Agribusiness US Agribusiness Outlook 2026

Organizational risk maturity will help counter widespread economic uncertainty and boost profits, employee vitality and resiliency.

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What to Expect in 2026

Tariffs and economic uncertainty will affect profitability for food and beverage producers, as well as forestry and wood manufacturing. Industry leaders are facing labor shortages, climate change, cyberattacks and product safety issues. But there are opportunities: Businesses that focus on improving their supply chain resilience, tackling labor challenges and implementing enterprise risk management (ERM) tactics that improve an organization’s risk maturity can thrive in 2026.

Profitability

Vitality

Resiliency

Preparedness

Profitability

While U.S. policy changes related to tariffs have hit agribusiness hard, forward-thinking operations will find ways to cope and come out ahead in 2026. A major challenge is importing raw materials, as the U.S. relies on imports to fill gaps, especially in growing off-seasons. Canada, Mexico and the European Union are the most important suppliers, providing 60% of all food imports,1 while other markets provide much of the supply for items like bananas, coffee and cocoa. Even before additional costs from tariffs, raw materials for food and beverage manufacturers have been expensive, as food commodity prices reached their highest level in two years in mid-2025.2 The meat processing industry has been particularly affected, with prices increasing 10% in the first half of 2025 due to shrinking herds, ongoing drought conditions and higher prices for imported beef.3 It’s not just foodstuffs that are seeing price hikes. Tariffs on aluminum and steel — two essential elements in food packaging — are hitting food and beverage companies’ bottom lines as the materials become more expensive.4 Some companies have shied away from raising prices, instead reducing product sizes while keeping prices level, also known as “shrinkflation.”5 However, industry players have seen profits decline as tariffs take a toll and consumers pull back on spending.6,7 This trend is likely to continue in 2026. Forestry and wood production companies are also struggling with profitability. Although tariffs on Canadian imports were intended to stimulate growth for American businesses, American sawmills have been operating at just two-thirds

Rising costs will disrupt profits, but agribusinesses will have options to help them thrive.

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Agribusiness industry leaders are also concerned about the effect of environmental and climate-related events, according to HUB International's 2026 Profitability & Resiliency Executive Survey.10 Still, agribusinesses can fortify 2026 profits by moving up the risk maturity curve. Forging stronger partnerships with international and local suppliers — and seeking new ones — can help soften the blow from tariffs. Similarly, agribusinesses should seek alternative financing to improve cash flow. Agribusiness companies should consider trade credit insurance, which protects policyholders from non-payment of invoices. The demand for this coverage is growing, so agribusinesses will need to work hand-in-hand with an insurance broker with deep expertise in trade credit to find the right coverage at an affordable cost.

More than six in 10 agribusiness leaders think climate change will affect profits in 2026.

In the next decade, the manufacturing labor shortage will reach 2 million unfilled positions,11 which is already having a profound effect on vitality in agribusiness. Immigrant labor is an enormous part of the labor force in agribusiness.12 Due to this reliance, the increase in federal immigration enforcement efforts has had an outsized impact on farms, food production and especially meat processing. As such, workforce availability in food processing is becoming less predictable, creating potential disruptions to operations. To help ensure compliance and maintain productivity, agribusinesses may turn to third-party labor contractors as a reliable staffing option. Many agribusinesses will also turn to automation to fill the shortfall.13 Although not every role can be automated, robots can handle heavy tasks like packaging and palletizing goods. So-called “cobots” that work with human intervention are also being employed in food and beverage processing to help with the labor shortage. However, automation comes with its own challenges — not the least of which is finding skilled labor to operate, maintain and repair machines.14 Yet agribusinesses have options to boost recruiting and retention efforts. They can start by making sure any employed immigrants are documented and are obeying applicable laws, and helping to protect employees as needed.

Benefits will be key: According to the HUB 2025 U.S. Workforce Vitality Gap Index, 73% of employees feel that a comprehensive, personalized benefits program would increase the likelihood they’ll stay at their current organization. In addition, personalized benefits can be a game-changer. As worker vitality in 2026 will rest on a base of retention and productivity, personalized benefits can include retraining and upskilling to help employees adjust to increased automation and offering legal help if necessary.

Ultimately, personalized benefits — whether that includes training, flexible work arrangements or improved healthcare coverage — will help separate agribusinesses that can thrive from those that can only survive.

As workforce shortages persist, agribusinesses will focus on retention to bolster engagement.

Vitality

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Download our 2026 Agribusiness Outlook and Insurance Market Rate Report to see what to expect in the coming year.

