2019 global insurance trends and forecasts
Our 2019 analysis of McKinsey’s Global Insurance Pools database offers a detailed look at the insurance industry by region and line of business.
Snapshot of the global industry
Overall, the global industry grew by more than 4 percent in 2017, the same level as its compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2016. Total premiums reached €4.7 trillion. At
the regional level, Asia–Pacific (APAC) expanded by 8 percent from 2016 to 2017, the
highest growth rate, followed by the Americas and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa)
with 4 and 1 percent, respectively.
the regional level, Asia–Pacific (APAC) expanded by 8 percent from 2016 to 2017, the
highest growth rate, followed by the Americas and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa)
with 4 and 1 percent, respectively.
Life insurance
Health insurance
P&C insurance
accounted for 46 percent of global premiums in 2017 and saw growth of 3.2 percent from 2016 to 2017.
continues to be the fastest-growing segment: it achieved 5 percent year-over-year growth in 2017 and makes up about 23 percent of global insurance premiums.
grew by 5 percent from 2016 to 2017 while maintaining its market share of 30 percent of global premiums.
The global insurance industry, led by life and P&C, increased growth in 2017.
1
Premiums, €, billions
4,683
4.7%
4,492
Total
1,400
Asia and Pacific
1,298
GWP growth
Life
Europe, Middle East, and Africa
1,267
1,254
Health
P&C
2,016
2
Americas
1,940
3
2016
2017
1
Excluded Venezuela as data is skewed because of hyperinflation.2017 figures estimated based on Q3/H1/full year reporting.2016 average fixed exchange rate used.
2
2
3
A closer look at different regions
Emerging markets contributed 43 percent of the growth in total insurance from 2010 to 2017. Considering a more recent time frame of 2014 to 2017, the share of the total contribution from emerging markets has increased to about 57 percent, while mature regions such as Western Europe and developed APAC saw their share decrease during this period.
North America and developing APAC have contributed ~73% to the total premium growth from 2010 to 2017.
1
Premiums, €, billions
Life
Nonlife
2010
1,768
1,738
3,506
2017
2,171
2,512
4,683
Africa
Africa
Developed APAC
2%
Developing APAC
Eastern Europe
Share of total growth
Latin America
Middle East
Life: 14 billionNonlife: 7 billion
North America
Countries included:
Western Europe
Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Morocco, South Africa, and Tunisia
1
Average fixed exchange rate for 2016 used.
Opportunities for growth and profitability
Emerging markets such as developing APAC, Latin America, and Africa recorded high profitability and premium growth from 2014 to 2017. Meanwhile, North America has been the worst-performing region by profitability, as its insurance industry struggled with severe losses from natural catastrophes in 2017. Natural calamities in China and Japan have also hindered profitability in the developed APAC region.
Latin America and developing APAC offer tremendous growth opportunities.
Profitability 2014–16, by region, average after-tax RoE, %
Mature markets
Emerging markets
25
EasternEurope
Latin America
DevelopedAPAC
Africa
1
Developing APAC
10
10(industry average)
North America
Western Europe
-5
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
(Global GDP) 4
5 (industry average)
2
GPW growth, 2014–16, CAGR, %
1
Venezuela excluded as data is skewed because of hyperinflation.Average fixed exchange rate for 2016 used, nominal figures used.
2
To sustain growth, it’s critical for insurers to have visibility into variations across regions and lines of business.
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Life
P&C and health
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