COVID-19 & Global Food Security: 2 Years Later

As we mark the second anniversary of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are prolonged and likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later presents lessons learned on food security and food system resilience over the last 18 months.

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Food security & poverty

The COVID-19 pandemic is undermining food and nutrition security on a global scale. Estimates suggest that in 2020, an additional 62 million people fell into extreme poverty and more than 124 million additional people faced food insecurity.

Household income and poverty effects (faster recovery scenario)

Source: SAM multiplier model results. Note: Poverty changes reported are for the second quarter of 2020 when COVID-19 restrictions were at their most stringent. These poverty results have been adjusted to account for the overestimation of GDP losses in the multiplier model.

Economic outcomes have been better than expected, but recovery remains uneven around the world, with slower growth and losses projected in low- and middle-income countries. The pandemic has significantly affected livelihoods and incomes, with non-agricultural sectors and higher-income urban households the hardest hit. In some countries, nearly two-thirds of those pushed into poverty were in rural areas. These households face heightened risks from income loss, especially to their food security.

Agricultural production & value chains

At the start of the pandemic, lockdowns and declining consumer demand reduced prices and disrupted markets for fruits, vegetables, and animal-source foods, among others. As global demand began to recover in 2021, food prices surged to their highest levels since the global food price crises of 2007–2008 and 2010–2011.

Rising prices are not likely to last long compared to previous food price crises, but this increase significantly affects consumers in low-income countries and contributes to global food insecurity. Amid a slow global economic recovery, healthy diets are likely to remain unaffordable for 236 million people.

Overall, agrifood chains have shown great resilience to the pandemic. Despite initial fears, COVID-19 has not led to significant food shortages in most countries. Food processors, traders, and other midstream actors in the value chain have struggled to access products and maintain profits but have innovated to address these challenges. Supply chain actors pivoted sales to e-commerce and delivery and shifted production to increase diversification, flexibility, and redundancy of sourcing. Supply chains also made use of technologies that saved labor and increased flexibility. However, agrifood chains remain vulnerable, especially in low-income countries.

FAO monthly food price index in real and nominal terms, January 1990–January 2022

Source: Data from FAO, Food Prices Index, accessed Feb. 4, 2022.

Nutrition, health & social programs

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health and nutrition services around the world, heightening risks for young children, pregnant women, and other vulnerable groups. A survey of 105 countries found that more than half experienced disruptions to antenatal care, routine vaccinations, sick child services, and malnutrition management in 2020. The pandemic also produced challenges for mental health that will likely persist for some time.

Policy responses & implications

the Hub aims to promote innovation

Moving forward, we need a better understanding of why the pandemic affected some countries more than others and which policy responses worked — or didn't. Countries must develop integrated pandemic recovery programs, supported by additional fiscal and monetary resources. As part of the recovery from COVID-19, more populations will need access to vaccinations, and incomes and food security must be better protected. Policy measures should also ensure that supply chains function well and prevent disruptions to agricultural inputs, food processing, and distribution. The evidence gathered during the pandemic must be used to support information sharing, cross-country learning, and knowledge management that informs policymaking.

In the longer term, achieving both pandemic recovery and food systems transformation will require smarter food policies and systems interventions. Food systems transformation is a necessary next step that builds on the component-specific food system policies and actions carried out during the pandemic. These interventions must link different food system components, consider and enhance synergies, and manage trade-offs across the food system. Approaches that “bundle” different technical innovations are one example of how to address complex challenges in a smarter way.

Impacts Around the World

In Yemen, modeling shows that a decline in remittances due to COVID-19 hurt economic output and household welfare in the short term. All households experienced income losses from the pandemic, but poorer households experienced proportionally larger declines, and rural ones were harder hit than urban households.

Provision of essential nutrition services dropped drastically with the pandemic. Modeling research suggests that the combined health and economic crisis could lead to an additional 9.3 million wasted children, 2.6 million stunted children, and 168,000 child deaths by 2022. An additional 2.1 million women may suffer from anemia and 2.1 million children may be born to mothers with low body mass index, making it likely that childhood malnutrition will continue increasing. These effects could lead to more than US$29 billion in future productivity losses, mostly in South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara.

