Labor and Industry Trends

Timing is everything

Many indicators, particularly the latest inflation data, point to the Federal Reserve's policies effectively lowering inflation to the point where they can begin to cut interest rates. Simply stated, the economy is indeed cooling to a degree, as was The Fed's intent to be able to start lowering interest rates. Last week at the August meeting, they elected to leave interest rates intact. Fast forward to Friday's BLS labor report, which came in a tad light, and the stock market threw a tier one tantrum! The good news, underneath all the "noise" (almost always exaggerated for good or bad in an election year), the labor markets remain intact. Particularly in the higher skill technology skill sets, demand remains stable.

What does this mean?

On our recent Q2 earnings call, Kforce Chief Executive Officer Joe Liberatore summarized; "While all economic cycles behave a bit differently, what remains clear is that the broad and strategic uses of technology, including the early-stage technology revolution associated with AI, will continue to evolve and play an increasingly instrumental role in powering businesses." Over the long term, we believe AI and other innovative technologies will follow the long historic pattern of driving demand for, rather than replacing technology resources, and that the pace of change will only continue to accelerate. Our clients remain focused on critical technology initiatives and modernization efforts. We have established a foundation of sourcing highly skilled quality talent, at scale, to help world class companies solve complex problems and competitively transform their businesses for more than 60 years. As technology has evolved over the decades, including recent advancements around AI, we have evolved with the changing skillset demands of our clients."

by Michael Blackman

CURRENT LABOR INDICATORS

February Jobs One-Month Net Change

4.3

Total Unemployment

114,000

Total Job Gains

3.6

Wage Growth (YoY)

77.8K

74K

67K

35.5K

29K

25K

16.4K

15.4K

13K

1.1K

-9K

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Leisure + Hospitality

Health care + Social assistance

Retail trade

Government

Professional + Business services

Construction

Mining + Logging

Financial activities

Manufacturing

Transportation + Warehousing

Information

Chart: Gabriel Cortes / CNBC

Published AUGUST 6, 2024

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

JULY 2024

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Michael Blackman

Learn More About Kforce

As Chief Corporate Development Officer at Kforce, Michael Blackman, a 32 year Kforce veteran, is the primary focal point for the firm with the Wall Street and financial communities. He is regularly sought out by leading economists for his perspectives on the economy and labor markets, and he contributes to a number of key proprietary economic publications.

CHIEF CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT OFFICER

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U.S. Unemployment Rate

JUNE 2022 THROUGH JUNE 2024

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jun '24

May '24

Apr '24

Mar '24

Feb '24

Jan '24

Dec '23

Nov '23

Oct '23

Sep '23

Aug '23

Jul '23

Jun '23

May '23

Apr '23

Mar '23

Feb '23

Jan '23

Dec '22

Nov '22

Oct '22

Sep '22

Aug '22

Jul '22

Jul '24

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%