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Agribusinesses in 2026 will face ongoing challenges to resiliency, but the year will bring risks with far more at stake than rising insurance premiums. Greater risk from climate change, supply chain breakdowns, worker shortages, and unstable economies and geopolitics represent only some of the heightened issues that will demand agribusinesses move up the risk maturity curve, especially to help business continuity. Ongoing drought conditions have affected crops and livestock production,15 which forces higher input costs for food and beverage. In addition, tariffs on products such as wine from Europe, coffee from Brazil and avocados from Mexico means even more pressure on profits. Experts anticipate food prices to increase 3% over the long term.16 Insurance policies will reflect these realities, stressing certain coverages in agribusiness. Despite the overall decline in property insurance premiums, it will remain challenging across agribusiness, with rates rising 5% to 15%. Underwriters are concerned about the increased number of severe weather events that damage facilities, long repair times on equipment due to parts shortages and infrastructure in need of replacement. With commercial auto insurance costs skyrocketing and median nuclear verdicts hitting $51 million,17 excess casualty policies are likely to see increases of at least 10% and as high as 25% or more. On the positive side, stock throughput insurance rates will remain competitive for non-perishable, low-volatility goods in the supply chain. Rates for insuring highly perishable and volatile commodities are likely to increase.

With the specter of instability from weather, geopolitics and economics hanging over agribusiness, maintaining business continuity will be especially important in 2026. Business continuity plans will need to account for the risk from upstream suppliers, as well as from downstream clients that receive and sell the final product. For example, not only will food production operations need disaster-proof manufacturing facilities, but also take extra steps to ensure the supply chains of businesses that provide the tin cans or cardboard boxes for packaging remain intact. Working with an experienced broker with deep industry knowledge can help agribusinesses uncover weaknesses in risk management plans, find solutions and procure coverage that will help them stay resilient in 2026 and beyond.

Emphasizing risk maturity and strong insurance will boost agribusinesses' resilience and long-term viability.

Resiliency

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Ransomware and data breaches have long been a major issue in agribusiness, with the JBS incident in 2021 perhaps being the most well-known example.18 And food and product safety will always be a risk that agribusinesses must address. Despite organizations’ best efforts, ransomware and data breaches still represent a major vulnerability;19 data breaches on manufacturers cost an average of $5 million per incident in 2025, the third-highest amount across industries.20 For the food and beverage industry, cyberattacks doubled in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024.21 Agribusiness’ move toward automation and AI leaves the sector more vulnerable to cyber threats. Both a lack of employee education and reliance on legacy tech systems have resulted in security gaps. The industry has options to combat these risks. They can strengthen their secure remote access and educate employees on network security to protect the entire business from harm. Underwriters are demanding such measures before issuing policies for cyber coverage, an essential backstop against risk. In fact, the HUB International 2026 Profitability & Resiliency Executive Survey notes 39% of agribusiness industry leaders say they are considering increased insurance coverage for tech and cybersecurity risks. That’s more than for any other risk, including environmental risk (33%) and rising operating and labor costs (30%).

The leading causes of recalls in recent years are allergen contamination (accounting for 38% of recalls); bacterial contamination (22%) and foreign objects (11%).24 Although product recall coverage is more affordable than in the past, business leaders should consider a return to more stringent safety protocols to minimize the risk — even if it comes at a cost. Recalls not only cause monetary damage, but also reputational damage that may take years to overcome.

Proper preparation will minimize heightened risks in 2026 and help protect the bottom line.

Preparedness

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HUB agribusiness industry insurance, risk management and employee benefits specialists will work with you to develop a tailored strategy to protect your bottom line, support the vitality of your workforce and build resiliency for 2026. Here are some initial considerations:

Moving Your Organization Forward

Risks in agribusiness have increased — and so have insurance premiums. Consider taking a higher deductible on some coverages, which reduces premiums and improves experience rating, or think about alternative risk transfer vehicles to lower costs. Ask your broker what kind of insurance strategy meets your risk profile and budget.

Accelerate your risk maturity.

Employees expect you to support their health, safety and wellbeing. A benefits strategy based on personalization and fostering quality employee experiences (QEX) will boost engagement, recruiting and retention and lower risk.

Increase engagement through benefits.

Understand the root cause of your large losses and explain to carriers what you’re doing to prevent future losses. Develop a strategy with HUB to determine the best time and frequency to review alternative markets.

Understand your loss trends.

Let your broker know what changes you’ve made to the business, so there are no surprises at renewal. Review exposures and insurance needs at least 90 days prior to policy renewal, so your broker can identify the best options.

Be transparent with your broker.

Download our 2026 Agribusiness Outlook and Insurance Market Rate Report to see what to expect in the coming year.

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Meet the Experts

About Us

HUB Agribusiness

When you partner with us, you’re at the center of a vast network of experts who will help you reach your goals. For more information on how to manage your insurance costs, reduce your risk and take care of your employees, talk to a HUB Agribusiness insurance specialist.

$1.9B

in commercial insurance premium brokered by HUB

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Agribusiness clients

90,000

insurance policies managed

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Risk Advisor

Eric Lowe

Agribusiness Practice

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Senior Vice President

Charles O'Dell

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Kaleigh Kemmerly

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Justin Pretzer

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Eric Lowe

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Charles O'Dell

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Mary Keiser

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Josh Smart

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Profitability

Resiliency

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Rising costs will disrupt profits, but agribusinesses will have options to help them thrive.