As the pandemic spread, more than 190 countries implemented countrywide school closures, affecting 1.6 billion children around the world. These closures represent months of lost learning and could lead to significantly lower earnings over students’ lifetimes. Evidence suggests that the poor, girls, and other marginalized groups suffer the most from school closures. In addition to the effects on learning, school closures interrupt feeding services and affect household food security. In Nigeria, research indicates that closures led to a substantial increase in food insecurity, with single mothers and poorer households reporting a higher likelihood of skipping meals.

Change in household income due to drop in remittances during 2020, from 2019

Source: COVID-19 Yemen mulitiplier model.

Among vulnerable rural populations in Guatemala, income loss related to the pandemic lockdown led to food insecurity and decreasing dietary diversity. Government support programs were rolled out, but did not reach all those in need, suggesting that better monitoring of food security and nutrition is necessary.

Reported changes in income sources in Guatemala’s Western Highlands

Myanmar faces the combined shock of the pandemic and political upheaval. A study of Myanmar’s dire economic situation shows that policymakers must scale up social protection programs and identify innovative, effective delivery mechanisms, especially for nutritionally vulnerable households, as well as ways to help the country’s producers generate income in the longer term.

Trends in food insecurity experiences and poor maternal dietary diversity in urban and peri-urban Yangon, June 2020 to December 2021

Source: C19-RUFSS.

In the last two years, food systems research has shifted from focusing on the pandemic’s immediate impacts to its medium-term impacts and the path to recovery. Findings from a pilot initiative in Nigeria show that smartphone-based, citizen-driven price data collection can help researchers better understand the effects of shocks like COVID-19. This novel method of data collection may also support longer-term monitoring of food prices in vulnerable regions.

Differences in food security indicators across households with and without access to school feeding

Example of a socio-technical innovation bundle

Source: Based on Barrett et al. 2020.

COVID-19 Hub country engagement process

Households with school feeding service

Households without school feeding service

Bringing together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub, this book illustrates how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. The authors look at how governments’ responses have helped and hindered recovery, and consider how this pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

The COVID-19 pandemic is undermining food and nutrition security on a global scale. Estimates suggest that in 2020,

an additional 62 million people fell into extreme poverty

and

more than 124 million additional people faced food insecurity.

healthy diets are likely to remain unaffordable for 236 million people.

In some countries, nearly two-thirds of those pushed into poverty were in rural areas.

These households face heightened risks from income loss, especially to their food security.

since the global food price crises of 2007–2008 and 2010–2011.

agrifood chains remain vulnerable, especially in low-income countries.

food prices surged to their highest levels

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health and nutrition services around the world, heightening risks for young children, pregnant women, and other vulnerable groups.

A survey of 105 countries found that more than half experienced disruptions to antenatal care, routine vaccinations, sick child services, and malnutrition management in 2020.

The pandemic also produced challenges for mental health that will likely persist for some time.

Provision of essential nutrition services dropped drastically with the pandemic. Modeling research suggests that the combined health and economic crisis could lead to an additional

9.3 million wasted children, 2.6 million stunted children,

and

168,000 child deaths

by 2022. An additional

2.1 million women may suffer from anemia

and

2.1 million children may be born to mothers with low body mass index,

malnutrition will continue increasing. These effects could lead to more than US$29 billion in future productivity losses, mostly in South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara.

making it likely that childhood

Global food price crisis

COVID-19

Real

Nominal

closures led to a substantial increase in food insecurity,

with single mothers and poorer households reporting a higher likelihood of skipping meals.

To help countries respond to the pandemic, CGIAR launched the COVID-19 Hub to coordinate relevant research, engagement, and communications across the entire CGIAR and with key partners. Working across four CGIAR research areas, the Hub aims to promote innovation uptake by the most vulnerable countries. The Hub improved engagement with value chain actors in various countries, helped researchers to build on existing partnerships, and facilitated a better understanding of vulnerabilities and resilience capacities among food system actors.

