TYNY Global Midyear Forecast 2024

There are five key themes impacting our predictions:

2024 Global Midyear Forecast

Two Global Giants

Regulation Rules

Political Packs a Punch

The great economic engines of the U.S. and China, which together make up 57.1% of global ad revenue, are clearly the largest drivers of growth, adding $44.5 billion to their totals in 2024 (excluding U.S. political spending) — nearly 1.5 times the cumulative $27.4 billion in incremental revenue for all other markets combined. They are also home to 22 of the top 25 global media sellers and account for more than 40% of global GDP.

Media and advertising have increasingly come under the scrutiny of global governments and regulators. The current antitrust and anti-competitive agenda within the U.S., EU, and U.K. in particular, can be seen as a reaction to the consolidation of technology, media, and commerce revenue at the largest players.

This year, half the world’s population will be asked to vote, including nearly one billion eligible voters in India. Many of those voters, especially in the Americas, Africa and Asia, will be exposed to political advertising. This year, for the first time, we collected data available on political advertising revenue across our tracked markets.

Media Channel Forecast

The marketing ecosystem over the next few years will face potential impacts from governments and regulatory bodies across the world — impacts that have the potential to upend forecasts and alter even the most sound projections. On top of that, such projections can be skewed by two major players, China and the U.S. Their governments and their major companies have the power to shape vast aspects of the global economy. Artificial Intelligence also has the potential to reshape the industry — as do regulations put in place to guide (or control) its growth. Those regulations, of course, depend on politicians, which in turn are determined by upcoming election cycles. Despite some reactionary moves toward protectionism from some of those politicians, we can see the power and enduring appeal of shared experiences brought by globalization, whether it be a Korean series rocketing to the top of the Netflix charts, or Rema bringing Afrobeats to Spotify's top songs list. You can see it, too, in increasingly global fan bases for sports. With increased globalization - of financial systems, commerce, and media - can come a level of resilience as interconnected systems such as coral reefs tend to be very adept at recovering from multitudinous small shocks. Innovation, the exchange of ideas, and a shared goal to make the advertising industry work better for everyone will help ensure a bright future.

Global Ad Revenue Growth

Explore previous editions of This Year Next Year:

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Digital

Retail media

Television

OOH

Audio

Cinema

Digital pure-play advertising (excluding the digital extensions of TV, audio, print, and OOH) will grow 10.0% in 2024 and make up 70.6% of total revenue for the year, equaling $699.0 billion. The digital category includes retail, search, and 'other' digital (including social media and social video as well as display and other digital advertising not covered in our digital extensions totals).

Search advertising revenue is expected to grow 5.3% in 2024 and accelerate to 6.3% in 2025. Search will account for 20.9% of total ad revenue in 2024, a share that we predict will remain fairly stable over the next five years.

The channel remains the fastest growing segment of digital, forecast to add 17.5% in 2024 and 13.5% in 2025 as retailers seek to capitalize on their customer data sets and advertisers are lured by the promise of closed-loop attribution and the ability to more closely tie media to sales.

Audio advertising is forecast to hit $27.0 billion in global revenue for 2024, up 0.8% over 2023. Growth will remain around 1% over the next three years, driven by increases in digital audio. This will add nearly three billion dollars from an expected $7.9 billion in 2024 to $10.6 billion in 2029.

In 2024, we now expect OOH advertising to reach $49.7 billion, 41.0% ($20.4 billion) of which will be digital OOH. This represents an 11.5% increase over 2023 for total OOH. China alone will represent more than half of global DOOH revenue (54.6%) in 2024.

Total TV, including both linear or traditional TV and its digital extensions (which we refer to as connected TV or CTV), is expected to grow 2.7% to $163.2 billion in 2024, following a decline of 0.4% in 2023.

Cinema ad revenue is expected to decelerate significantly from the 13.3% growth of 2023 to 7.1% in 2024, reaching a total of $2.3 billion globally. Growth is forecast to continue decelerating through 2029 when the channel will still not have surpassed the levels of a decade earlier.

In 2024, we forecast total newspaper ad revenue will decline 2.2% globally to $31.2 billion with a further 1.0% decline in 2025. Magazines will account for $17.5 billion of global ad revenue in 2024, a 1.8% share. Revenue is down 4.4% from 2023 and we expect a further 4.7% decline in 2025.

