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Sustainability in AI
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Generative AI
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Cloud Hyperscalers
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The Transportation Revolution
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Distributing AI, reducing power
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Generative AI adoption in healthcare
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New use cases in quantum computing
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Satellite connectivity will create more resilient IoT deployments
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AI trends forecast for 2024
Across Informa Tech's Applied Intelligence Group, analysts and editors from Omdia and AI Business have come together to give their insights and predictions on the tech trends that will shape the digital landscape in 2024, and beyond.
Applied Intelligence Group
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Quantum computing vs classical computing
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Stay connected in 2024
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About Informa Tech's Applied Intelligence Group
Transformation Trends
2024
+ Intro by Josh Builta, Senior Director, Omdia
TOP 10 DIGITAL
The past year has seen amazing developments in Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, and the Internet of Things. While each of these technologies are at different stages of maturity, it is increasingly apparent that each will influence, and in some instances completely transform, a wide range of industries. The speed and scale of advancements made in each of these technologies over the last twelve months is staggering. However, it is just the beginning, setting the stage for more breakthroughs in 2024 that will eventually impact enterprises in every corner of the world.
Any discussion on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in 2023 must begin with Generative AI (GenAI). The rapid emergence of this technology is perhaps best exemplified by ChatGPT, a GenAI interface that has gone from a virtual unknown to surpassing 180 million users through August 2023, just nine months after becoming publicly available. Our research indicated enterprises have enthusiastically embraced generative AI: a whopping 38% of respondents in Omdia’s 2024 IT Enterprise Insights reported that they had either already fully adopted generative AI or were implementing it. A further 26% are currently pilot testing generative AI applications. Only 10% said they had no interest in generative AI. Our Omdia AI analyst team is already tracking over 170 different GenAI use cases for enterprises and we expect that number to increase rapidly in the coming year. In part because of the rapid rise of GenAI, governments have increased their focus on potential AI regulation and safety measures. In late October, US President Joe Biden issued an Executive Order on AI aimed at ensuring its “safe, secure, and trustworthy development and use.” That same week, the UK government hosted the AI Safety Summit, where participants from governments, big tech, the research community, and civic groups discussed ways to mitigate risks from advanced AI. Such efforts are likely to increase in 2024. However, at the same time enterprises must implement their own AI governance programs to ensure responsible use of this powerful technology. Organizations must remain vigilant and proactive as the risks from AI will continue to change and evolve, as will AI regulation and standards. While Generative AI has captured an incredible share of attention there have been significant developments in other technologies too. Quantum computing continued to make significant strides in 2023 and the promise of large scale, completely fault tolerant quantum computers is now becoming closer to a reality. For IoT, the release of 5G Redcap, a cellular protocol purpose built for Internet of Thing (IoT) devices, is quickly approaching. This technology aims to reduce the complexity and cost associated with IoT and could serve as a key accelerator in connecting billions of endpoints throughout the world. IoT is also seeing increased adoption of eSIM technology, which will provide greater flexibility and security for IoT applications. These and other developments are clear signals that technological innovation is inevitable. In 2024 we also expect more examples of convergence of technologies, for example AI and cybersecurity. Whether the topic is analysis or automation, cybersecurity is now informed by AI: its various forms play growing roles in the software and services of cybersecurity. Perhaps because of AI's ubiquity in cybersecurity, questions about the roles it should play, and how it will play those roles, are being asked by many inside and outside the industry. The world of technology is changing everyday and has the potential to quickly transform industries around the world. In preparation for 2024, Omdia analysts along with editors from AI Business and IoT World Today have produced an overview of the upcoming trends set to influence the technology ecosystem that are a must-know for anyone operating in the digital world.
Senior Director Research, Applied Intelligence, Omdia
Josh Builta
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Satellite connectivity to create resilient IoT deployments
Quantum computing vs classical computers
> TREND #1
HOME
Customer appeal – These initiatives allow companies to highlight their commitment to environmental responsibility and improve their brand visibility on this subject. Employee retention/attraction – Multiple studies shows that employees and employment seekers find environmentally sustainable companies are more attractive employer. Financial incentives – These initiatives often uncover ways to do things on a more efficient basis, as well as avoiding financial penalties due to government or industry mandates around environmental sustainability.
For enterprises and environmental sustainability, there is a clear cost to doing nothing – this can impact stakeholders; from investors to customers to employee retention, and even the threat of litigation. Given these risks, creating a more sustainable business is a must, and IoT will clearly need to be part of those solutions.”
