2019 global insurance trends and forecasts
Our 2019 analysis of McKinsey’s Global Insurance Pools database offers a detailed look at the insurance industry by region and line of business.
Snapshot of the global industry
Overall, the global industry grew by more than 4 percent in 2017, the same level as its compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2016. Total premiums reached €4.7 trillion. At
the regional level, Asia–Pacific (APAC) expanded by 8 percent from 2016 to 2017, the
highest growth rate, followed by the Americas and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa)
with 4 and 1 percent, respectively.
Life insurance
accounted for 46 percent of global premiums in 2017 and saw growth of 3.2 percent from 2016
to 2017.
Health insurance
continues to be the fastest-growing segment: it achieved 5 percent year-over-year growth in
2017 and makes up about
23 percent of global insurance premiums.
P&C insurance
grew by 5 percent from 2016 to 2017 while maintaining its market share of 30 percent of global premiums.
The global insurance industry, led by life and P&C, increased growth in 2017.
Premiums, €, billions
1
Total
Life
Health
P&C
4.7%
GWP growth
Asia and Pacific
Europe, Middle East, and Africa
Americas
2
1,940
2,016
1,254
1,267
1,298
1,400
4,492
4,683
2016
2017
3
Excluded Venezuela as data is skewed because of hyperinflation.
2017 figures estimated based on Q3/H1/full year reporting.
2016 average fixed exchange rate used.
3.2%
GWP growth
2016
2017
3
2,104
2,171
5.3%
GWP growth
1,046
1,102
2016
2017
3
5.1%
GWP growth
1,342
1,410
2016
2017
3
A closer look at different regions
Emerging markets contributed 43 percent of the growth in total insurance from 2010 to 2017. Considering a more recent time frame of 2014 to 2017, the share of the total contribution from emerging markets has increased to about 57 percent, while mature regions such as Western Europe and developed APAC saw their share decrease during this period.
Total
Life
Health
P&C
North America and developing APAC have contributed ~73% to the total premium growth from 2010 to 2017.
Premiums, €, billions
1
Africa
Africa
2%
Share of
total growth
Life: 14 billion
Nonlife: 7 billion
Countries included:
Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Morocco, South Africa, and Tunisia
2010
2017
Life
Nonlife
3,506
4,683
1,768
1,738
2,171
2,512
Average fixed exchange rate for 2016 used.
Developed
APAC
11%
Share of
total growth
Life: 79 billion
Nonlife: 57 billion
Countries included:
Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan
Developing
APAC
31%
Share of
total growth
Life: 209 billion
Nonlife: 162 billion
Countries included:
China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Phillippines, Thailand, Vietnam
Eastern Europe
1%
Share of
total growth
Life: 2 billion
Nonlife: 11 billion
Latin America
6%
Share of
total growth
Life: 35 billion
Nonlife: 38 billion
Middle East
3%
Share of
total growth
Life: 6 billion
Nonlife: 24 billion
Countries included:
Bahrain, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE
North America
42%
Share of
total growth
Life: 54 billion
Nonlife: 426 billion
Western Europe
4%
Share of
total growth
Life: 3 billion
Nonlife: 50 billion
Opportunities for growth and profitability
Emerging markets such as developing APAC, Latin America, and Africa recorded high profitability and premium growth from 2014 to 2017. Meanwhile, North America has been the worst-performing region by profitability, as its insurance industry struggled with severe losses from natural catastrophes in 2017. Natural calamities in China and Japan have also hindered profitability in the developed APAC region.
To sustain growth, it’s critical for insurers to
have visibility into variations across regions and
lines of business.
Latin America and developing APAC offer tremendous growth opportunities.
Profitability 2014–16, by region, average after-tax RoE, %
GPW growth, 2014–16, CAGR, %
Venezuela excluded as data is skewed because of hyperinflation.
Average fixed exchange rate for 2016 used, nominal figures used.
Mature markets
Emerging markets
25
10
-5
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
(Global GDP) 4
5 (industry average)
10
(industry
average)
Eastern
Europe
Developed
APAC
Western Europe
North America
Africa
Latin America
Developing APAC
1
2
1
2
3
2
2
1
1
Countries not included:
Venezuela
Developed APAC
Developing APAC
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Western Europe
Africa
Developed APAC
Developing APAC
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Western Europe
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Life
P&C and health
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