As workforce shortages persist, agribusinesses will focus on retention to bolster engagement.

Emphasizing risk maturity and strong insurance will boost agribusinesses' resilience and long-term viability.

Proper preparation will minimize heightened risks in 2026 and help protect the bottom line.

Download Report

3. CNN Business, “Beef prices are the new egg prices. They’re soaring,” July 21, 2025.

4. The Food Institute, “Brands Brace for Shrinkflation as Steel, Aluminum Levies Double,” June 6, 2025.

1. USDA Economic Research Center, “Agricultural Trade,” April 1, 2025.

2. Reuters, “World food prices at 2-year high on rising meat and edible oils, FAO says,” August 8, 2025.

5. Investopedia, “Inflation Is Cooling. Shrinkflation? It's Alive and Well.” July 4, 2025.

6. Reuters, “Conagra says tariff costs will hit annual profit,” July 10, 2025.

7. MarketWatch, “Kraft Heinz takes $9 billion charge for its stock’s ‘sustained decline’ as it ponders strategic options,” July 30, 2025.

8. National Association of Home Builders, “Can the U.S. lumber industry stand on its own?” June 30, 2025.

9. HBS Dealer, “May 2025 Lumber Report: Prices edge higher,” June 3, 2025.

11. The Manufacturing Institute, “The State of the Manufacturing Workforce in 2025,” February 21, 2025.

12. NY Times, “Why Factories Are Having Trouble Filling Nearly 400,000 Open Jobs,” June 23, 2025.

13. Food Engineering, “Finding the Right Applications for Cobot and Robot Technology,” March 24, 2025.

14. SACA, “Robots and Cobots Finding Niche in Food Manufacturing,” May 13, 2025.

15. HUB’s U.S. Workforce Vitality Gap Index polled 150 decision-makers and 1,500 U.S.-based employees at companies with more than 250 employees.

15. Drought.gov, “National Current Conditions, July 30, 2025-August 5, 2025,” accessed August 12, 2025.

16. The Yale Budget Lab, “State of the U.S. Tariffs: August 7, 2025,” August 7, 2025.

17. Marathon Strategies, “Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear: 2025 Edition,” May 2025.

18. Claroty, “Cyber Attack Overview: JBS Foods Ransomware Incident,” April 3, 2023.

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Download our 2026 INSERT Outlook and Insurance Market Rate Report to see what to expect in the coming year.

of agribusiness industry leaders say they are considering increased insurance coverage for tech and cybersecurity risks.

39%

19. Wisdiam, “8 recent cyber attacks on food production and agriculture,” October 6, 2024.

20. IBM, “Cost of a Data Breach 2025,” July 30, 2025.

21. The Record, “Ransomware attacks on food and agriculture industry have doubled in 2025,” May 2, 2025.

22. Science News, “FDA cuts imperil food safety, but not how you might think,” June 9, 2025.

23. Sedgwick, “Number of recalled products in the U.S. rose 25% in Q1 2025,” May 15, 2025.

24. Trace One, “States Most Impacted by Food Recalls in Recent Years, February 5, 2025.

Excess casualty policies are likely to see increases of at least 10% and as high as 25% or more.

10%

25%

Profitability

of organizations saying staffing shortages are affecting their ability to operate.

65%

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Download our 2026 Agribusiness Outlook and Insurance Market Rate Report to see what to expect in the coming year.

Download Report

Download our 2026 Agribusiness Outlook and Insurance Market Rate Report to see what to expect in the coming year.

of employees feel that a comprehensive, personalized benefits program would increase the likelihood they’ll stay at their current organization.

75%

Insurers will focus on best-in-class agribusinesses with favorable claims histories. Organizations that demonstrate strong ERM will secure coverage at an affordable cost; those lacking risk management strategies will pay more for coverage and may have to seek alternative risk transfer arrangements.

Food safety and recalls have entered a new dimension of risk after budget cuts to the FDA and USDA led to layoffs in 2025.22 The number of food recalls was up 232% in the first quarter of 2025, due to more reliable methods of identifying issues and diminished safety protocols since the pandemic.23

Nearly three-fourths of employees say personalized benefits will improve the likelihood they'll remain at their employer.

Excess casualty policies are likely to see increases of at least 10% and as high as 25% or more.

10. The HUB International 2026 Profitability & Resiliency Executive Survey polled 350 business leaders across North America on the issues facing them on profitability and resilience.

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9. HBS Dealer, “May 2025 Lumber Report: Prices edge higher,” June 3, 2025.

capacity for years.8 While the impact is still unclear, tariffs are likely to affect profits in 2026 due to the cross-border nature of the industry, with lumber prices already rising.9