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of respondents rated in the formative phases for technology-operations
73%
of respondents rated in the advanced phases for organization
55%
Josh Builta, Senior Director, Research, Omdia
TREND 1: Sustainability in AI
TREND 2
The attention around environmental sustainability continues to grow. Individuals, communities, and governments are all increasing their sustainability efforts as a way to improve the world we live in today and ensure the best future for children. At the same time, more enterprises worldwide are seeing the importance of this issue and putting increased emphasis on it for a variety of reasons including:
Technology is playing a big role in this effort, with the unique combination of IoT and AI in particular is delivering results in areas like waste management, smart farming, and energy conservation in factories and buildings. Omdia research shows that enterprises recognize the importance of technology in these efforts with a recent survey indicating 75% of enterprises stating that IoT was a key component to their sustainability initiatives. It is no surprise therefore that a growing number of AI and IoT technology vendors are responding and offering a range of products and services to enable customers to reach their sustainability goals. Our Omdia team has compiled a rich set of data and analysis on this topic and plans to do more in 2024. Our goal is to inform enterprises of the wide range of AI and IoT-powered applications available, while at the same time inform the vendor community of the growing opportunities in this market.
> TREND #2
Generative AI in the Enterprise
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Next Trend
of respondents rated in the advanced phases for strategy
68%
Natalia Nygren Modjeska, Research Director, Omdia
In 2023 enterprises enthusiastically embraced Generative AI (GenAI): a whopping 38% report* that they have fully adopted it (13%) or are implementing (25%). A further 26% are currently pilot testing. Only 10% report no interest. Some early adopters are scaling their deployments, and we already hear early success stories of substantial financial returns.
TREND 2: Generative AI
Previous Trend
TREND 3
TREND 1
These successes are enabled by a large and rapidly evolving ecosystem which is churning out new tools, foundation and fine-tuned models and pushing boundaries of compute, much of this innovation happening at break-neck speed. Meanwhile software vendors are actively integrating GenAI into their enterprise and line-of-business offerings. Many challenges still need to be addressed for GenAI to deliver true business benefits. Some of these enterprises have struggled with for decades. They range from data quality, availability, access and governance to overall low data and AI literacy, lack of technical skills and limited budgets. Concerns about security, explainability and transparency of large language models and regulatory compliance along with high compute costs are also top of mind. To overcome these challenges, we are expecting a new wave of investment in data quality, governance and management, responsible AI tooling, internal policies and governance, and upskilling and reskilling of the workforce. As we are bracing for new waves of GenAI innovation, experimentation, disruption and anxiety in 2024, Omdia will continue to deliver cutting-edge market data, in-depth reports, rich, insightful and topical analyses and strategic advice, to help vendors and buyers better understand each other and affect equitable and sustainable business and societal transformation with generative AI.
*IT Enterprise Insights: IoT, Cloud, AI, 5G, and Sustainability – 2024 Survey
> TREND #3
We’ve seen the number of device suppliers in IoT shrink, as some of those capabilities have been taken on by larger device providers and there has been consolidation in the market there with some providers buying other providers. We’ve also seen on the connectivity side that orchestration and connecting to other connectivity management platforms as well as cloud hyperscale platforms is becoming increasingly important. Despite the fact the investment environment is affecting the number of merges and acquisitions in the space, we’re also continuing to see enterprises spend at a healthy rate and increasing the amount of spending in IoT, and we do expect to see that continue into 2024.
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By the end of 2023 the idea of a single connectivity chip will be for very specific applications - in general multiples will be the way forward.”
Andy Brown, Practice Lead, IoT, Omdia
TREND 3: Cloud Hyperscalers
Transporation Revolution
TREND 4
We’re expecting to see some really interesting trends as we head into 2024, and one of the key things will be consolidation in the market. With the growth in cloud hyperscalers, we’ve seen a shrinking in of application enablement platform providers as many of those application platform capabilities have been taken on by those hyperscalers.