+10.0%

+5.3%

+17.5%

+2.7%

+11.5%

+0.8%

-3.0%

+7.1%

The full This Year Next Year report is available to GroupM clients. To access or learn more, please email business.intelligence@groupm.com.

Top 10 Markets

$989.8

(excluding the impact of U.S. political advertising)

7.8%

Global advertising revenue growth estimate

Media trends & tension

Political, Legal, Regulatory

Economic

Social Cultural

Technological

Inflation Media Concentration Advertising as a Percentage of GDP Global Commerce Interest Rates

Antitrust Regulation Platform Bans Political Advertising Social Media Content Digital News AI & Copyright Geopolitical Tensions

Influencer Marketing Sports Advertising Machine-Generated Content Video Spend & Content Investment

The Power of Platforms AI-Enabled Advertising Agent-ification AI Advertising Brains

1.1% Australia Growth

5.7% Canada Growth

9.5% India Growth

11.3% Brazil Growth

8.6% France Growth

4.1% Germany Growth

4.9% U.K. Growth

4.5% Japan Growth

14.0% China Growth

5.8% U.S. Growth

2024 Growth

3.2%

2023 Growth

1.1%

2024 Ad Revenue

$15.8 B

Australia

2025 Growth

5.1%

2024 Growth

5.7%

2024 Ad Revenue

$17.6 B

Canada

2025 Growth

8.7%

2024 Growth

9.5%

2024 Ad Revenue

$18.5 B

India

2025 Growth

12.4%

2024 Growth

11.3%

2024 Ad Revenue

$21.3 B

Brazil

2025 Growth

4.1%

2024 Growth

8.6%

2024 Ad Revenue

$29.7 B

France

2025 Growth

3.8%

2024 Growth

4.1%

2024 Ad Revenue

$37.2 B

Germany

2025 Growth

4.4%

2024 Growth

4.9%

2024 Ad Revenue

$47.8 B

U.K.

2025 Growth

3.5%

2024 Growth

4.5%

2024 Ad Revenue

$48.0 B

Japan

2025 Growth

10.8%

2024 Growth

14.0%

2024 Ad Revenue

$199.4 B

China

2025 Growth

4.9%

2024 Growth

5.8%

2024 Ad Revenue (Ex-Political)

$365.9 B

U.S.

We estimate that global advertising revenue will grow 7.8% in 2024 to $989.8 billion. The industry will surpass one trillion in revenue in 2025, increasing 6.8% to $1.1 trillion, one year earlier than we forecast in December of 2023. We have also revised estimates for the U.S., which we now expect to reach $365.9 billion in ad revenue, up 5.8% over 2023’s $345.9 billion (excluding the impact of political advertising in both years).

Teams Tie Us Together

AI-Enabled Advertising

GroupM estimates that sponsorship revenue will grow at roughly the same pace as advertising over the next five years, underpinned by the globalization of sports leagues, teams and stars. Wearing a team jersey or tuning in to the big match provides connection and the ability to be part of the cultural conversation.

We estimate that 69.5% of ad revenue will be informed by AI in 2024 with the percentage reaching 94.1% by 2029, three years earlier than previously forecast. It is important for advertisers to be experimenting, learning and developing talent in this space now, not in a year’s time.

Olympics: Multisport

FIFA Men’s World Cup: Football

Wimbledon: Tennis

Men’s Rugby World Cup: Rugby

MLB World Series: Baseball

ICC T20 World Cup: Cricket

Women’s FIFA World Cup: Football

Men’s UEFA Euros: Football

NBA Finals: Basketball

ICC ODI World Cup: Cricket

NCAA Men’s March Madness Basketball

Super Bowl American Football

F1 Grand Prix: Racing

Top Sporting Events By Global Advertising Revenue

AI -Enabled Ad Revenue by Channel

E-Commerce Growth Forecast by Market

Two Global Giants

Regulation Rules

Political Packs a Punch

Teams Tie Us Together

AI-Enabled Advertising

Click to listen to: Future's Bright

Kate Scott-Dawkins President, Business Intelligence

Listen to the AI-created TYNY song:

Nidhi Shah Analyst, Business Intelligence

Conclusion

2024 Estimated Political Advertising as a Share of Total Ad Revenue

Uruguay

Sri Lanka

United States

Mexico

Peru

Montenegro

India

Lithuania

8.9%

7.9%

4.1%

3.9%

0.9%

1.5%

2.1%

2.4%

3.7%

Slovak Rep