PETER BENTLEY Global Head of Fixed Income
We expect winners and losers to emerge as AI infrastructure spending reshapes bond indices. AI‑driven capital spending is accelerating at an extraordinary pace, and we expect the technology sector to become the single largest source of issuance in the US investment‑grade market – ultimately overtaking financials. The scale of funding required to build out AI infrastructure is unprecedented: data‑centre construction, grid expansion, power generation, fibre networks, towers, cooling systems, and new semiconductor capacity are all triggering a multi‑year financing cycle. Crucially, this wave of borrowing is structurally different from past tech‑related issuance. Today's investment is tied to essential, revenue‑generating, often contracted or regulated infrastructure, not speculative moonshots. That shift gives investors access to more stable cashflows, clearer visibility, and attractive risk‑adjusted returns. As this cycle deepens, AI‑linked supply will broaden and mature, reshaping the bond indices and redefining the role of technology within the wider credit universe. We think this is a huge opportunity to sift the winners from the losers, and we’re taking full advantage of this for our clients.
GARETH COLESMITH Head of Global MACRO RESEARCH
We expect French government bonds to underperform in the months ahead. France is trading short-term political survival for long-term fiscal decay. Suspending pension reforms may keep the government afloat today, but it deepens the deficit and does nothing to stem the sovereign risk tomorrow. Investors may remain wary of French government bonds for some time – or at least until both political and economic stability are restored. This leaves us comfortable with an underweight in France vs other major European markets.
ADAM WHITELEY
Head of Global CREDIT
Recent corporate earnings have reaffirmed our view of the strong corporate fundamentals, underpinned by resilient profit growth.
However, a notable theme across corporate results has been rising capital expenditure. We expect 2026 to be affected by borrowing for capital expenditure and merger and acquisition activity, driving a significant increase in issuance, most notably from AI-related expenditure. We believe investor demand will remain robust in 2026, with a focus on security selection and relative-value trades, as investment grade credit offers a meaningful yield pickup over cash.
HARVEY BRADLEY Co-Head of Global Rates Investment
PETER BENTLEY Global Head of Fixed Income
We expect winners and losers to emerge as AI infrastructure spending reshapes bond indices. AI‑driven capital spending is accelerating at an extraordinary pace, and we expect the technology sector to become the single largest source of issuance in the US investment‑grade market – ultimately overtaking financials. The scale of funding required to build out AI infrastructure is unprecedented: data‑centre construction, grid expansion, power generation, fibre networks, towers, cooling systems, and new semiconductor capacity are all triggering a multi‑year financing cycle. Crucially, this wave of borrowing is structurally different from past tech‑related issuance. Today's investment is tied to essential, revenue‑generating, often contracted or regulated infrastructure, not speculative moonshots. That shift gives investors access to more stable cashflows, clearer visibility, and attractive risk‑adjusted returns. As this cycle deepens, AI‑linked supply will broaden and mature, reshaping the bond indices and redefining the role of technology within the wider credit universe. We think this is a huge opportunity to sift the winners from the losers, and we’re taking full advantage of this for our clients.
GARETH COLESMITH Head of Global MACRO RESEARCH
We expect French government bonds to underperform in the months ahead.
France is trading short-term political survival for long-term fiscal decay. Suspending pension reforms may keep the government afloat today, but it deepens the deficit and does nothing to stem the sovereign risk tomorrow. Investors may remain wary of French government bonds for some time – or at least until both political and economic stability are restored. This leaves us comfortable with an underweight in France vs other major European markets.
ADAM WHITELEY
Head of Global CREDIT
Recent corporate earnings have reaffirmed our view of the strong corporate fundamentals, underpinned by resilient profit growth. However, a notable theme across corporate results has been rising capital expenditure. We expect 2026 to be affected by borrowing for capital expenditure and merger and acquisition activity, driving a significant increase in issuance, most notably from AI-related expenditure. We believe investor demand will remain robust in 2026, with a focus on security selection and relative-value trades, as investment grade credit offers a meaningful yield pickup over cash.
HARVEY BRADLEY Co-Head of Global Rates Investment
PETER BENTLEY Global Head of Fixed Income
We expect winners and losers to emerge as AI infrastructure spending reshapes bond indices. AI‑driven capital spending is accelerating at an extraordinary pace, and we expect the technology sector to become the single largest source of issuance in the US investment‑grade market – ultimately overtaking financials. The scale of funding required to build out AI infrastructure is unprecedented: data‑centre construction, grid expansion, power generation, fibre networks, towers, cooling systems, and new semiconductor capacity are all triggering a multi‑year financing cycle. Crucially, this wave of borrowing is structurally different from past tech‑related issuance. Today's investment is tied to essential, revenue‑generating, often contracted or regulated infrastructure, not speculative moonshots. That shift gives investors access to more stable cashflows, clearer visibility, and attractive risk‑adjusted returns. As this cycle deepens, AI‑linked supply will broaden and mature, reshaping the bond indices and redefining the role of technology within the wider credit universe. We think this is a huge opportunity to sift the winners from the losers, and we’re taking full advantage of this for our clients.
GARETH COLESMITH Head of Global MACRO RESEARCH
We expect AI infrastructure spending to reshape bond indices.
We expect accelerating AI‑driven capital spending to make the technology sector the single largest source of US investment‑grade bond issuance. The scale of funding required is unprecedented: data‑centre construction, grid expansion, power generation, fibre networks, towers, cooling systems, and semiconductor capacity are all triggering a multi‑year financing cycle. Crucially, this wave of borrowing is structurally different from past tech‑related issuance as it is tied to essential revenue‑generating infrastructure. That shift gives investors access to more stable cashflows, clearer visibility, and potentially attractive risk‑adjusted returns. We believe this is an opportunity to sift the winners from the losers which we’re looking to take full advantage for our clients.
ADAM WHITELEY
Head of Global CREDIT
Recent corporate earnings have reaffirmed our view of the strong corporate fundamentals, underpinned by resilient profit growth. However, a notable theme across corporate results has been rising capital expenditure. We expect 2026 to be affected by borrowing for capital expenditure and merger and acquisition activity, driving a significant increase in issuance, most notably from AI-related expenditure. We believe investor demand will remain robust in 2026, with a focus on security selection and relative-value trades, as investment grade credit offers a meaningful yield pickup over cash.
PETER BENTLEY Global Head of Fixed Income