> TREND #4
We’re looking at how things are moving electronically and digitally, but what we will see in the next year and beyond is how things are moving in the air. We’re moving through electric flying vehicles, eVTOLs, electrical vertical take-off and landing vehicles, and they do not require runways. Those coming out in 2024 are called Ultralights, and they don’t require a pilot’s license. Beyond that, we’re going to see air taxis, aerial transportation, and drone movement of goods. We’ve got airlines all ordering and preordering these flying vehicles. Another development is around a vertical electric take off jet. Next year you’re going to see flying vehicles like you have never seen before! Long term that’s where quantum computing comes in, as it will be required to keep these things in the air and organized. This is a longer-term trend but that’s what is on the horizon. We’re going to be looking up!
We expect in 2023 to see the first kilowatt chip. As a result, there is a need for a new direction, but the biggest challenge is convincing enterprises - especially software developers - they have to change.”
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We’re on the verge of a revolution in transportation!
Chuck Martin, Editorial Director, AI Business and IoT World Today
Edward Wilford, Analyst, Omdia
AI Hardware in 2023
TREND 4: The Transportation Revolution
Distributing AI
TREND 5
> TREND #5
Digital transformation and automation is driving manufacturing
Edward Wilford, Senior Principal Analyst, Omdia
I’ve had some really interesting conversations about power. What we’re seeing is AI moving from the network from the cloud, to the network edge, and from the network edge to the data edge. As we move down there is a reduction in power because we are getting focused. We're saying we don’t need to bring the entire model with us every step of the way, and as that happens there is a knock on effect that actually gives us sustainability as a sort of bonus.
Enriching Data Streams in Manufacturing
TREND 5: Distributing AI, reducing power
In 2023 manufacturers will focus on AI adoption by converging OT-IT where improvements in the ability to predict, forecast and make real-time decisions will be levered to unlock new insights.”
AI and Healthcare
TREND 6
Transportation Revolution
We need less power, because we have less power available, we use less, and everything that we can move from the cloud to the network edge, eventually pushing on down to the data edge means that we leave less footprint everywhere we go. I think that’s a trend that is going to continue and going to accelerate which will leave some questions as to what do we in the cloud if its going to be just for cloud native applications. If we can offload as much as possible to the edge we’re getting a bonus in power profile that we didn’t necessarily ask for but we’re going to take because that’s obviously a huge win. Even with plugged in equipment the less power we consume the happier we are, and the more people are going to begin to notice their electricity bills are going to be a major issue even with plugs in, a thing that hadn’t even been considered a few short years ago and battery devices are going to have that AI capability. Keep pushing that further and further down closer to the data point and that’s going to have a lot of effect for IoT networks and AI entrance as well.
> TREND #6
In 2023, use of AI in enterprise will explode, and proper governance frameworks, such as AI risk management and KPIs, will become critical.”
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Four key areas of impact in 2023
One of the emerging trends we are seeing in healthcare is the adoption of generative AI, which holds tremendous potential within the industry, all the way from drug discovery through to care delivery. There are a lot of concerns and risks associated with deploying generative AI, so we really see early adoption within low-risk administrative tasks. A lot of the issues need to be resolved or addressed before we see widespread adoption of generative AI. Primarily this is around accuracy of data. We see a lot of fine tuning of some of the LLM’s on proprietary data or sector specific data which helps to support accuracy. Bringing in experts also helps reinforcement learning to improve accuracy as well.
TREND 6: The adoption of generative AI in healthcare
Andrew Brosnan, Principal Analyst, Omdia
Quantum Computing
TREND 7
25-50%
some estimates suggest doctors spend 25-50% of their time on administrative tasks
There is a huge issue in the healthcare industry around the administrative burden, some estimates suggest doctors spend 25-50% of their time on administrative tasks and what these models can do is go through a lot of unstructured text and help to alleviate some of those administrative burdens that’s facing the industry at the moment and this will free up time for doctors and other healthcare professionals to spend more time with patients rather than on administrative tasks. This is an emerging trend that’s already in progress with a lot of experimentation going on, but it is still probably 6-12 months before we start seeing more widespread adoption.
> TREND #7
Quantum computing is going to be involved in a load of new use cases in 2024. The kinds of businesses that can really benefit are those with complex optimization problems. These could be in fields such as transport, manufacturing or the creation of new molecules for things like new materials, chemistry or for pharmaceuticals. This will be supported by advances in the technology. We’re seeing experimentation with error correction on quantum computers, plus an increase in qubits and a whole different variety of types of qubits. These will all be put to use solving problems that we haven’t been able to so far and businesses are in a great position to get involved and find out about quantum computing now.
There is no doubt that eSIM is changing technology, and provides greater carrier flexibility along with enhanced security.”