The Hub improved engagement with value chain actors in various countries, helped researchers to build on existing partnerships, and facilitated a better understanding of vulnerabilities and resilience capacities among food system actors.

uptake by the most vulnerable countries.

Moving forward, we need a better understanding of why the pandemic affected some countries more than others and which policy responses worked — or didn't.

Countries must develop integrated pandemic recovery programs, supported by additional fiscal and monetary resources. As part of the recovery from COVID-19, more populations will need access to vaccinations, and incomes and food security must be better protected. Policy measures should also ensure that supply chains function well and prevent disruptions to agricultural inputs, food processing, and distribution. The evidence gathered during the pandemic must be used to support information sharing, cross-country learning, and knowledge management that informs policymaking.

In the longer term, achieving both pandemic recovery and food systems transformation will require smarter food policies and systems interventions.

Food systems transformation is a necessary next step that builds on the component-specific food system policies and actions carried out during the pandemic. These interventions must link different food system components, consider and enhance synergies, and manage trade-offs across the food system. Approaches that “bundle” different technical innovations are one example of how to address complex challenges in a smarter way.

Even as India’s agrifood sector recovers from the initial shocks of COVID-19, food insecurity remains high in many regions due to income losses and high food prices. The pandemic also affected supply and demand for health services — supply disruptions, travel restrictions, and fewer health workers caused almost all health services to shut down during the lockdown period. When healthcare became available again, beneficiaries remained fearful of COVID-19 and used services at significantly lower rates.

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Projected impacts of COVID-19 on household rice consumption in Papua New Guinea (effect of high-income-loss scenario)

For import-dependent countries, global market shocks can have a major impact on domestic food prices. In Papua New Guinea, where half of all households eat rice, 99 percent of the country’s rice supply is imported. Modeling suggests that as the price of rice increased, households may have reduced their rice consumption by at least 15 percent, with the urban poor experiencing the greatest declines.

Source: Cheng and Zhang 2020.

Work resumption rate in February and May 2020

A study of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in China shows that despite the hardships created by COVID-19 lockdowns, many businesses recovered quickly as restrictions eased and the economy rebounded. However, SMEs still face ongoing problems, with government assistance failing to reach many of them.

Net impact on GDP based on two alternative interventions

In South Africa, the government first responded to the country’s economic recession with aggressive interventions to support the incomes of vulnerable groups, increase existing social grants, and help other unemployed people through a temporary relief fund. Many of these programs have since ended, but modeling shows how different interventions to provide income support through three funding mechanisms could affect GDP.

In Ethiopia, poor rural households reported significant shocks from food shortages, rising food prices, travel restrictions, income losses, and livelihood disruptions. Despite these challenges, analyses of the Productive Safety Net Program — the country’s flagship social protection program — suggest that the program played a major role in protecting participating households from food insecurity during the pandemic.

Monthly receipt of rice, 2018 and 2020

Social protection programs in many countries struggled to meet the skyrocketing demand that followed job and income losses. In Bangladesh, where poor households experienced extremely high rates of job loss and food insecurity, the country’s largest food transfer program failed to deliver full allotments of rice to recipients, complicating efforts to ease severe economic impacts.

(Amount that the HHs should have received)

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many challenges for development, but it has also highlighted opportunities for positive change. The disruptions caused by the pandemic have illuminated the close connections between almost all aspects of society, including linkages between food systems, health, and other sectors. New ways of thinking and taking action will be required going forward. As COVID-19 continues to evolve, it will intersect with other food system challenges related to the economy, environment, climate change, inequity, and conflict. To address these broader implications of the pandemic, smarter policies and investments will be needed that steer the recovery toward a sustainable, resilient, and inclusive development path.

Moving forward

Food security & Poverty

Explore topics

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION & VALUE CHAINS

NUTRITION, HEALTH & SOCIAL PROGRAMS

POLICY RESPONSES & IMPLICATIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the incomes, livelihoods, and food security of people around the world. Explore the map to learn more about these impacts and see how well-crafted policies helped build resilience.

Impacts Around the World