s $3.0 billion global figure. Some markets will have surpassed 2019 levels by 2025, but of the world’s five largest cinema ad markets, namely the U.S., Brazil, the U.K., India, and South Korea, only Brazil will have completed its recovery by 2025.
5.9%
Cn
Cinema
10.0%
Dg
Digital
1.9%
Tv
Television
7.2%
OOH
Out-of-home
0.3%
Au
Audio
-3.0%
Pr
5.9%
Cn
Cinema
We now forecast that ad revenue growth will outpace nominal GDP growth in 2024 and 2025.
GroupM POV - Global Economy
Category Intelligence
5.3%
CPG
Consumer Packaged Goods
5.3%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
In a world preoccupied with conflict, technology, and an increasingly algorithmically driven media diet, CPG brands are looking to identify and align with cultural moments to help drive brand differentiation and sales growth. While media consumption has shifted in some part to online, and social channels in particular, the impact of TV (including both linear and streaming) is likely to retain its importance for CPG brands as companies look to drive both long-term brand health and near-term purchases.
CPG
Consumer Packaged Goods
12.8%
De
Digital Endemics
12.8%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
In 2017, nearly a decade ago, the median advertising intensity (advertising expense as a percentage of revenue) for this group of companies was more than 19%, invested to a large extent on digital channels by in-house teams. Over the last two years, a focus on profitability amid rising interest rates and an increasing reliance on brand storytelling by the now “establishment players” has led to some growing pains and a sector-typical willingness to test, innovate, and make big bets.
De
Digital Endemics
0.8%
Rt
Retailers
0.8%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
While the biggest companies in this group, including Amazon, PDD and Walmart, have continued to report strong GMV growth, others (especially smaller, more nationally focused brick-and-mortar players), have sounded the alarm on consumer cautiousness and slowing sales. These companies may be able to offer an in-store experience the e-commerce players can’t, but some marketers may find it challenging to differentiate their store’s offerings across a range of more digital touch points.
Rt
Retailers
5.9%
Me
Media & Entertainment
5.9%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
The outlook for the year ahead does appear more positive than when we penned last year’s report. Streaming platforms at Disney, WBD, Paramount, and Netflix have all turned quarterly profits, and losses are narrowing at Comcast, ITV, and others. Revenue growth accelerated in Q3 of this year for all segments other than music, with positive growth in all segments (the first time that has been true since Q1 of 2022). However, linear TV’s gains from having the U.S. elections, the Olympics, the Copa America, and the Euros all in the same quarter are unlikely to be sustainable going forward.
Me
Media & Entertainment
1.9%
Fs
Financial Services
1.9%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
Because of compliance issues and integration complexities, the industry has been slow to avail itself of a host of new offerings that other sectors have adopted, including retail media networks, social media, and influencer marketing. Partly due to a renewed (and necessary) focus on brand building, companies in the sector continue to make significant investments in audio, TV, and sports sponsorships. Economic uncertainty and the growing distrust of traditional financial institutions further complicate the landscape, creating both opportunities and challenges for tech-forward financial brands. Balancing brand building with performance marketing and navigating compliance requirements are likely to remain key areas of focus.
Fs
Financial Services
2.1%
Tn
Technology
2.1%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
The rapid pace of innovation is forcing adaptation on the part of tech advertisers. B2B brands are shifting to more digital marketing-led strategies, adding complexity to existing measurement and reporting. Digital channels are increasingly seen as critical to reaching new generations of consumers (whether for consumer or enterprise products), but as competition heats up, differentiation is challenging. Brand building continues to rely on sports, though advertisers are finding the space crowded as more sectors look to sporting events for scaled reach and cultural relevance.
Tn
Technology
9.3%
Am
Automotive
7.4%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
Automotive advertisers are now caught in a similar situation to media companies. The writing seems to be on the wall as to future emissions requirements and the transition to battery powered and hybrid cars (similar to the shift to streaming). But the economics haven’t yet caught up and the competitive field for electric vehicles is much more fragmented than that of traditional combustion vehicles. Newer players like BYD are offering cheaper EVs and at the same time investing in coveted sports sponsorships like the UEFA Euros tournament in summer of 2024.
Am
Automotive
2.8%
Ph
Pharma
2.8%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
Every industry is in a constant state of evolution and flux, but healthcare may rival advertising with the pace and magnitude of external factors driving change for the sector. Populations are aging and environmental and dietary factors are rapidly influencing future health outcomes (and future healthcare and pharmaceutical needs). And, in a recurring motif from this year’s report, competing successfully in a rapidly evolving industry can be complicated by internal divisions, regional and local nuance, and lagging technological integration.
