In the second annual Risk & Reward survey, Capital One and Inc. once again surveyed U.S. business leaders from across multiple industries, company sizes and regions. The results delivered insights from these leaders in four areas, including their outlook and confidence, growth strategies, technology impact and leadership essentials, and also showed some shifts and similarities from year to year.
Solving for Growth:
— Taira Hall, senior vice president of
embedded finance, FIS
“[For banks that understand] the market is evolving, there are opportunities to not just support your core retail business, but also to find new ways to grow and delight customers.”
LORES
From economic shifts to complicated geopolitics to technological evolution happening at dizzying speed, business leaders today are moving their companies forward in an environment of enormous change and uncertainty. Yet the ambiguity isn’t stopping their growth goals. They are making fast, intuitive decisions, firmly rooted in their belief that it’s their judgment more than external factors that drives their companies’ growth.
BY FASTCO WORKS
The Risk and Reward Equation
Most survey respondents’ companies (77 percent) have seen revenue growth during the last 12 months, with the biggest group (40 percent) increasing revenues by up to 10 percent. Looking ahead for 12 months, 94 percent of companies expect an increase in revenues and 96 percent of companies expect to increase earnings.
The increase in earnings can come from cost cutting or bigger efficiencies. That may be the result of automating tasks by using AI solutions. Most respondents expect their head counts to stay the same (9 percent) or decrease (43 percent). Looking at the year ahead, growth plans are mixed, as well.
Executive Summary
“The economic uncertainty of trade and artificial intelligence (AI) impacts our business significantly, as do lower consumer demand, higher inflation and higher unemployment. Additionally, uncertainty leads to our potential clients staying with current providers instead of making strategic moves for better service,” is how one survey respondent describes the reasons for the stalled growth.
More than two-thirds of companies (67 percent) plan to increase their capital investment during the next 12 months. Where will those investment funds come from? While the economy (including interest rates and inflation) remains the top financial risk, fewer respondents (46 percent) point to it than last year (63 percent). Still, most business leaders choose self-funding (52 percent) as their funding option of choice.
Technology: Intensifying as a force for change
Technology is the dominant force of change, among respondents. They’re prioritizing making significant investments in technology-driven—and especially AI-driven—transformation. Most companies (71 percent) are “out of the gate,” classifying themselves as “advanced beginners,” “intermediate” or “competent.” Large companies are ahead of the smaller ones in their AI deployment.
However, AI’s return on investment remains a holy grail, with just 14 percent of companies currently realizing measurable business value from the technology. And just 1 percent of companies describe themselves as leading in terms of AI deployment, signifying that AI is still a work in progress.
Also contributing to this attitude may be how leaders make decisions: Most business leaders (57 percent) say that business growth is more dependent on their decision making than on external factors, which is similar to last year’s results. And most (76 percent) characterize their decision making as fast rather than deliberate. That includes large organizations, where 81 percent of leaders say their decision making is fast, compared with 72 percent of small-company leaders.
Leadership: Navigating ambiguity
While it may seem counterintuitive given the level of uncertainty and change in the general business landscape, more than half (53 percent) say that decision making is less challenging than it was a year ago. Last year’s biggest uncertainty—the outcome of the presidential election—has been removed from the equation, and business leaders have had several months to adapt to ambiguity.
Risk + Reward Survey 2025
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Illustrations by Peter Oumanski
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Illustrations by Peter Oumanski
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The Risk and Reward Equation
The risk and reward equation
Mixed economic signals include solid GDP growth and low unemployment rate on one hand and a cooling job market on the other. Business leaders’ feelings are also varied. Respondents are less bullish on the business climate than they were last year, with 67 percent describing it as positive for their industries compared with 74 percent last year. At the same time, some business leaders see the complex economic reality as a stimulus for action.
Pursue Growth When the Game Keeps Changing
Even in the midst of uncertainty, business owners are moving forward and expecting growth—on their terms.
51%
of business leaders express confidence about the U.S. economy during the next 12 months, a slightly smaller percentage than last year (55%).
“The economy has slightly negatively impacted the overall industry, but we are taking advantage of competitive weaknesses and gaining market share,” adds another one.
How confident are business leaders about the U.S. economy during the next 12 months?
When it comes to growth in the year ahead, here’s how respondents are playing it:
Growth Playbook 2026
37%
defense—keeping up with the competition or just staying in the game
37%
moderate growth—expecting steady gains
26%
offense—readying for aggressive or transformational growth
“We have a strong line of credit available to us if we need it, but so far, we are self-funded. I hope to keep this going in the next 12 months,” says one survey respondent. “Our focus is on airtight cash flow management,” adds another.
For those who need loans, one survey respondent offers the following advice: “Find the lender who lends the most with single-digit interest, who understands the business and operates without much red tape.”
While smaller companies cannot compete in terms of financial resources or talent, they also have fewer, if any, legacy systems and can be more agile about experimenting with new AI solutions. That means they can see more of an impact from AI right away. Most business leaders (64 percent) believe that AI makes it possible for small and midsize companies to compete with much larger organizations.
77%
of business leaders say their companies will transform in terms of technology infrastructure and solutions.
How do they make those decisions? Most say they are driven more by intuition (62 percent) than by data (38 percent). This year’s findings reinforce our findings from 2024, when business leaders said that they lead with their intuition in business decision making (54 percent). But don’t discount data. Good information reinforces their judgment.
“I allow data to confirm what my gut is telling me. If data is in conflict with my gut, I use a priority system to determine what is truly needed for the decision at hand,” says one survey respondent.
This year, business leaders are operating with less confidence in external factors, such as the economy or the business climate. However, like last year, most are confident in prospects for growth as well as their own decision making in driving it.
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Confidence and outlook: Moderate optimism
To read more about this study, visit Business Resources from Capital One.
