Shifting Attitudes
to Travel
With shifting consumer attitudes and regulations shaping the future of mobility, companies and investors need a deeper understanding of emerging mobility trends in a rapidly changing sector.
The Future of Mobility: Shifting Attitudes to Travel
Stay ahead of the mobility landscape opportunities and challenges.
The Future of Mobility
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Today we have a global population of 8bn - just over half live in cities. Up to 2050, an additional 1.5bn will be added, most of them will be in cities. This means a lot more travel in bigger cities.
Urban mobility in 2050 will be bigger than ever
Overview
of the world’s population will live in cities
70%
megacities will exist, population >10m
47
67%
Population in Urban Areas
CHINA
Population in Urban Areas
36%
INDIA
Population in Urban Areas
57%
REST OF ASIA-PACIFIC
Population in Urban Areas
45%
AFRICA
Population in Urban Areas
76%
EUROPE
Population in Urban Areas
83%
SOUTH AMERICA
Population in Urban Areas
83%
NORTH AMERICA
+16% in 2050
+15% in 2050
+11% in 2050
+14% in 2050
7 in 2050
MEGACITIES
3
+8% in 2050
+6% in 2050
+6% in 2050
8 in 2050
MEGACITIES
5
9 in 2050
MEGACITIES
6
11 in 2050
MEGACITIES
9
3 in 2050
MEGACITIES
2
MEGACITIES
6 in 2050
6
3 in 2050
MEGACITIES
2
Megacities
Population
Future mobility will be shaped by a focus on key objectives and each of these will require new solutions and investment. The core objectives of the 2050 vision for urban mobility is for the transport of passengers and goods to be sustainable, safe, and available to all.
Core objectives of the 2050 vision for urban mobility
Core Objectives
Green
Safe
Fast
Inspiring
Reliable
Affordable
Accessible
Future urban mobility solutions should be:
Green
Safe
Fast
In London, only 5% of the current car fleet and 11% of the bus fleet are electric vehicles
While certain initiatives are underway to reach these core objectives (e.g., electrification of vehicle fleet, introduction of new rolling stock), there are some clear areas for improvement. However, there is still a long way to go – progress is being made in some areas, whereas some are getting worse.
Initiatives are underway to reach these core objectives
Initiatives
London EV penetration for car fleet in 2030 is expected to be 35%-50%
Inspiring
Reliable
Affordable
Accessible
Green
At present, there is a long way to go to achieve this vision…
but trends are overall positive direction, with initiatives to electrify and improve transport options.
London Example
Safe
London road accidents are down from over 6,000 a year in 2009, and are at their second lowest (after 2020)
Every year, there are over 4,000 incidents on the London tube, and over 3,000 serious accidents on London roads
Fast
London average travel time per 10km was 36 mins 20 secs in 2022.
This has worsened by 1 min 50 secs from 2021
The average peak traffic speed is only 14 km/h in London due to congestion
Inspiring
There are plans to install new rolling stock on several lines, e.g. Piccadilly line getting new trains from 2025
Over 270 tube rolling stock will be over 35 years old by 2030
Reliable
London has been worst city for congestion since pre-COVID, and time lost due to congestion has increased by 7 hours since 2019
The average London driver lost 156 hours due to congestion in 2022
Affordable
Transport has remained around 14% of weekly household spend (except during COVID)
Spending on transport made up c.14% of household spend, and UK rail received £13.3bn in government support in 2021-22
Accessible
10 more stations are planned to become step free over 2023-24
Only 22% of tube stations have full step free access. Around 500k Londoners have disabilities limiting their day-to-day activity
passenger-kilometres will be travelled globally on public transport systems
>100tn
We see 7 key solutions evolving over the next years to resolve some of these issues. Each solution will have a different role to play and have different impacts and timings. There are five key barriers to these solutions. Understanding these barriers provides a perspective to how these solutions are likely to develop and where.
Five key barriers to these solutions
Barriers
Electric Vehicles
Smart City
Autonomous Vehicles
Expansion of mass transit systems
Fast delivery infrastructure
Micro-mobility
Demand-responsive transport
Tech/R&D
Capital Requirements
Space usage
Social Changes
Governance/Politics
Tech/R&D
Low
High
Capital Requirements
Space usage
Frees up space through better utilisation of existing assets
Frees up road space due to shift to shared car ownership and fewer car parks / more efficient use of road networks
Social Changes
Governance/Politics
Decarbonisation of urban mobility systems is a key strategy to help countries meet net zero targets. There are a range of commitments that have been made globally. Western Europe has one of the most ambitious targets.
Key strategies
Strategies
No pledges for net zero
Achieved (self-declared)
2030s
Countries with pledges for net zero (or equivalent) by target year 1
Focus on Europe
2050
2035
30-40%
20-30%
75-85%
0-10%
30-50%
Estimations for fleet penetration of zero emission vehicles
85-90%
L.E.K.'s Mobility survey
L.E.K. tested the social perception of EVs in a recent poll. Looking across other barriers that autonomous vehicles would need to overcome including capital requirements, social changes, and governance.
Survey
3 of 3
2 of 3
1 of 3
Despite the continued evolution of mobility and overall positive outlook, our study found 4 broad themes with the potential to cause disruption.