Ph
Pharma
9.0%
Lx
Luxury
9.0%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
Luxury advertisers have experienced significant volatility by region over the last four years. Consumption has flagged in China this year, and organic growth has slowed in North America as well. The APAC region, excluding Japan, has declined in the last three quarters for most companies reporting such a segment. Outperformance in Japan likely has more to do with a weaker yen and travelers from China, especially, looking for deals, implying a more transactional and price-conscious luxury consumer in 2024 and 2025.
Lx
Luxury
<1.0%
B2B
Business-to-
Business
<1.0%
Median Advertising as a % of Revenue
As the market matures and borrowing costs remain high, we expect advertising growth from digital endemics to decelerate from the high single-digit rates of 2016-2019. But digital endemics are still classified as high-intensity advertisers, with median advertising spend (excluding Amazon, Google and Meta) representing 14.9% of revenues in 2022. As AI-focused start-ups gain scale in the coming years, we expect them to partly rely on advertising to acquire users and grow revenue.
B2B
Business-to- Business
5.3%
CPG
Consumer Packaged Goods
12.8%
De
Digital Endemics
0.8%
Rt
Retailers
5.9%
Me
Media & Entertainment
1.9%
Fs
Financial Services
2.1%
Tn
Technology
9.3%
Am
Automotive
2.8%
Ph
Pharma
9.0%
Lx
Luxury
<1.0%
B2B
Business-to-
Business
The rules of the game have evolved. Success will require teams that are multi-discipline, infused with AI tools, and data-native.
GroupM - Collective Intelligence
Top 10 Markets
10
Australia
$17.5 B
2024 Ad Revenue
2.2%
2024 Growth
3.7%
2025 Growth
6
France
$30.5 B
2024 Ad Revenue
8.5%
2024 Growth
4.9%
2025 Growth
4
U.K.
$53.2 B
2024 Ad Revenue
8.3%
2024 Growth
7.0%
2025 Growth
2
China
$204.5 B
2024 Ad Revenue
13.5%
2024 Growth
10.3%
2025 Growth
1
U.S.
$379.0 B
2024 Ad Revenue (Ex-Political)
9.0%
2024 Growth
7.0%
2025 Growth
3
Japan
$52.5 B
2024 Ad Revenue
4.5%
2024 Growth
4.0%
2025 Growth
5
Germany
$37.6 B
2024 Ad Revenue
6.3%
2024 Growth
4.5%
2025 Growth
7
Brazil
$21.1 B
2024 Ad Revenue
11.6%
2024 Growth
12.6%
2025 Growth
8
India
$18.5 B
2024 Ad Revenue
10.2%
2024 Growth
9.4%
2025 Growth
9
Canada
$21.2 B
2024 Ad Revenue
9.7%
2024 Growth
10.5%
2025 Growth
8.3%
U.K.
Growth
6.3%
Germany
Growth
9.7%
Canada
Growth
8.5%
France
Growth
13.5%
China
Growth
9.0%
U.S.
Growth
4.5%
Japan
Growth
10.2%
India
Growth
11.6%
Brazil
Growth
2.2%
Australia
Growth
Conclusion
The advertising industry is hurtling through a rapid evolution brought on by the pervasive use of AI and an ongoing shift to digital channels. Pureplay digital advertising, projected to surge 12.4% in 2024 and 10.0% in 2025, is solidifying its dominance, representing 72.9% of total advertising revenue in 2025 and a projected 76.8% by 2029. This digital dominance, however, is accompanied by increasing scrutiny and regulation, creating a complex environment for marketers to navigate.
While the narrative of television's decline persists, its effectiveness remains undeniable. Despite this, global TV revenue, including streaming, is forecast to grow at a more modest 2.4% compound annual rate from 2024 to 2029, significantly trailing overall advertising growth. This divergence underscores the need for marketers to pursue a balanced approach, leveraging all the tools and channels available to meet both performance and long-term brand goals.
This report is authored by:
Kate Scott-Dawkins
President,
Business Intelligence
Nidhi Shah
Analyst,
Business Intelligence
Explore previous editions of This Year Next Year:
This Year Next Year : Mid-Year 2024
This Year Next Year : End-Of-Year 2023 -
The Blueprint Edition
This Year Next Year : Mid-Year 2023
Business Intelligence: China Spotlight 2023
This Year Next Year : End-of-Year 2022
The full This Year Next Year report is available to GroupM clients. To access or learn more, please email business.intelligence@groupm.com.