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Berenice Baker, Editor, Enter Quantum, Applied Intelligence
eUICC technology is showing the first wave of growth
TREND 7: Quantum computing will deliver new use cases
Satellite Connectivity
TREND 8
> TREND #8
For 2024 I think we’ll be seeing satellite IoT coming into view. We will be seeing launches of new satellite IoT constellations. While we will not see an explosion of connections for 2024, we’re seeing the infrastructure being put into place. As we move towards the end of 2024 and looking at 2025 we will also start to see some adoption of satellite connectivity within specific verticals including automotive.
The need for real-time processing and taking quick actions based on insights generated is leading the growth of edge intelligence in IoT. We estimate that in 2023 the majority of IoT deployments will have intelligence at the edge for faster processing.”
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Edge intelligence and cloud will be at the center of IoT deployments in 2023 and beyond
John Canali, Principal Analyst, Omdia
AI Trends 2024
TREND 9
TREND 8: Satellite connectivity and IoT deployments
> TREND #9
This is also the year that generative AI began to grow up. Companies have started to kick its tires and see if the technology is feasible for the enterprise. What they are finding is that generative AI still needs to mature. The risks are well known by now: hallucinations, biases, security vulnerabilities, privacy breaches, and potential copyright infringement. Big tech companies are racing to solve these issues because billions of dollars of potential revenue are on the line. With this context, here are the trends predicted to emerge in 2024: Trend #1: AI models will be multimodal This year, ChatGPT gained the ability to ‘see, hear and speak.’ It can also draw images and search the web in real time. A new acronym is here, Large Multimodal Models or LMM. We expect to see more multimodal models emerging in the next 12 months. Trend #2 Custom language models will take off. Companies will fine-tune foundation models with their own proprietary data to develop a language model that protects their information and also serves their unique needs. Open AI recently unveiled GPT Builder, which will let companies develop their own custom ChatGPT. The startup also said it will start to work with companies to develop custom models. Trend #3: Generative AI costs will come down Open AI, as the leading company in generative AI, just announced that its most powerful language model, GPT-4 Turbo, is 3 times cheaper to run than its predecessor, GPT-4. Trend #4: AI coding tools will become a mainstay of developers According to GitHub, 92% of developers reported using AI-based coding tools inside and outside of work over the past year. GitHub introduced its GitHub Copilot in 2022. Trend #5: Global regulation to pick up the pace U.S. President Joe Biden issued his first executive order on AI regulations and the U.K. held its first global AI Safety Summit. Meanwhile, the EU is on the cusp of passing its comprehensive AI Act. These are indeed exciting times in AI and generative AI, and what we can expect to see in 2024 and beyond.
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Deborah Yao, Editor, AI Business
Human in the loop AI
TREND 9: AI Trends forecast for 2024
TREND 10
It’s been a year since OpenAI released ChatGPT, and how the world of AI has changed! A new computing platform is emerging that will redefine the way humans interact with computers.
> TREND #10
The key question for quantum computing is when (and if) it will deliver an advantage over classical computing. There were relevant developments in 2023 and Omdia will be looking out for announcements in 2024 that will give the industry an idea of how the quest for “quantum advantage” will develop in the coming years. In June 2023, IBM Quantum announced with partners that it had performed a physical simulation on its QCs, for a problem of commercial interest, that was beyond the reach of even classical supercomputers. This announcement quickly became controversial because several classical computer science research groups shortly demonstrated approximated simulations that did seemingly match the exact simulation made by IBM Quantum. This interplay between quantum computing and classical computing is not new and represents a healthy spur to innovation for both technologies. Certainly, so-called “quantum inspired” computational techniques have improved the performance of classical computers in certain problem domains in recent years. The details of these upcoming systems will give us important clues about how the quest for quantum advantage will play out over the next several years.
Join Sam at Applied Intelligence Live! this September
Could the quantum advantage be announced in 2023?
Sam Lucero, Chief Analyst, Quantum Computing, Omdia
TREND 10: Quantum computing vs classical computers
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In 2024, QC vendors will introduce systems with more qubits, these qubits will be more resilient to noise and errors, and these systems will enable larger circuits (i.e., programs) to run. While we are still many years away from fully error-corrected quantum computers, it is likely that even these increasingly robust near-term systems, combined with improving error suppression and error mitigation techniques, will enable the industry to start showing meaningful advantages over classical computers.
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