Looking to the future
The study identified 3 mobility personalities based on their views towards the environment, technology and driving.
Consumer mindsets
Although sentiments towards the future were positive, we looked ahead to 2040, with three potential mobility scenarios to understand consumer reactions, revealing the different generational attitudes around the world:
2040 Vision
Study Results
Accessible
Affordable
Reliable
Inspiring
Fast
Safe
Green
Nearly all urban passenger transport to be zero emission by 2050 (cars and public transport)
AV and smart city tech development to reduce human error and improve safety
Mass transit likely to remain the fastest mode of urban travel, especially through expansion of existing systems
Smart city ecosystem to streamline passenger experience, complemented by new rolling stock
Improved mass transit technology connected by smart city ecosystem enabling greater reliability
Automation of vehicles improves affordability
Improved accessibility through station refurbishment and demand responsive transport
The core objectives of the 2050 vision for urban mobility are achievable through a combination of the solutions.
2050 Vision
Core Objectives
Executive Insights
View Infographic
2040s
2050s
2060s-70s
Green
Safe
Fast
Inspiring
Reliable
Affordable
Accessible
Tech/R&D
Demand-responsive transport
Micro-mobility
Fast delivery infrastructure
Expansion of mass transit systems
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart City
Electric Vehicles
Demand-responsive transport
Micro-mobility
Fast delivery infrastructure
Expansion of mass transit systems
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart City
Electric Vehicles
Low
High
Capital Requirements
Demand-responsive transport
Micro-mobility
Fast delivery infrastructure
Expansion of mass transit systems
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart City
Electric Vehicles
Low
High
Space usage
Demand-responsive transport
Micro-mobility
Fast delivery infrastructure
Expansion of mass transit systems
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart City
Electric Vehicles
Low
High
Social Changes
Demand-responsive transport
Micro-mobility
Fast delivery infrastructure
Expansion of mass transit systems
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart City
Electric Vehicles
Low
High
Governance/
politics
Executive Insights
Over the years, technological advancements, market dynamics, consumer preferences, and regulatory shifts have significantly influenced attitudes towards mobility.
In the next 3 years, a significant percentage of people in various countries plan to purchase an EV.
With a growing focus on green and healthy modes of transportation, there is optimism about the future of mobility innovation, where people are enjoying the exposure to ride sharing and EV’s. However, whilst the barriers to entry for these green modes of transportation continue to fall, e.g. lower EV costs and improved access globally to charging networks, some concerns remain.
L.E.K’s eight-year global study of emerging mobility trends offers unrivalled insight into how mobility is evolving, the key areas of growth and the potential challenges within this landscape.
In the next 3 years, a significant percentage of people plan to purchase an EV.
3 of 3
Although sentiments towards the future were positive, we looked ahead to 2040, with three potential mobility scenarios to understand consumer reactions, revealing the different generational attitudes around the world:
2040 Vision
24-45 year-olds in US, Canada and Australia
Collapsed future
Gen z/Millennials, especially in China (84%)
Continue on Trend
Growth future
18-45 in US or Western Europe are male (54%) or 18-45 in China (87%)
2 of 3
Environmental factors
Political factors
Economic factors
Technological factors
Despite the continued evolution of mobility and overall positive outlook, our study found 4 broad themes with the potential to cause disruption.
Looking to the future
1 of 3
Early adopters of new technology who are willing to pay a premium for environmentally friendly options.
Environmental techies
Mobility
Traditionalists
They prioritise driving enjoyment and cost over environmental concerns.
Have a moderate interest in the environment and technology.
Neutrals
The study identified 3 mobility personalities based on consumer views towards the environment, technology and driving.
Consumer mindsets
Highlights
L.E.K. collaborated with Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX on the 8th Global Mobility Study, to understand the changing regulation and evolving consumer sentiment that are shaping future mobility across the US, Canada, UK, France, Spain, Germany, China and Australia.
Annual Global Mobility Study
Study Insights
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The Future of Mobility
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Global Mobility Study 2024:
Unique Insights into the Future of Mobility
Now in its eighth year, our annual survey offers a potent combination of long-term perspectives and up-to-date insights on the global mobility agenda.
Hear about the trends shaping mobility from L.E.K. Consulting, Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX.
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Tech/R&D
Capital Requirements
Space usage
Social Changes
Governance/Politics
Tech/R&D
Capital Requirements
Frees up space through better utilisation of existing assets
Frees up road space due to shift to shared car ownership and fewer car parks / more efficient use of road networks
Space usage
Social Changes
Governance/Politics
Low
High
Demand-responsive transport
Micro-mobility
Fast delivery infrastructure
Expansion of mass transit systems
Autonomous Vehicles
Smart City
Electric Vehicles
We see 7 key solutions evolving over the next years to resolve some of these issues. Each solution will have a different role to play and have different impacts and timings. There are five key barriers to these solutions. Understanding these barriers provides a perspective to how these solutions are likely to develop and where.
Five key barriers to these solutions
Barriers
Over the years, technological advancements, market dynamics, consumer preferences, and regulatory shifts have significantly influenced attitudes towards mobility.
POPULATION
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