Labor and Industry Trends

When good news is bad news

The December BLS jobs data is consistent with the pattern seen throughout 2024 in which the labor markets remained healthy, inflation descreased and recession fears eased. In hindsight, 2024 showed all the signs of experiencing a "soft landing" with a slightly cooling economy and inflation in line with the Federal Reserve's goal. Friday's jobs report showed that hiring continued at a healthy pace, potentially too high, indicating the economy is running "hot." This dampens expectations that the Fed will ease pressure on the economy by cutting rates again in the near future. Several economists commented that the stronger-than-expected labor numbers suggests that the Federal Reserve may not consider lowering interest rates again until at least June, and that it is possible we see no U.S. rate cuts at all during the entirety of 2025. So, while perhaps "bad news" for the equity markets, the December BLS data strongly suggests that the underlying job markets remain strong.

Beyond the numbers

There are several factors to consider beyond the headline numbers, particularly around the highly skilled technology labor dynamics. Many companies deferred technology spending in 2023 and 2024, anticipating a recession that never materialized. Additionally, the December numbers showed net adds in technologists, reversing a recent relatively flat trend in this group. There is an old Wall Street saying; "Economists have predicted ten of the last two recessions!" As clients enter 2025, the economy is in relatively good shape, with short-term recession risks diminished (for now), the election behind us and a growing backlog of mission-critical projects that were deferred over the last two years. As we all know from experience, the preponderance of financial, travel and many other day-to-day client/customer interactions now take place in the digital realm. Thus, clients have limited optionality to keep their digital interfaces up to date to remain competitive. Kforce is ideally positioned to help you meet these challenges. As you finalize technology plans for 2025, partnering with Kforce experts will ensure you are well-prepared to tackle key technology initiatives.

by Michael Blackman

CURRENT LABOR INDICATORS

4.1

Total Unemployment

256,000

Total Job Gains

3.9

Wage Growth (YoY)

Published JANUARY 14, 2025

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

DECEMBER 2024

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Learn More About Kforce

As Chief Corporate Development Officer at Kforce, Michael Blackman, a 33-year Kforce veteran, is the primary focal point for the firm with the Wall Street and financial communities. He is regularly sought out by leading economists for his perspectives on the economy and labor markets, and he contributes to a number of key proprietary economic publications.

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Job Creation by Industry

DECEMBER ONE-MONTH NET CHANGE

Health care & social assistance

69.5K

Retail trade

Leisure & hospitality

Professional & business services

Financial activities

Information

43.4K

43K

28K

13K

10K