The World—and the Economy—at War

If you’re not agile,
you’ll die.”

The Problem:

Uncertainty isn’t going away, but many

leaders refuse to deal with it.

The Solution:

Become more agile. Simple

to state, hard to execute.

Let’s start with the good news. Despite years of dire predictions, there’s no global depression. Stock markets have remained robust.  Inflation in most parts of the world seems to be tamed.

But look at the many other factors that can affect business, and you wonder how a lot of CEOs get out of bed. For 2024 alone, the list of calamities they need to monitor includes two very visible wars, a decelerating economy in China, a massive US election, major natural disasters in Eastern Europe and Asia, significant antitrust actions in the US and Europe, and massive swings in global stock and bond markets. Some handle all of this by putting in long hours of work. Others try to stick to what they know best. “A lot of CEOs keep their heads down,” says Korn Ferry’s Dotlich, who has authored bestsellers on leadership and is a close confidant of CEOs at some of the world’s biggest firms. “They figure all that uncertainty is just too overwhelming.”

A lot of CEOs keep their heads down. They figure all that uncertainty is just 

too  overwhelming.”

There isn’t a CEO, of course, who doesn’t know how much the COVID-19 outbreak completely upended everything—but it doesn’t take a pandemic to cause corporate chaos. In 2021, a cargo ship went aground in the Suez Canal and caused more than 300 other ships behind it to be stranded. The total loss in trade was an estimated $9.6 billion a day. Disasters, natural and man-made, are increasingly frequent too; the world experiences about 400 annually, according to the International Monetary Fund—twice as many as it did a generation ago. Few CEOs can survive without adding all of this to the planning pile—not to mention taking into account such worries as inflation, recession fears, and volatile markets.

Experts say the best CEOs realize they can’t take this all on alone, so they build trust and empower their people. The best ones also increase flexibility—their own and their company’s—to a whole new level. “If you’re not agile, you’ll die,” Filler says. Simple advice, to be sure, but experts say it’s surprising how little many leaders seem to be adjusting. In a Korn Ferry survey, only two-thirds of them listed agility and openness to change as critical, while only about one-third said their organization needed agility.

Agile leaders move with speed and boldness, experts say. They plan for future scenarios to limit potential concerns, build capacity to shift people to where they’re most needed, and provide resources and support to promote employee health and well-being. In periods of uncertainty, CEOs have to be both forceful and empathetic, acknowledging the problem but also reminding workers what needs to be done. “At the end of the day, after all, CEOs are hired to handle disruption,” says Dotlich.

World Uncertainty Index

The IMF tracks usage of the word “uncertain” in economic reports across 143 countries, suggesting when CEOs are facing volatile times.

Source: IMF

Global inflation spikes

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2004

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2024

Pandemic

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Financial

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Diversify perspectives:

Avoid groupthink and challenge

pre-conceived notions.

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steps

Uncertainty Around Uncertainty

The globe is about 50 percent more uncertain than it was at the beginning of the 21st century, according to the IMF’s World Uncertainty Index. How can leaders prepare for something that might or might not

happen—or can’t even be imagined?

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