Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries
Simulating shocks using a social accounting matrix (SAM) to consider different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa.
Comparative impacts
Recovery policies
Looking ahead
Covid-19 & South Africa
IFPRI researchers are working closely with South African collaborators to measure the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, analyzing different recovery scenarios for the country, and examining potential reform policies towards a new growth path. The team is currently working on a set of three papers funded by GIZ, in partnership with the South African Reserve Bank.
Sherman Robinson, Stephanie Levy, Victor Hernández, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Channing Arndt, Dirk Van Seventer, Marcelo Pleitez
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
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Examining the recovery phase for South Africa following the severely depressed levels of economic activity that occurred in April 2020, with a focus on measures to accelerate recovery in the short term.
Dirk van Seventer, Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, and Sherman Robinson
Recovery from Covid-19 in South Africa
Recovery policies
Synthesizing literature and conducting analysis on South Africa’s recent growth strategy in light of post-COVID-19-shock conditions concluding with suggested reform measures in six areas—energy; skills; urban structure; trade infrastructure; state and private sector; and food systems, nutrition, and health.
Laurence Harris, Channing Arndt, Sherwin Gabriel, and Rob Davies
Towards a new growth path
Looking ahead
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Coming soon
The stringent lockdown in South Africa came into effect on the March 26, 2020 and saw a shutdown of most sectors of the economy. Researchers working under the banner of Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) – a collaborative research and policy-making program between the South African National Treasury, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), South African Revenue Service (SARS) and a number of local and international research organizations – have sought to calculate the cost and impact of the first 21 days of the lockdown, and illustrate possible post-lockdown scenarios. Over 2020, researchers estimate GDP could fall by 5-16 percent and that the economy shrank by a third during the initial nationwide lockdown. This research informed and fostered discussions within the Government of South Africa and contributed to the public debate on the economic effects of the pandemic. This work also provided the South African Reserve Bank and the National Treasury credible insights to inform changes to their macroeconomic forecasts.
An initial analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy
Previous work
Global Food Security article
Covid-19 lockdowns, income distribution, and food security: An analysis for South Africa
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Sherman Robinson, Stephanie Levy, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk van Seventer, Lillian Anderson
Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis
Channing Arndt, Rob Davies, Sherwin Gabriel, Laurence Harris, Konstantin Makrelov, Boipuso Modise, Sherman Robinson, Witness Simbanegavi, Dirk Van Seventer, Lillian Anderson
SA-TIED Working Paper
Assessing the toll of COVID-19 lockdown measures on the South African economy
Channing Arndt, Sherwin Gabriel, Sherman Robinson
BLOG
Who has been hit hardest by South Africa’s lockdown? We found some answers
Channing Arndt, Sherman Robinson, Sherwin Gabriel
Article in The Conversation
Comparative impacts
Recovery policies
Looking ahead
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Blog
Presentation
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Discussion Paper
Discussion Paper
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Discussion Paper
Article
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