2024
RISK OUTLOOK
2024 PREDICTIONS
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STORM WARNING
RUNNING ON EMPTY
A DIFFERENT PLANET
ALL GROWN UP
CONTRACT CHANGES
Climate change comes home
Permacrisis takes its toll
Global instability deepens
AI brings new risks and opportunities
Navigating the new employment relationship
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STORM WARNING: CLIMATE CHANGE COMING HOME
THE ISSUE IS NOW
CLIMATE CHANGE
Not only are organisations finding they are directly impacted by climate-related events, governments and regulatory bodies are increasingly introducing climate-related regulations and reporting requirements, and investors are placing more focus on environmental, social and governance factors.
"Climate change exacerbates security risks and instability: whether it’s food insecurity and systemic unemployment making people vulnerable to extremist recruitment, or climate effects exacerbating immigration outflows due to destruction of livelihoods. All can cause challenges for governments and organisations in neighboring, transit, and destination countries." Gareth Lewis, ESG Director, International SOS
72
62
56
55
-27
-36
-40
-44
45
26
16
11
Extreme Weather Events
Natural Disasters
New Pandemics
Environmental Threats
Infectious Diseases
Perceived Risks - Health
How likely do you think it is that the following issues will have a significant impact on your business and/or your people in the next 12 months?
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Unlikely
Likely
RUNNING ON EMPTY: THE PERMA CRISIS TAKES ITS TOLL
PERMACRISIS
BURNOUT INCREASE
When the overlapping shocks of previous crises struck, employees rose to the occasion, particularly those involved in organisational emergency response, maintaining services and supporting each other, but now crisis fatigue has set in.
"Two or three years ago we used to see levels of burnout between 11% and 18%, now we are seeing levels between 20% and 30% and many reporting levels of burnout of 50%." Dr Rachel Lewis, Managing Partner, Affinity Health at Work
80
41
Proportion of respondents who say their organisation's employees or operations are likely to be impacted by stress and burnout in the next 12 months.
Proportion of respondents who say their organisation is unprepared to respond to or mitigate employee stress and burnout. n=675
%
A DIFFERENT PLANET: GLOBAL INSTABILITY DEEPENS
In a time of such geopolitical mutability and fast-developing local risk, organisations need up-to-the-minute intelligence at country, region and city level that they can rely on to protect workers and safeguard business continuity.
INSTABILITY
"Businesses need to gain intelligence on changing risk levels anywhere they are vulnerable, partnering with experts with local competence where necessary, then zoom out to get an overview of global threats, to prepare strategies for mitigation." Giles Hill, Chair of Security Advisory Board, International SOS
PREPAREDNESS
74
Proportion of respondents that believe geopolitical tensions will seriously impact their people or operations in the next 12 months. n=675
38
Proportion of respondents who believe their organisation is not equipped to respond to or mitigate effects of social or civil unrest. n=675
ALL GROWN UP: AI BRINGS NEW RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES
The increased accessibility, utility and accuracy of the new generation of generative chatbots has propelled artificial intelligence (AI) from the stuff of science fiction straight into our web browsers. AI has awe-inspiring potential to create a new industrial revolution, but it comes with risks, potentially catastrophic.
1 in 5
Just over one in five respondents disagree with the statement "nowadays, it is getting harder to find verified, trusted risk intelligence."
Around Half
Say they have been exposed to disinformation about health and security in their work.
CONTRACT CHANGES: NAVIGATING THE NEW EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP
The employment relationship is in flux. A combination of demographic and experiential shifts has changed what employees expect of the organisations they work for and only those employers who recognise the importance of the change are likely to retain the talent they need to weather uncertain times.
NEW DUTY OF CARE
"Employers who prioritise and treat their employees as people rather than just productive entities and who care for their emotional, physical, and even financial wellbeing, stand to profit most." Paul Wolcott, President at Great Place To Work
EMPLOYEE WELLBEING
77
Of respondents that agree "safeguarding the physical and mental wellbeing of our employees is a board-level concern."
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